The popular commentary these days is suggesting, rather
aggressively, that the largest economy the USA has overcome all its problems –
unemployment, fiscal deficit, public debt, housing market, household leverage
and above all growth and investment cycle. In the same breadth it is also
mentioned that emerging markets that have thrived on the excessive liquidity
created by US Federal Reserve are destined for a painful grind to dust as the Ben
Bernanke starts withdrawing the liquidity.
In our view, nothing could be farther from truth. The USA still
has over 7% of its workforce unemployed. Number of people surviving on food
stamps is highest in recent decades. Growth for the current year is expected to
be mere 2%. Investment cycle is far from robust. Deficit has come down on
spending cuts, but continues to be threateningly high. This is when Fed had
been printing 24X7. A lunch break of 45minutes is expected to worsen things
again. Moreover, with 3/4th of global population in despair, a USA
recovery could only be unfathomable.
As Howard Kunstler of Kunstler.com
puts it:
“The coordinated
effort to devalue gold - so as to maintain the sagging reputation of the
world’s re$erve currency - has had the effect mainly of funneling it out of
weak hands in the west to strong hands in the east, to countries that at one
time or another we regarded as adversaries. China and Russia have been backing
up their respective trucks at the gold warehouse loading dock, and before too
long they will have yuan and rubles with more credibility than the US dollar.
For the moment, holders of
weakening currencies are seeking refuge in seemingly “stronger” dollars in
bubbling equity markets. Many more dollars have been stashed on the balance
sheets of the Federal Reserve in the form of bonds purchased in galumphing
bales since 2009 - only the catch is that many of these bonds are worthless,
especially the mortgage-backed securities. The collateral exists in the form of
mold-infused sheetrock, swimming pools with algae blooms, and strip malls left
with a single tenant: the wig shop. The Fed will never be able to unload this
hoard of garbage, even if it “tapers” its buying of new garbage. The dollars
that the Fed creates out of nothing are trapped in this fetid backwater of
rotting capital, destined to go nowhere - surely not into activity that
produces real wealth, or the means to continue being civilized.”
The conventional economists may argue that the disruptions
created by the excess money are at best temporary and changes in the money
supply do not affect the 'real' economy, e.g., patterns of trade, production
and consumption. The additional
dollars make no additional productive capacity available and they alter no
tastes. Therefore, the economy eventually will settle at the same long term
equilibrium as before.
However, as we see in the current context the disruptions are so
large that these may threaten to alter the character of the real economy and
“long term” may be too “long” to be relevant.
…to be continued
Thought for the day
“The woods are lovely, dark and deep
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.”
- Robert Frost (1874-1963)
Word of the day
Edacity (n):
Voraciousness; appetite.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Shri Nārada Uvāca
Defense ministry asks armed forces to cut fuel usage by 40%.
Would it not be better if the governments asks its ministers, MPs, MLAs etc. to save fuel? More savings could perhaps be achieved if Public Sector employees could be told not to use official vehicle for private use.
