"There is a
strange reluctance on the part of most people to admit they enjoy life."
—William Lyon Phelps (American, 1865-1943)
Word
for the day
Draconian (adj)
Rigorous; unusually severe or cruel
Malice
towards none
UAE Army contingent in
Republic Day parade, when ex Pak army chief Raheel Sharif is leading the Saudi
led military alliance - interesting times.
First random
thought this morning
Budget 2017: After so much threatening and posturing, it would be totally
in order, if the government introduces some meaningful incentives for promoting
voluntary tax compliance in the forthcoming budget. Materially lower tax rate
could be ne such incentive.
This time India is in playing 11
In past one century, the global community has done many
experiments to find a suitable global order. The year 2017, marks 100yrs of two
very important global events.
In 1917, Russian revolution successfully dismantled the Tsarist
autocracy and laid the foundation of USSR. In the following decades, many
smaller independent European states would become subservient to a mighty
Russian socialist army, and together become one pole in the emerging bi-polar
world, forever shrouded by the specter of cold war.
In the same year, USA decided to join the War as an associate of
the Allies - a development that tilted the scale in favor of the Allies,
bringing the War to an end in 1918. In the following decades, USA would evolve
into a formidable military and economic power, that would lead the democratic
allies to become the second pole in the emerging bi-polar world.
The imperialist global order that existed since past couple of
centuries, began to dismantle. Many colonies of European empires would get
freedom. The British empire that was built in three centuries and covered
almost one fourth of the world population and area before the War, would
completely dismantle in the following three decades.
It took three decades for the new order to consolidate. The new
order was characterized by UN, NATO, WARSAW, Mao, Israel, NAM, Bretton Woods,
World Bank, Cold War, energy cartel (OPEC), et. al. The globalization that was
a norm prior to the first War, was completely overpowered by the forces of
nationalism and protectionism.
The new order lasted till the German Wall fell and USSR
disintegrated. This unleashed a new wave of globalization. Global Trade (WTO),
Internet, dematerialization of assets, Europe integration into a single market,
China's entry into mainstream global trade (through WTO), free flow of capital,
G-20, BRICS, numerous FTAs, global war on Islamic fundamentalism, energy
security, climate control and global financial crisis, dominated this phase.
The recent events, especially in the past one year, give an
impression that the extant global order may be crumbling under pressure, as the
forces of nationalism and protectionism are rearing their head again.
There are two prominent debates that are currently going on.
The first debate seeks to challenge the very premise -
"whether the current state of globalization is reversible at all?"
The second debate accepts the inevitability of the
de-globalization, and is therefore focusing on the shape of the new order that
would be emerging in next few years.
On previous occasion, when India was mostly a controlled and closed
economy, we just suffered some collateral damage. This time our exposure to the
global economy and geo-politics is little higher and deeper; and so would be
the impact. I would like to share my views on this in a later post
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