"To avoid criticism, do nothing, say nothing, and be
nothing."
—Elbert Hubbard (American,
1859-1915)
Word for the day
Harrumph(v)
1. To clear the throat
audibly in a self-important manner.
2. To express oneself
gruffly.
Malice towards none
Digvijay Singh is doing
3300km Narmada Parikarma and Lalu Yadav's family is performing a variety of
religious rituals.
It is comforting to note
that in India, still "Secular" does not mean
"Non-believer".
First random thought this morning
A number of opposition parties
in India facing existential threat. They can clearly see that another term for
the incumbent government will materially erode their base. They are therefore naturally
in a hurry to unite so that they could at least present a realistic challenge
to PM Modi.
The unfortunate part is that in
their desperation, they seem to have forgotten that they would need an
aggressive development agenda to beat PM Modi. Mere "Modi hatao"
slogan may not be sufficient.
Literature over history
The latest OECD Economic Outlook forecast (see
here) succinctly summarizes the "New Normal" in just one
paragraph, as follows:
"The mood in the global economy has brightened during the
last year. Confidence indicators, industrial production, headline measures of
employment, and cross-border trade flows have improved in most economies.
However, this still-modest cyclical expansion is not yet robust enough to yield
a durable improvement in potential output or to reduce persistent inequalities.
Financial vulnerabilities could be realised by policy and geopolitical shocks.
Compared to the 20-year pre-crisis average against which expectations have been
set, OECD per capita GDP growth remains over ½ percentage point weaker and
global growth overall, projected to rise to just above 3½ per cent by 2018,
also lags. In sum, the global economic outlook is better, but not good enough
to sustainably improve citizens’ well-being."
The economic growth for OECD countries is expected to stagnate around 2%
level, at least till 2018. Whereas, for non-OECD nations, it's expected to rise
to 4.8% in 2018. Overall world growth is not expected to remain stagnant around
~3.5% during 2017 and 2018. Most of the non-OECD growth is coming from just
three G-20 members, viz., India, China and Indonesia; though China is likely to
continue decelerating from 6.9% in 2015 to 6.4% in 2018. India is also
projected to grow at lower pace from 7.9% in 2015 to 7.7% in 2018.
The OECD outlook report shows that economic inequities in
developed countries have risen sharply post global financial crisis in 2008.
...as the real wage growth remains much below the pre-crisis averag
Wide acceptance of lower growth and higher concentration of
economic power may not be a simple economic phenomenon, in my view. This may
likely have far serious repercussions.
For one, it threatens the very core of the developed world, i.e.,
democracy and free markets.
Two, the New Normal, seeks to accept the dominance of Economic
Elite over condescending administration.
Three, it strengthens the social dissent, that is presently
manifesting in seemingly irrational socio-political decisions like Brexit &
election of Donald Trump and stray incidents of violent strikes. This dissent
may at some point explode to take form of a more violent, more popular and much
larger movement. I am reading literature written during 1890-1930 to find
clues. For history books look inadequate in presenting the true picture....to
continue
No comments:
Post a Comment