Friday, June 22, 2018

Mandate 2019 - 4

"I had a project for my life which involved 10 years of wandering, then some years of medical studies and, if any time was left, the great adventure of physics."
— Che Guevara (Argentinian, 1928-1967)
Word for the day
Summerize (v)
To protect in hot weather for future use.
Malice towards none
Do we know the proportion of things PM is seen doing, or claiming to have done, in front of cameras, to the all things he does or has done in past four years?
#RTI
 
First random thought this morning
Diggi Raja has announced loudly that he is back from his Narmada Yatra, and would not like to be ignored by the party or media.
Surprisingly six month long rendezvous with Mother Narmada has not changed him a bit. He still looks and talks the same.
It is a matter of investigation whether Mother Narmada has totally lost her powers to influence people who travel her path, or Diggi Raja is such a strong personality that even gods cannot influence him!


Mandate 2019 - 4

The narrative of 2019 general elections is quite similar to 1977, when most of the opposition parties in states north of Vindhyachal united to defeat the dominant Indira Gandhi. Parties in Southern India and Communists however stayed away from the united front called Janta Party.
Janta Party was formed just 2 months ahead of elections in March 1977 and it, along with its allies Akali Dal and Congress for Democracy (Jagjivan Ram), won 345/543 seats securing over 51% of popular votes. The Janta party however collapsed in less than 3yrs, due to multiple inherent contradictions and uninhibited ambitions and selfish agenda of its leaders.
An encore of 1977 experience was attempted in 1989 through formation of a National Front of regional parties under the leadership of Charismatic N. T. Rama Rao. Congress rebel V. P. Singh was the convener of the front, and also had parties from South as its constituents. A minority government was formed by V. P. Singh with outside support from BJP. The government and the Front however did last no longer than Janta Party. The infamous Mandal vs. Mandir clash brought the minority government down in less than two years.
The experiment was again tried in 1996 with formation of United Front of 13 regional parties and met the same fate as the previous two attempts. A minority government was formed with outside support from Congress Party, which met the same fate as Janta Party and National Front governments. The government and the Front collapsed within 2yrs.
There is an attempt to retry the experiment again in the name of Maha Gathbandhan (Grand Alliance). Many regional parties have shown interest in formation of a grand all India alliance to defeat BJP led by PM Modi.
There is little evidence to suggest that the outcome of the experiment could be any different this time, unless the pre poll alliance is led by a national party, i.e, Indian National Congress, like in 2009.
This looks less likely unless Congress accepts that its candidate may not be the Prime Minister, even if the alliance wins a majority in the election. The indications so far suggest that INC may not be keen on joining any government where its candidate in not PM. The situation might change after results of the assembly election in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are announced later this year. as in all these states Congress has much at stake. A loss here would weaken it further and make it amenable to accept pre-conditions of alliance partners. On the other hand a victory will embolden the party and instigate it to set its terms for joining any alliance.
Secondly, like the three previous episodes this grand alliance shall also remain infected by vested interests, parochial agenda and uninhibited ambitions of various regional satraps.
I shall embark on a nationwide journey in late July-Early August to assess the mood of the nation, and share my thoughts with readers.
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