Saturday, February 2, 2019

Interim Union Budget FY20 - Election speech to wrong audience

Interim Union Budget FY20 - Election speech to wrong audience
The interim Union Finance Minister of India presented an interim Union Budget for FY20 today in the parliament.
Breaking the convention, the acting finance minister decided to launch couple of major schemes having material fiscal implications for the prospective governments.
He also announced some changes in income tax rates arguing that these are urgent and cannot wait for four months!
The acting finance minister took the opportunity to make an emphatic election speech, and virtually presented the party's manifesto for forthcoming general election.
The focus of the speech was clearly to lure voters from farming, urban poor and middle class groups, but was presented to wrong audience.
Key Budget announcements
Beta version of Universal Basic Income
The minister announced annual grant of Rs6000 to all farmers owning less than 2 hectare land in the country. Under the “Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN)”, every year 3 installments of Rs2000 each would be transferred to bank accounts of farmers owning less than 2hectare (appx 5acre) of land. The government expects around 12crore small and marginal farmer families (appx 50% of the country's population) to benefit from the scheme. It is not clear whether this scheme would be applicable to landless famers also.
The scheme comes into effect from December 2018, and Rs20000cr have been provided in FY19 revised estimates for the scheme.
Rs75,000cr have been provided for the scheme in the FY20 budget.
This is a welcome step and should help the farmers to some extent. However, the negative aspect is that the government has cut allocation to 16 out of 19 Green Revolution Schemes (crop productivity improvement efforts) to allocate money for this scheme. This is pure short sightedness and populism.
Pension Scheme for Urban Poor
The minister announced a mega pension yojana namely 'Pradhan Mantri Shram-Yogi Maandhan' for the unorganized sector workers with monthly income upto Rs15,000. This scheme shall provide them an assured monthly pension of Rs3,000 from the age of 60 years. An eligible worker joining the scheme at the age of 29 years will have to contribute only Rs100 per month till the age of 60 years. Similarly, a worker joining the scheme at 18 years, will have to contribute as little as Rs55 per month only. The Government will deposit equal matching share in the pension account of the worker every month. The government expects at least 100mn workers to avail the benefit of this scheme.
This again is a welcome step.
However, the moot point is that what would be the relevance of Rs3000/month after 30years!
Railways' improvement
The acting finance minister, who happens to be the Railways Minister also, expects the operational efficiency (expenditure to income ratio) of Railways to improve materially from 98.4% in FY18 to 95% in FY20. The Railways’ overall capital expenditure programme is of Rs1,58,658cr, that sounds pretty disappointing considering the mega plans already announced for upgradation, improvement and expansion of railways network in India.
Tax proposals
1.    The tax rebate under section 87A increased from Rs2500 to Rs12500. With this the effective tax liability of tax payers with a total taxable income less than Rs5,00,000 would be NIL.
2.    Standard deduction for salaried tax payers increased to Rs50,000 from Rs.40,000 earlier.
3.    Second self occupied house exempted from payment of tax on notional rent.
4.    TDS threshold for interest on saving accounts raised from Rs10,000 to Rs40,000.
5.    TDS threshold for rent on commercial properties raised from Rs1,80,000 to Rs2,40,000.
6.    For taxpayers having a long term capital gain of upto Rs2cr, the exemption under section 54 could be availed for two house properties, instead of one earlier.
7.    For affordable housing developers benefits under section 80-IBA extended for one more year, i.e., for the project approved till 31 March 2020.
8.    Period of exemption on tax on notional rent on unsold inventory for real estate developers increased to 2yrs from one year earlier.
10 point development program for next decade
1.    To build physical as well as social infrastructure for a $10trn economy and to provide ease of living through next generation infrastructure of roads, railways, ports, urban transport, gas & electric transmission, inland waterways, quality educational system.
2.    To create a Digital India reaching every sector of the economy, every corner of the country and impacting the life of all Indians.
3.    To make India a pollution free nation with green Mother Earth and blue skies. India to drive on Electric Vehicles, and Renewable becoming a major source of energy supply.
4.    To expand rural industrialization using modern digital technologies to generate massive employment. This will be built upon the Make in India approach to develop grass-roots level clusters, structures and mechanisms encompassing the MSMEs, village industries and start-ups spread in every nook and corner of the country.
5.    To clean rivers, with safe drinking water to all Indians, sustaining and nourishing life and efficient use of water in irrigation using micro-irrigation techniques.
6.    Besides, Sagarmala, to develop inland waterways faster.
7.    To become the launch-pad of satellites for the World and placing an Indian astronaut into space by 2022.
8.    To make India self-sufficient in food, exporting to the world to meet their food needs and producing food in the most organic way.
9.    To make India healthy, by providing a distress free health care and a functional and comprehensive wellness system for all.
10.  To make India Minimum Government Maximum Governance nation.
 
Some key budget statistics
Fiscal improvement paused

 
Reliance on small savings increased to lessen market borrowing
 
 

 
Some key targets missed

 
Public sector balance sheet stretching

Friday, February 1, 2019

Growth slip into slow lane

Some food for thought
"If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles."
—Sun Tzu (Chinese Philosopher, Ancient Times)
Word for the day
Divertissement (n)
A diversion or entertainment.
 
First thought this morning
Sun Tzu, a Chinese philosopher and military strategist during Zhou dynasty, is credited with one of the best treatise on war strategies, titled The Art of War.
A casual stroll through social media timelines is sufficient to realize that on both the side of the border millions of war strategists have mushroomed. In fact not only in the subcontinents, the people sitting in faraway lands like USA, UK, Canada, Australia etc, are also kind enough to offer free expert advice to the people and forces on both the sides of the LoC.
Besides, the strategists, we have an army of cheerleaders and supporters. They are tirelessly cheering every threat, claim and action of their respective leaders and forces.
Overall, it is once in a decade period to feel proud of our nationality, valor of our forces, and grit of our leadership.
I strongly feel a flip through visit to Art of War, could be useful.
Sun Tzu said, the art of war is of vital importance to the State, because it is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin. before engaging in any war, the leader therefore must be ensure that people are in complete accord with him, and they will follow him regardless of their lives, undismayed by any danger, night & day, in cold & heat and in times and seasons. The ruler must have standing by him, the commanders who are wise, sincere, benevolent, courageous and strict; and an army that is governed by method and discipline.
Before waging a war, it is important to note that:
In the operations of war, the ruler must account for the smallest expenditure at home and at the front, including small items such as glue and paint, and sums spent on soldiers and their armor. When you engage in actual fighting, and the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain. If victory is long in coming, then weapons will grow dull and soldiers' ardor will be damped and you will exhaust your strength.
When your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue. Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays. There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.
It is only one who is thoroughly acquainted with the evils of war that can thoroughly understand the profitable way of carrying it on.
Contributing to maintain an army at a distance causes the people to be impoverished. On the other hand, the proximity of an army causes prices to go up; and high prices cause the people's substance to be drained away. When their substance is drained away, the peasantry will be afflicted by heavy exactions.
As per Tzu, "there are five essentials for victory: (1) He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight. (2) He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces. (3) He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks. (4) He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared. (5) He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign. (You can read The Art of War here)
 

Growth slip into slow lane

Confirming the worst fears, the Indian economy has taken the slow lane in 3QFY19. As per the data released yesterday evening, the GDP grew at a slower pace of 6.6% (yoy) in the quarter ended December 2018. The growth has climbed down sharply from 8% in 1QFY19 to below 7% in 3Q.
The CSO growth estimates for the full year FY19 have been reduced to 7% from 7.2% earlier, making it the slowest growth in past 5years. This implies an estimated growth of 6.4% (yoy) in the current quarter (4QFY19). (see here)
The estimates for the nominal GDP growth (current prices) have also been substantially scaled down. Nominal GDP for FY19 is now expected to grow at 11.5% (yoy). For 3Q the nominal growth has been recorded at 11% (yoy). The full year latest estimate of nominal growth is now 11.5% (yoy) implying a nominal growth of 10.8% for 4QFY19.
Consumer spending growth, which accounts for near 60% of the economy, slowed to an 8.4% rise annually in the December quarter, compared to 9.9% rise in the previous quarter.
Gross fixed capital formation - which include spending on roads, ports, airports and power plants - rose 10.6% compared with 10.2% annual increase in the previous quarter.
The manufacturing sector grew at 6.7% annually, while services, including construction, grew at 7.6% from a year ago period.
While agriculture is estimated to grow at 2.7%, manufacturing is expected to accelerate to 8.1% in 2018-19. However, trade, hotel and transportation sector is expected to decelerate to 6.8% during the year.
As I have been highlighting, the long term growth trend in India is stable around these levels, and no acceleration should be accepted in near term. The risk may actually be on the downside should the global economy witness a material slowdown in next 3-5qtr as many economists expect.
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