"What it lies in our power to
do, it lies in our power not to do."
—Aristotle (Greek, 384-322BC)
Word for the day
Enervate (v)
To deprive of force or
strength; destroy the vigor of; weaken; enfeeble, debilitate, Sap.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards
none
Congress and Apple Inc.
......hmm........hmmm........hmmmmmm.
Clear majority for NDA in Bihar!
Somehow the Bihar election has become a major event for the
markets. Many financials experts have reported on the probable outcome of the
elections and subsequent impact on the Indian politics and economy.
Reading many of these lengthy report, I am reminded of the song
Eer Bir Phatte made popular by Amitabh Bachchan in 1996 (see here). The song depicts a poor
guy who always tries to imitate his smarter friends but never succeeds.
Regardless, I am also trying to present my report on the Bihar elections.
Speaking to many people living across Bihar, people from Bihar now
living in Delhi and Mumbai having close ties with the people back home, and
trustworthy political activists, political workers, NGO operators & my
colleagues who have travelled to the state extensively in the recent times I
have concluded as follows:
The election
(a) BJP led NDA may emerge
as a clear winner in the State. Except for a few pockets in South Central
Bihar, the alliance may dominate the entire State.
(b) Like 2010 and in line
with the national trend of past 4 years, the winning alliance will get a clear
majority. (170-210 seats out of 243)
(c) Congress may not do
much better than the 2010 elections in which it managed to win four seats.
(d) Nitish Kumar led JDU
will be a major loser in this election, but will retain the principal
opposition roll.
(e) RJD will be the
biggest loser in the election in terms of credibility and sustainability.
Political fallout
(1) The non-Congress ruling
parties in Odisha, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will become more cautious of BJP
and may become reluctant to cooperate too much at the center.
(2) The Congress with its
back firmly stuck in the wall, may become more belligerent in the Parliament.
It may also see acceleration in exodus in poll bound states of UP, West Bengal,
Assam, etc.
(3) PM Narendra Modi and
BJP President Amit Shah will be able to silence the isolated voices of
dissention within the party.
Economic consequences
(A) Expect almost immediate
acceleration in public spending on infrastructure development.
(B) The improved law &
order conditions may stem the exodus of talented, wealth and wealthy from the
state.
(C) No immediate
improvement in industrial infrastructure and agriculture expected.
My team is planning an extensive 10day trip to the State. Shall
get back with first hand assessment by middle of next month.
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