Thought for the day
"Lulled in the countless chambers of the brain, our thoughts
are linked by many a hidden chain; awake but one, and in, what myriads
rise!"
— Alexander Pope
(English, 1688-1744)
Word for the day
Sublime (adj)
Complete; absolute; utter; supreme or outstanding.
Elevated or lofty in thought, language, etc. e.g., Paradise Lost is sublime poetry.
Malice towards none
Have the surgical strikes in PoK by Indian Army taken the
government beyond any criticism?
First random thought this morning
The farmers in the border areas of Punjab have been evacuated by
the Indian Army for security reasons. Many of them have the crops standing
ready for harvest.
I am sure the State will compensate for them adequately for the
financial loss. But the loss of precious food grain will not get compensated.
Nifty:
tighten your belt
As pointed out last week, in September the divergence between the
MoM change in headline Nifty value and the change in MoM average traded value
has widened to the largest since March 2016.
There is enough evidence to suggest that this divergence shall get
minimized in the month of October. In simple terms it implies that Nifty shall
move in a much larger range this month, mostly trading in the upper half of the
range and perhaps settling around or below the average.
Given the present chart patterns and placement of momentum
indicators, it appears that after a week of consolidation, we may see a sharp
jump higher in Nifty, before it settles down little lower to end the month with
decent gains.
At the same time, it is critical to note that the intermediate
uptrend from the intraday lows of September (8555.20) could be the last such up
move in the larger up move that started from February intraday low (6825.80).
I expect Nifty to record an intraday high between 9370-9410 in
this up move that may last anywhere between 3-13 weeks. A 8-10% shall likely
follow post the tryst with the new peak.
In short technically expect a 8-10% Nifty up move from the current
level followed by a 8-10% correction; all in the next 6months.
Last week, Nifty has defended the 8606-8630 range (on closing
basis) despite rise in momentum. This morning there is nothing to suggest that
this support base will be broken meaningfully this week also.
Bank Nifty though is looking shaky. As suggested last week, I would
continue to avoid banks for any short term trading.
No comments:
Post a Comment