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Showing posts from October, 2014

QE is dead, long live QE

Thought for the day "The most common lie is that which one lies to himself; lying to others is relatively an exception." -           Friedrich Nietzsche (German, 1844-1900) Word for the day Indignant (adj) Feeling, characterized by, or expressing strong displeasure at something considered unjust, offensive, insulting, or base: (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Does our Constitution allows me the freedom to express my views on how women, children or men should dress, so long I am not imposing my views on anyone including my family? QE is dead, long live QE US Federal Reserve (The Fed) finally brought the curtains down on its two year old bond buying program, popularly known as "QE3", being the third round of quantitative easing post Lehman collapse in early winter of 2008. The gradual withdrawal ("taper") of the US$85bn a month buying program had started early this y...

Conventional wisdom

Thought for the day "We hear only those questions for which we are in a position to find answers." -           Friedrich Nietzsche (German, 1844-1900) Word for the day incommunicado (adv or adj) Without the means or right to communicate. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day The color of money is never black. Money in fact has no color of its own. It usually acquires the color of hand holding it. Conventional wisdom I have been insisting for past many months, rather annoyingly to some, that given the uncertainties that underscore the present global financial and macroeconomic conditions, it is critical to anticipate and understand the risks – evident, potential and unforeseen; and calibrate the investment strategy and portfolios accordingly, without losing the sight of the opportunity waiting on the horizon to be seized. "Easier said than done" - yes ...

Half empty or half full - II

Thought for the day ”Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you." -           Friedrich Nietzsche (German, 1844-1900) Word for the day Odontoid (adj) Of or resembling a tooth. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day If your right eye causes you to stumble, gouge it out and throw it away. It is better for you to lose one part of your body than for your whole body to be thrown into hell. And if your right hand causes you to stumble, cut it off and throw it away. It is better for you to lose one part of your body than for your whole body to go into hell. (Mathew 5:29-30, New testament) Half empty or half full - II ...continuing from yesterday The domestic environment appears reasonably stable at present. Macro indicators are showing signs of bott...

It's half full

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Thought for the day ”You have your way. I have my way. As for the right way, the correct way, and the only way, it does not exist." -           Friedrich Nietzsche (German, 1844-1900) Word for the day Realpolitik (n) Political realism or practical politics, especially policy based on power rather than on ideals. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day RSS is now virtually ruling the country. Enthused by success in Maharashtra election, MIM is now seeking to spread in UP and Bihar. Who should worry most? It's half full I have no problem in accepting that swinging between greed and fear, the investor in me is little confused. Nothing unusual. Conflicting signals from global and domestic economies and financial markets do often put you in such a quandary. The indications from the global markets are such that the decoupling of G3 is taking place at rather ac...

Investment strategy for Samvat 2071

Markets pregnant with hope The Vikram Samvat 2071 begins on a positive note. The government appears in full control of the situation. Unlike past five years, no one is talking about paralysis, non-governance and corruption. The macroeconomic indicators are stable and look poised to improve over next couple of years. Despite poor monsoon, the government has been able to reign food prices within controllable limits. The measures taken by the incumbent government in past five months indicate clearly that a large part of the problem was perhaps administrative in nature. An assertive leadership with a decisive  mandate and progressive strategy ensures that administrative efficiencies are improved materially. The government so far has taken a non-confrontationist approach to legislative hindrances. However, recent electoral victories should embolden it to pursue legislative agenda aggressively. No normal delivery this time also Some women have th...

An act of desperation

Thought for the day ”In the name of God, stop a moment, cease your work, look around you." -           Leo Tolstoy (Russian, 1828-1910) Word for the day Xyst (n) A garden walk planted with trees. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day This question is for all those who talk passionately about nationalism, honesty and governance. Name the seven sister states of north east, and their respective chief ministers? Do you know who is Manik Sarkar? An act of desperation Despite deep invasion of technology in my normal life, I have still kept the monkey in me alive. I like to do many things in the traditional way. Reading morning newspaper is one of these things. I like to break my fast every morning while reading the latest news from around the country and familiarizing myself with divergent views of various experts. Not to say, I like the aroma of newsprint as much as I like my...

Good times are dawning

Thought for the day ”He never chooses an opinion; he just wears whatever happens to be in style." -           Leo Tolstoy (Russian, 1828-1910) Word for the day Ethos (n) The fundamental character or spirit of a culture; the underlying sentiment that informs the beliefs, customs, or practices of a group or society;. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Major seat contributors for BJP in Haryana" Robert Vadra - 10 Seats O. P. Chautala - 10 Seats AAP - 10 Seats Dera Sacha Sauda - 10 Seats Navin Jindal - 3 Seats Others (including Modi and Amit Shah) - 4 Seats Good times are dawning The results of just concluded Maharashtra and Haryana assembly elections have confirmed that the transformation of Indian socio-political order that begun with summer general elections is progressing well. I have had the annoyance of watching, reading and lis...

Change in market context

Thought for the day ”In all history there is no war which was not hatched by the governments, the governments alone, independent of the interests of the people, to whom war is always pernicious even when successful." -           Leo Tolstoy (Russian, 1828-1910) Word for the day Bel-esprit (n) A person of great wit or intellect. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day I am a young political aspirant. Please give me two good reasons why should I join the Congress Party. Change in market context The domestic political events and global market movement last week highlight a change in short term market context. The reverses suffered by the Congress Party in recent Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections have further strengthened the ruling BJP. The government is now in an even better position to pursue its socio-economic agenda of inclusive growth. The results a...

Cheaper food prices do not cure sick metabolism

Thought for the day ”Better a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without." -           Confucius (Chinese,551-479BC) Word for the day Mythomane (n) A person with a strong or irresistible propensity for fantasizing, lying, or exaggerating. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Should Congress sack A. K. Anthony for misguiding the party on reasons for loss in 2014 general elections? Cheaper food prices do not cure sick metabolism The conspiracy theories on falling oil prices are stretching it too far, in my view. I guess, most theories ignore that materially lower prices could cause more harm to the global economy than the higher prices. It is pertinent to note that the breakeven price for North America shale gas, which is popularly believed to be the primary reason behind fall in global crude prices, is much higher. Since 2007 the fiscal breakeven for crude oil has ...