Thought for the day
"A liar will not be believed, even when he speaks the truth."
-
Aesop
(Greek, 620-560BC))
Word for the day
Whodunit (n)
A narrative dealing with
a murder or a series of murders and the detection of the criminal; detective story.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
New Wonder of the world!
The dispensation responsible for one third of the
administration of Delhi needs US$90mn to tell people what has been done to make
their life better in past five months!
Would people not know by themselves if their life becomes
any better?
Consumerism, markets, aspirations and adhocism
A vacation in serene hills of Garhwal Himalaya turned out to be
revelation of sorts. Though I always had this slight inclination but picture was
never so clear.
I often doubted the projections of India's growth potential by
economists and government authorities. The potential that has been seldom
accomplished in past seven decades needs to be judged with a great deal of
suspicion.
To make the matter even more complex, the evaluators comprising of
economists, retired bureaucrats, market analysts and investment strategists
etc., have often held the government responsible for the this consistent
"below par" performance of the economy.
During the 900km
drive and four days in a camp in secluded forest area I got convinced that the
"economic growth potential" as projected using mechanical economic
models is mostly illusionary. The growth and development projected through
these models cannot be accomplished without pre-existence of certain civic and
social conditions.
I am confident that it is the people of India who are constricting
the economic growth and development. The government and administration are only
some of the people who usually after making some small effort decide to join
the people in their civil non-compliance. Being in a position of trust, they
usually are successful in taking pecuniary advantage of the disparateness and
pervasive non-compliance in the society.
Consider the following examples to understand the point I am
trying to make.
(A) Driving on NH-58 (Delhi-Badrinath) at
night, I observed that (i) most state transport busses plying on the road did
not have a working tail light or break light; (ii) cyclists were carelessly
cycling on the main road without any protective headgear, reflector or light;
(iii) trucks were commonly carrying iron rods hanging well outside their
vehicles and no caution sign/light or reflector; (iv) pedestrian were crossing
the highway carelessly; and (v) bikes and tractors were freely driving against
the traffic to avoid a long U turn.
Discussing the phenomenon with many drivers on the food outlets
all along the highway, I found that the immediate outcome of all this is that
this slows down the traffic and keeps the drivers in constant fear of accident
often resulting in high stress, drunk driving and violent outbursts.
However, the more serious consequences are that (a) after a while everybody
stops following the traffic rules and general non-compliance & tendency to
cut corners permeates deep into the behavior; (b) the value of human life
diminishes and social violence gains acceptance; (c) the disregard for
"right of way", translates into the disregard for "right to
life".
(B) The staff of civic
authorities is perhaps never trained to value human life and time. They bother
least about the inconvenience caused to fellow citizens by the carelessness and
apathy.
After
a repair job, they often leave the debris on road or do not patch the hole dug
on the road for carrying repairs, causing traffic snarls, endangering life of
travelers at night. They take weeks to do a job that could be done in hours.
The consequences is frustration, stress, and anguish. The outcome
is violence, deep disregard for civic courtesies and compliance norms and
tendency to cut corners at the expense of fellow citizens.
(D) A hike to the
famous Surkanda Devi temple, near Mussoorie was frustrating. The entire path
was littered with plastic wrappers and bottles. Considering that this temple is
mostly visited by the local people, it was really saddening.
The people of the region are known for their struggle to save
environment. Famous Sunderlal Bahuguna carried out his movement to save trees
and Ganga (from Tehri dam) here. Now these very people threatening the
environment and embracing mindless consumerism would certainly constrict the
growth and development.
(C) The ‘jugaad’
mindset has tenaciously constricted the vision of an average Indian
entrepreneur. Except for a handful of Indians, most of whom have the benefit of
studying and/or working overseas, not many have thought about scalable business
models.
‘Jugaad’ in economic field is proving to be as dangerous as in
personal (like self medication) and political (caste and religion based
politics, adhocism in key socio-economic policies etc.)
The ‘jugaad’ mindset reflects poorly on almost every aspect of the
socio-economic life in India. This has severely impacted the pursuit of
excellence, a hall mark of Indian art, culture, engineering, architecture,
industry till 19th century, at least. Today, “Quality” is something
India and Indians are not particularly known for globally.
As said on many occasions earlier, for my investment strategy, I
presume a slower ~5-6% (old series) average growth for next decade with rise in
mindless consumerism, policy adhocism, dominance of markets and unleashed
aspirations.
I would not bother too much about struggle for survival of the
bottom half of the pyramid, insofar as the construction of my portfolio is
concerned. And I do not expect any major civil unrest, presuming that all
Indians will continue to work for furtherance of their personal agenda only. About
National Interest - that bird perhaps got extinct on 15 August 1947.
On Greece, I find it sufficient to quote a dear friend:
"Personally I think Germany will buckle under pressure from
IMF and US. Between worries of a contagion and the impracticality of kicking
Greece out of Eurozone and US worries of a left wing socialist fire in Europe
fed by Russia they will arm twist Merkel and Troika to take a big haircut.
But that emboldens the anti austerity wing in Europe even more.
All the left wing anti austerity chaps in Europe will have their tails up,
especially in countries with high youth unemployment, viz., Italy, Spain,
Portugal and France.
We have just seen Season 1 of a six part House of Cards. It's
going to be a long and messy."
Pic source: Twitter #JugaadNation
