"The belief that
youth is the happiest time of life is founded on a fallacy. The happiest person
is the person who thinks the most interesting thoughts, and we grow happier as
we grow older."
—William Lyon Phelps (American, 1865-1943)
Word
for the day
Fallal (n)
A bit of finery; a showy article of dress.
Malice
towards none
In his attire, PM emulates the popular leaders like Jawaharlal Nehru and
Indira Gandhi and not the great leaders like Gandhi, Shastri and JP.
Surely, he will be mentioned in the history books as a great prime
minister who changed the course of economic policy and foreign policy of India.
But not as a leader who was venerated by 125cr Indians.
But who cares!
First random
thought this morning
Budget 2017: Under the given circumstances, the government could
take either of two approaches in the forthcoming budget:
(a) Give a big dose of
steroid to abate the pain caused by the currency ban in an already slowing economy.
(b) Inflict a bigger pain,
so that people forget the pain caused by the currency ban.
Advantage BJP in UP
The general elections in India are famously projected as the final
match of a tournament, in which many semi-finals are played. The strange part
is that most of these semi-finals are inconsequential for the final match.
One such semi-final for the final match schedule to be played in
summer of 2019, is going to start soon. In this five game match, the game to be
played in Lucknow is being cited as the most important. The popular projection
is that the winner in Lucknow game will be the favorite to win 2019 final.
There is though little empirical evidence to substantiate this claim. In past
three decades in particular, the results of the Lucknow game were mostly
inconsequential for the subsequent finals in New Delhi.
In my view, the semi-finals to be played later this year in Gandhi
Nagar, and next year in Bhopal and Raipur would be more interesting and
relevant for the 2019 finals.
Anyways, since the Lucknow game is trending these day, it is
better that I talk about that game only.
I visited the battlefield UP during my year end break.
Incidentally, this was the time when the team currently holding the title
(Samajwadi Party or SP) announced major injuries.
While driving through the vast expanse of the state glittering
with the golden mustard flowers, I met many people, observed a lot things and
formed some opinions. I may share some of the key observations and opinion with
the readers.
Politics
1. The political
consciousness of the people of Uttar Pradesh, has evolved materially in past one
decade. Contrary to the popular narrative, the caste and religion, though still
relevant, are not the primary considerations in the voters' mind. Nowhere, the
voters are inclined to elect a candidate purely on the basis of caste or
religion.
2. SP has been successful
in projecting a strong personal identity of the CM Akhilesh Yadav, as distinct
from the traditional caste-religion based political identity of Mulayam Singh
Yadav and his brothers. BSP chief Mayawati has mostly failed in getting out of
the old caste-religion paradigm. Rahul Gandhi led Congress continues to be as
confused as ever. BJP is going into the fray hiding behind Pm Modi mask.
3 It is clear that the
main contest is between Akhilesh Yadav led SP and PM Modi motivated BJP. A
Congress and BSP alliance could add a third dimension to the contest, but such
alliance would not be in contention. The only positive in favor of BSP is the
better law and order record of previous BSP government.
4. In the last elections,
the principle opposition SP had set the agenda and all other parties just
responded to it. This time agenda has been set by PM Modi himself. Financial
inclusion, compliance and fight against corruption is the primary agenda, with
the usual development plank providing an active sub-plot.
5. I observed good support
for PM Modi amongst the youth, in the Yadav majority areas of Central UP; women
in the BSP's stronghold areas in Bundelkhand and Rohillkhand and Congress
pocket Burroughs of Amethi, Sultanpur and Rai Bareilly. Leaders like Uma
Bharti, Smriti Irani (surprise!), Rajnath Singh, Kalyan Singh are known and
remembered. Atal Bihari Vajpayee continues to be popular, especially amongst
minorities. Amit Shah is unpopular with the locals. Like 2014 general
elections, RSS is working overtime in these elections, unlike the 2012 assembly
elections.
6. Mayawati appears losing
support amongst her core dalit support group, especially young women.
Economy
1. The economy of the
state is tough to understand. The trade and industry (except sugar) are
generally stressed, like in other states. The rural sector does not appear
buoyant either. But that might have something to do with recent factors like
poor realization of potato crop; poor quality of cane crop and less than
expected rise in cane support price. Otherwise, rural populace appears
satisfied with the development on the front of electricity, road connectivity,
primary education, government support for old, girls, and minorities. This is
visible in stable public and private sector consumption.
2. Employment condition
continues to be poor. The tendency to migrate is rising much faster amongst the
educated.
3. The currency ban has
been mostly forgotten and forgiven, except by traders. There is little impact
on the farm sector, but trade is hurting badly.
4. Real estate sector in
the state is in distress. But it has more to do with the excessive rise in
prices and euphoria during 2007-2010 phase, and less with the change in
normalized demand. The urbanization is progressing well and demand for housing
remains good, especially in urban areas. The lower interest rates are seen
helping the demand further.
Society
1. The social divide on
religious lines has strengthened in past few years.
2. The social divide on
caste line is weakening.
3. Contrary to the popular
perception, the social divide appears stronger in urban areas, as compared to
rural areas. College going youth appears to be in favor of discrimination on
the basis of religion.
To sum up, though it is still early days, I would give my
customary assessment of the election outcome.
In my view BJP will emerge as the single largest party, if
Congress allies with SP or BSP. Otherwise, BJP is poised to get a strong
majority on its own.
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