Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Mandate 2019 - 2

"I have a wish. It as a fear as well - that in my end will be my beginning."
— Che Guevara (Argentinian, 1928-1967)
Word for the day
Turophile (n)
A connoisseur or lover of cheese.
Malice towards none
Has Delhi CM been successful in drawing attention of all concerned to the issue he wanted to raise?
By the way what is the issue he is trying to draw attention towards!!!
First random thought this morning
“Politics is the study of ideal social organization (it is not, as one ·might suppose, the 'art and science of capturing and keeping office); monarchy, aristocracy, democracy, socialism, anarchism, feminism - these are the dramatis personae of political philosophy. —Story of Philosophy by Will Durant
Politicians of the day seek to turn politics into a science of capturing and keeping office. BJP President Amit Shah is obvious champion of the game. He claims to have successfully created a system to "manage" voters at house level.
The moot point remains, how politics would become people centric, from being purely power centric!

Mandate 2019 - 2

The prime minister Narendra Modi led NDA incumbent government was elected in 2014 on three primary planks (a) corruption free administration; (b) faster and sustainable development; and (c) inclusive growth encompassing all sections of the society and all regions of the country.
Many voters, who had traditionally never supported BJP, did vote for PM Modi in 2014. This included voters belonging to minority communities and socially backward classes. The traditional BJP voters (urban middle class, upper caste, traders, small businessmen) very enthusiastically canvassed for PM Modi.
Four years later, while jury is still out to judge whether the PM Modi led government has delivered on its key promises, the voters do not appear as enthusiastic about PM Modi as they were in 2014.
Recent interactions with people from cross section of society, indicate that—
(a)   A sizeable number of voters from minority community and socially backward sections of the society, who voted for BJP in 2014, still remain aligned with PM Modi. Though many of them might have returned to their previous allegiances.
(b)   BJP has failed in meaningfully enlarging its support base after astounding 2014 victory; though it has gained sizeable foothold in north eastern states.
(c)    The traditional voter of BJP is annoyed and disappointed. There is strong perception that (a) the government has failed in creating jobs; (b) MSME businesses are distressed due to implementation of GST and demonetization; and (c) BJP has ignored the core RSS agenda of Swadeshi, Uniform Civil Code, Ram Temple, supremacy of Hindutva etc. to appease minorities, poor, farmers and socially backward.
Though TINA is still holding this block of voters at ransom, there are indications that many of them may abstain from voting in 2019, thus reducing positive vote for BJP.
(d)   Congress is still a loser in the game of perception. Voters find Its leadership rather uninspiring. Under the circumstances, the chances are that any erosion in BJP's 2014 tally will add to regional parties, and we might end up with 1996 type situation.
Please note that this view is totally based on interactions with a small number of people, and may not necessarily reflect the mood of voters at large. Also, we still have almost 10months before voting begins (assuming it to be on regular schedule). The situation may change, albeit not dramatically, according to the events taking place in the interim.
The point to be pondered about is whether TINA should be allowed to determine the fate of 1.30bn Indians, or we need to have a positive reason to support PM Modi.......to continue
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