Vijay Kumar Gaba

Friday, February 9, 2018

Household savings - 2

Thought for the day

"The American landscape has no foreground and the American mind no background."

—Edith Wharton (American, 1862-1937)

Word for the day

Gorgonize (v)

Hypnotize, Petrify

Malice towards none

Is it true that Sardar Patel was once ready to negotiate the whole Kashmir for Hyderabad?

At least some accounts of independence and partition say so. (see here)

First random thought this morning

Prime Minister Modi is visibly angry these days. The outburst in the Parliament, though not unprecedented was quite disquieting.

One would like to understand what is bothering him most. Is it the opposition ganging against him and trying to engineer a coup in BJP? Is it sub-par performance of economy despite all his good intentions and best efforts? Is it rising tension at the borders despite all his brilliant diplomatic endeavors? Is it failure of BJP leadership to reign the fringe elements from raising frivolous and regressive issues? Is it fear of loss in forthcoming assembly and general elections? or is it something else?

But whatever it is, he might need to mend his style of working and take more people on board for sure, in the larger interest of the nation.

Household savings - 2

Ever since Indian embarked on the path to liberalization and globalization in early 1990s, it has been a fabled story for global investors. There have been many instances in the interim when this story appeared faltering and investors appear giving up hopes. But the lure of youngest demography and the burgeoning middle class has kept their hopes alive.

If we write the India Story as follows, one can see "household savings and investment" forms the very core of the whole India story.

If this virtuous cycle is defied and the new cycle looks something like the following, trust me, there will be no India Story left to tell about, whatsoever.

Thursday, February 8, 2018

Household savings - 1

Thought for the day

"If only we'd stop trying to be happy we'd have a pretty good time."

—Edith Wharton (American, 1862-1937)

Word for the day

Lenity (n)

The quality or state of being mild or gentle, as toward others.

Malice towards none

Q. Should Caesar's wife be above all suspicion at all the time?

Answers:

Amit: Who is Caesar?

Rahul: Which wife?

Mamta: What's suspicion?

Swara: Why only wife?

Yogi: Take her mobile back

First random thought this morning

Suddenly, the entire country seems to be engrossed in a variety of conspiracy theories. The most popular ones suggest:

(a) Some Congress leaders are planning a coup in NDA and in within BJP also, to weaken Modi and stitch up a formidable alliance that will decimate NaMo.

(b) One senior Congress leader is planning to engineer a collapse in stock market later this year, so as to create an environment of negativity just before next general elections.

Household savings - 1

A careful reading of the Economic Survey 2017-18 and Union Budget FY19, gives an impression that policy makers' understanding of household savings and investment trends and preferences is piecemeal and therefore somewhat confused.

In my view, household savings is one of the most critical element of Indian economy. Ignoring it or undermining it, is certainly fraught with grave risk.

The consistent fall in household savings in past decade or so, is therefore a matter of concern and needs to be addressed.

Moreover, the recent change in the composition of household savings in favor of financial savings also needs closer scrutiny.

(a) After rising for two decades since economic liberalization began in 1991, household savings have been declining since FY10.

(b) The share of household savings in total savings declined from around 68 per cent in 2011-12 to 59 per cent in 2015-16. The savings of household sector as a ratio of GDP have declined from 23.6 per cent in 2011-12 to 19.2 per cent in 2015-16, while that of private corporate sector have increased.

(c) Within the households’ savings, there has been a substitution away from physical to financial assets, with the share of former declining by over 10 percentage points.

(d) The pattern of household’s financial savings was significantly different in 2016-17 vis-à-vis the preceding 5 years. While the overall financial savings of the households registered an increase of over 20 per cent in 2016-17, (significantly higher than the growth witnessed in any of the preceding 5 years), there was a decline in the savings in the form of currency by over 250 per cent (of about Rs. 5 lakh crore). This decline primarily owed to the withdrawal of high denomination currency notes in November 2016 and partial remonetisation by end March 2017.

(e) There was a significant decline in the proportion of deployment of financial savings in bank deposits and life insurance funds and an increase in share of currency, provident and pension funds, claims on government (primarily in small savings) in 2015-16. Savings held in shares and debentures more than doubled, and within this category, mutual funds segment increased by 126 per cent in 2015-16 over the previous year.

...to continue tomorrow

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

What to do?

Thought for the day

"There are two ways of spreading light: to be the candle or the mirror that reflects it."

—Edith Wharton (American, 1862-1937)

Word for the day

Cerebrate (v)

To use the mind; think or think about.

Malice towards none

Tension with neighbors is just another indicator of complete Congressization of BJP.

In Indira days "external threat" used to be the common refrain to garner support.

First random thought this morning

The current winter season has been unusually dry. In most part of the country drought like conditions exist. A recent road trip across UP and MP suggests that most of the smaller rivers have dried up and larger rivers' water level is much lower than normal.

The weather is unusually warm and wheat crop is ripening early. The yield is expected to be low despite higher acreage.

In hills summer flowers are blooming in peal winters, which as per folklores mean that the monsoon may be below par.

All this does not augur too well for Indian agri sector.

What to do?

In past two days a number readers have been asking about my vies about the market. "Should I sell now or wait for a bounce back?" is the common refrain. Only 3 readers have so far asked me whether they should be putting fresh money in the market.

I am in no position to offer any specific advice to anyone. However, for the benefit of all readers, I may share my personal views as follows:

(a) Most indicators are suggesting that the extant bull market ended months ago. We witnessed a strong bear market rally in past few months, just like the one we witnessed in July 2007-Janaury 2008 period when despite sub-prime defaults the benchmark indices gained ~50% and broader markets outperformed.

This time from end September 2017 and till mid January , we have seen broader market indices rising 24-30% despite macro environment worsening, and valuations transgressing into bubble territory.

(b) For the entire bull market that started from end August 2013, the broader market indices are still outperforming Nifty by ~40% (midcap) and ~55% (small cap).

As is the case always, this outperformance may be corrected over the course of next many months. Given that the distance to be covered is still very long, the journey is going to be very painful, exhausting and to a large extent frustrating. I therefore continue to maintain an all large cap portfolio.

(c) In my view, the market correction has just started and has a long distance to cover over next one year or so. We may see intermittent up moves, but the market shall eventually head down.

In strict technical sense, in my view, the following scenario is likely over next one year:

Base case for 2018

Nifty should bottom around 8470 in next 12months, i.e., a 50% correction of the rally from 6825, the low of March 2016.

Probable scenario for 2018

Nifty may correct 38 to 50% of the up move (5285 to 10114) in next 13months. Which means, the downmove may bottom between 8280-7700 Nifty level by January 2019.

Worst case scenario

The worst case scenario could be that Nifty corrects the entire gains made since March 2016 low of 6825.

(d) Since almost everyone is looking to sell at rallies, the rallies form here may be small, and in many cases only intraday.

(e) Rising rates, inflation and tighter liquidity are a totally foreign to a significant majority of investors who entered market in past decade or so.

The humongous losses on bond portfolios, when crypto bubble is bursting and economic growth is peaking at much lower level than widely anticipated, are most likely to entail a knee jerk reaction from inexperienced, over confident and overleveraged investors.

Brexit will add more uncertainty to the global markets this summer, as it would also be an unprecedented situation, with potential to cause a spiral effect across Europe.

(f) Back home, prospects of a below par monsoon, specter of political instability, less than expected earnings growth, and tighter liquidity shall keep equities under pressure.

In view of all this, I am certainly little extra cautious on my equity portfolio.

However, as an investor I certainly do not believe in a binary type situation (i.e., raising 100% cash). I am though holding reasonable amount of tactical cash, that should enable me to pass through these difficult time and give me an opportunity to add few extra bps to my returns.

To sum up, my strategy is very defensive portfolio, reasonable amount of cash, low return expectations, no contra calls and no fishing (bottom or otherwise).

If you feel that I have not answered the question "sell now or wait for bounce" categorically; well I have not and I cannot!

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Apprehensions growing

Thought for the day

"Silence may be as variously shaded as speech."

—Edith Wharton (American, 1862-1937)

Word for the day

Crump (v)

To crunch or make a crunching sound, as with the teeth.

Malice towards none

Now since most of the book profits have been eroded, the finance minister may safely consider rolling back

First random thought this morning

While a large majority of political commentators have criticized the union budget for being unimaginative and short on peoples' expectation, no one so far has suggested what the finance minister could have done better.

The former finance minister Shri P. Chidambaram has been one of the most vocal critics of the budget.

All the budget data has been made public. Would it not be better if PC tells people what he would have done differently, by presenting his version of the budget based on available data.

Apprehensions growing

Post presentation of Union Budget last week, most capital market participants have become apprehensive. As of this morning, the apprehension level is much higher and all encompassing.

Most commentators are attributing the fall to the (a) introduction of section 112A in the Income Tax Act and amendment of section 115R, that proposes to tax the long term capital gains arising in respect of equity shares and units of the equity oriented mutual funds' (MFs) units and impose dividend distribution tax on equity MF units; and (b) relaxation in the FRBM targets for another couple of years.

In my view, it is not correct.

The correction in Indian stocks and bond market so far is mostly a reflection of the global trend, and there is nothing to suggest that equity and bond prices have corrected due to budget provisions.

For records, the budget estimates of net market borrowing for FY19 at Rs4,07,120cr is 15% lower than the revised estimates for FY18 (Rs. 4,79,864cr) and external debt is budgeted to be net payment of Rs2,589cr in FY19. Thus the only fear for bonds is sharp rise in crude prices. That at best is a conjecture at this point in time.

The anecdotal evidence suggest that so far there is no significant spurt in redemption or SIP cancellations requests with mutual funds.

In my view the correction in prices of stocks and bonds so far is due to (a) tighter liquidity (actual and anticipated); and (b) rising inflationary expectations.

Attributing the fall in prices of stocks and bonds to section 112A and higher fiscal deficit target could therefore be seriously misleading. In my view, these two factor do not at all warrant any significant correction in the prices.

So, I would like to ignore these two and remain focus on my primary premise for price correction, viz., macro worsening, tightening liquidity, rising cost of capital, rising inflationary expectations, and above all stretched valuations.

I am adding another factor to my list of negative factors for financial markets, i.e., rising inconsistency, incongruity and unpredictability of the policy direction.

The Prime Minister, first added the element of unpredictability through the step to replace 86% of currency in circulation, apparently without any conceptual framework. Then many of the government schemes are found to be inconsistent with the stated objective of "enablement vs. provision". Introduction of section 112A and amendment to section 115R are prima facie incongruous with the stated principle of predictability in taxation policy, especially when the government is actively encouraging lower middle people to invest in stock and bond markets.

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Red Flags

Thought for the day

"When people ask for time, it's always for time to say no. Yes has one more letter in it, but it doesn't take half as long to say."

—Edith Wharton (American, 1862-1937)

Word for the day

Fenestrated (adj)

Having windows; windowed; characterized by windows

Malice towards none

Has RaGa learned from his past mistakes and become modest, or he is just faking it?

First random thought this morning

Cricket is one thing in which India has consistently improved its performance over last decade or so. IPL has certainly played an important role in this. While many have criticized it to be a symbol of the European burgeon culture; the fact is that it has allowed lot of lower middle and poor class people to aspire high and fulfill those aspirations. The constitution of various current Indian cricket teams would stand witness to the egalitarian effect of this phenomenon.

Another thing that need to be noticed is that how veteran Bollywood actor Amir Khan has cracked the Chinese code. His recent films PK, Dangal and Secret Superstar have done exceptionally well in China, beating many leading Hollywood releases.

The government may want to take some lessons from these two success stories.

For investors, it is important to take a note of the red flags that are too conspicuous and could have serious repercussions on the sustainability of the economic recovery and hence corporate earnings.

The Economic Survey for 2017-18 presented by the government earlier this week holds many of these red flags but stops short of raising them.

It would be pertinent to notice these red flags and review investment strategy in that light.

Red Flags

It is widely accepted that Indian economy is recovering, albeit slowly, from the disruptions created by demonetization (November 2016) and implementation of GST (July 2017). The GDP growth is forecast to recover from below 6% in FY17 to more than 7% in FY19. At this rate, India will be the fastest growing economy amongst all major global economies.

The positives are all well known and appreciated by markets and global agencies, as the entire government machinery is busy marketing these.

Nonetheless, for investors, it is important to take a note of the red flags that are too conspicuous and could have serious repercussions on the sustainability of the economic recovery and hence corporate earnings.

The Economic Survey for 2017-18 presented by the government earlier this week holds many of these red flags but stops short of raising them.

It would be pertinent to notice these red flags and review investment strategy in that light.

Some areas of concern could be highlighted as follows:

(1) There is a sizable risk that the Indian economy's effort to converge with developed economy may stall, as the de-globalization take center stage.

(2) The fall in domestic savings, when seen in light of changes in consumption pattern, changes in credit profile, investment holdings, employment opportunities etc., is worrisome. This is a structural change in Indian business ethos, that advices against excessive borrowing.

(3) High real rates.

(4) Agriculture challenges.

(5) Rising ratio of personal loans and loans to smaller textile and other micro enterprises in overall formal credit.

(6) Lower potential growth.

(7) Scope for macro deterioration.

(8) Rising emphasis on markets, ignoring sustainability and social concerns.

(9) Demographic challenges.

(10) Political challenges.

From next week, I shall discuss all these red flags individually in subsequent daily posts.

In the meantime, as you take a comfortable seat in front of your TV set and get ready to hear Shri Arun Jaitley, the Union Finance Minister, I pray all your wishes from the Union Budget for FY19 are fulfilled. Amen!

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Prelude to Union Budget - 1

Thought for the day

"The only way not to think about money is to have a great deal of it."

—Edith Wharton (American, 1862-1937)

Word for the day

Ad absurdum (adv)

To the point of absurdity

Malice towards none

Silence was never so glittery as it is today.

#Manishankar Iyer # PChidambram #GVLNarsimharao

First random thought this morning

China is still far from being recognized as a developed economy. Nonetheless it has started behaving like one. Ignoring short term concerns, it is acting ruthlessly to check pollution and spiraling debt. It is keeping its currency stable, and continues to open its markets. It is assertive on geo political issues and shown great ambitions in terms of CPEC and OBOR.

We certainly have many lessons to learn from Chinese, keeping all our prejudices aside.

Prelude to Union Budget - 1

I spent the weekend reading reports published by various market participants highlighting what they expect from the Union Budget for FY19 to be presented day after tomorrow.

In all I read 23 reports. I found all the report unusually similar in their content, expectations and forecast. The jargon used was insipidly the same. "Rural Income", "2019 General Election", "Housing for All", "Power for All", "Roads" and "Fiscal Tightrope" were the most common terms used in all these reports.

There is stark divergence in views relating to the likelihood of changes in tax provisions relating to Long Term Capital Gains and Inheritance (Estate Duty), the two issues that are being most discussed and feared about by the market participants and financial media. The dominant view is that the finance minister will maintain status quo on these issues to keep the markets in good stead. The minority view is that while the exemption for LTCG may stay, the minimum holding period may be increased to bring parity between equities and other assets. However, none believes that LTCG exemption will be withdrawn completely.

All the report relied heavily on the government statements, promises and various documents and lacked in any originality.

This confirms my view that Union Budget is no longer a critical event in the economic calendar of the country, as none of the analysts/economists seem to have put any material effort in preparing these reports.

In short, the consensus view on budget could be summarized as follows:

(a) The government may maintain fiscal deficit target at 3.2%, and project higher tax revenue growth (both GST and Income/Corporate Tax) and even larger disinvestment target.

(b) The focus of the budget will be rural voters. Expect higher allocation for rural housing, rural electricity, raising farm income (productivity - micro irrigation, farms inputs; pricing, and profitability).

(d) Export sector may be given additional incentives to improve worsening trade account situation and create additional employment.

(e) The elections to many large states scheduled to be held later this year, and the next general elections due in May 2019 shall have significant bearing on the budget.

(f) No major change in tax rate is likely. Most changes in tax laws would be administrative in nature aimed at improving compliance and ease of doing business.

Tomorrow I shall share my perspective for the FY19 Union Budget, for whatever worth it is.