"Let my name stand among those
who are willing to bear ridicule and reproach for the truth's sake, and so earn
some right to rejoice when the victory is won."
-Louisa May Alcott (American,
1832-1888)
Word for the day
Febrile (adj)
Feverish, with fever
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards
none
The so called "Modi
effect" has been completely neutralized from equity and forex market.
Time is now to decide - if a
new beginning should be made or let things be like that!
First things first
Expectation is a
strange animal. More you beat it, stronger it rises. Consistent
underachievement is perhaps the only way to kill it.
The national media widely and prominently reported the fall of
Sensex to May 2014 level when the incumbent government assumed charge from the
outgoing UPA government. INR is weaker by over 10% vs USD, since then.
The astounding victory of NDA had raised staggering expectations
in all sections of the society. Mandate 2014 was unmistakably for a person who projected
himself as epitome of pragmatism, development, inclusivity, nationalism and
good governance. He therefore does not enjoy the luxury of hiding behind the
shields like limitation of coalition, party ideology and conventional political
paradigms. People afforded him complete freedom to deliver on the promised
change and expected an express delivery from him.
After 15months of regime change, the mood at best could be
described as that of circumspection.
First to set the record straight, I note that the total market
capitalization of companies listed on BSE has risen to INR92trn from INR82trn
at the end of May 2014. The real effective exchange rate of INR (REER) for the
basket of 6 as well as 36curremcies is also higher as compared to May'14 level.
So, if equity market and INR valuation is any criteria to evaluate
the performance of a government, it has not been bad, especially in light of
global uncertainties and volatility.
Second, I had been frequently highlighting that Narendra Modi
unmistakably has the administrative and strategic prowess to drive the change.
However, it would be preposterous to assume that he can do it on his own. He
needs the support and cooperation of all in his colossal endeavor. So far there
is little evidence of cooperation from the fellow politicians (including from
BJP, allies, and opposition) and business community. The problem therefore is
that a vast majority of 1.26bn Indians is expecting Narendra Modi to deliver
for them, at least on economic front, but no one is willing to give anything
from their side.
Least of all, the populace which has grown to be non-compliant by
habit, not necessarily by intention, is not even willing to change habits like
spitting on roads, violating traffic rules, encroaching on pavements in front
of their house/shops, and exploiting domestic helps and child labor etc.
PM has met the captains of Indian industry yesterday. I am not
privy to what transpired in the meeting, but from anecdotal evidence and media
reports I can guess that it was nothing useful - in the sense that industry
sought favors which the government is not in a position to grant and offered
nothing in return.
In my view, two tasks need to top the list of priorities for the
government–
(a) Bridging the multitude
of deficits prevalent in the country, especially trust deficit, governance
deficit, compliance deficit, skill deficit, social and physical infrastructure
deficit, and capital deficit. Though the Prime Minister has shown vision to
achieve past of this task, there is little evidence of execution on this front.
(b) Bringing India into a
state of equilibrium by removing social, and regional, economic imbalances.
This task cannot be accomplished without active cooperation of all the states.
So far no reason to be optimist on this count.......to continue
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