Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Get an idea, Sir

Thought for the day
"It was one of those March days when the sun shines hot and the wind blows cold: when it is summer in the light, and winter in the shade."
-          Charles Dickens (English, 1812-1870)
Word for the day
Voluble (adj)
Characterized by a ready flow of speech.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
Tell me why Delhi assembly election results should reverberate in Bihar election later this year?

Get an idea, Sir

A friend posted me a recording of December 2012 Lok Sabha debate on the issue of allowing 100% FDI in multi brand retail trade. It is still amusing to see the tears the Members of Parliament shed for the poor street vendors and local grocery stores.
Having switch the sides to the other side of aisle in the Parliament, many who vehemently opposed Wal-Mart et. al., are proud to welcome Alibaba and boast about the success of local Snapdeal and Flipkart (who by the way are mostly funded by foreigners). A multitude of online grocery stores has also mushroomed threatening the business of local grocery store and vegetable vendor. These too are funded materially by foreign funds.
It is widely acknowledged that in India e-retailing is becoming the next big thing after Maruti 800 and mobile telephony. The idea has been embraced by the people at large. There is no political or civil society or popular opposition to the idea. Even though the outcome is not materially different from the likely outcome of allowing 100% FDI in multi brand retail trade.
The point being that the idea whose time has come always drives the policy. The vice versa is seldom true. There are few examples where an idea driven by policy has attained success before its due time.
Those watching the Union budget too closely for "idea driving policies" may note that it is only a matter of time when the government of day will roll out red carpet for Wal-Mart et. al. We have done that in automobile and telecommunication. We shall do that in Insurance, banking, healthcare, transportation, and education also in due course - not because the government wants to drive this idea, but because people would have embraced the idea.
Non-conventional power is one idea that is catching up fast with the people. A road trip across villages of UP and Bihar would show you that "Chinese Power Bank" are the hottest FMCG products for the power starved. These power banks are used to keep mobile phone operational during regular long power cuts.
Small roof top and portable solar panels is one idea whose time has come, in my view. Rising cost of regular electricity and poor availability will continue driving consumers in smaller towns and villages towards this renewable source. I believe this certainly has the potential to become even a bigger market than mobile telephony and Maruti 800.
In my view, instead of bothering too much about fiscal deficit, if the government invests the current savings in fossil fuel subsidies in developing the solar user base on mission basis, it could materially enhance our country's energy security and energy efficiency on sustainable basis.
On Delhi election, I feel - (a) If AAP wins, Congress may lose another state forever like UP and Bihar; (b) If BJP wins, with no power and money AAP will become irrelevant in five years. Delhi elections therefore have been a fight for survival between AAP and Delhi Pradesh Congress. For extrapolating the Delhi results to Bihar and UP, a study of BSP history is suggested.

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