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2015: 10 things to watch

Thought for the day "While all other sciences have advanced, that of government is at a standstill - little better understood, little better practiced now than three or four thousand years ago." -           John Adams (American, 1735-1826) Word for the day Q uerulous (Adj) Apt to find fault; habitually complaining. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Why listenership of "Man Ki Baat" is dwindling with each episode? Is PM not talking what we want to hear? 2015: 10 things to watch In my view, regardless of the jitteriness of the markets during last week, it is worthwhile to discuss a strategy for next year or may be two. The exercise may look little less interesting at this point in time; still it is worth undertaking in order to suitably calibrate (a) asset allocation (b) return expectations and (c) sectoral preferences. In my view, the following 10 key fa...

The longest hour

Thought for the day "Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other. " -           John Adams (American, 1735-1826) Word for the day Efface (V, trn) To cause to disappear by rubbing out, striking out, etc.; to erase; to render illegible or indiscernible. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day I dare all champions of Hindu cause to visit Vrindavan during rains! The longest hour This morning the financial market place seem more like a war front to me; where the next one hour seems much more critical than the next day and no one seems interested in talking or listening about next one month or next one year. Survival is the key here not the longevity. Writing a strategy about next one year under the circumstance seems like a hazardous task to me. Nonetheless, moving with the heard, I would like to...

May Sensex tread its own random path

Thought for the day "Public opinion is the thermometer a monarch should constantly consult." -           Napoleon Bonaparte (French, 1769-1821) Word for the day Happenstance (n) A chance happening or event. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day J&K beats Mumbai in cricket! Will it also do so in democracy, by giving a clear mandate? May Sensex tread its own random path The recent CII "in-camera" meeting has evoked considerable interest in media and market circles. The selective leaks and euphemistic explanations somehow reminded me of the Hans Christian Andersen's story "The Emperor's New Clothes". From what appeared in media, it looks that the Indian industrialists are already skeptical of the capabilities of the new government. Many in industry are apparently beginning to believe that the Modi led government is not doing enough or doing things the wron...

Show me the Dollars

Thought for the day " When small men attempt great enterprises, they always end by reducing them to the level of their mediocrity." -           Napoleon Bonaparte (French, 1769-1821) Word for the day P hilosophaster (n) A person who has only a superficial knowledge of philosophy or who feigns a knowledge he or she does not possess. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day ET headline yesterday talked about an in-camera meeting of CII, where a critical evaluation of government's performance was made. Are they scared of Modi? If yes, why? Show me the Dollars In the summer of 2007, I had just moved to the financial capital Mumbai from the political capital Delhi. The mood was as buoyant as it could be. Everyday plane loads of foreign investors and NRIs would alight at Mumbai airport with bagful of Dollars. They would spend two hours in sweltering heat to reach t...

Cart leading the horse

Thought for the day "I am sometimes a fox and sometimes a lion. The whole secret of government lies in knowing when to be the one or the other. " -           Napoleon Bonaparte (French, 1769-1821) Word for the day Nonage (n) A period of youth or immaturity. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Lehman Bros. was crucified in the financial collapse of 2008! Who will it be in the commodities' collapse of 2015? Cart leading the horse The elementary principle of economics is that the price of a thing that has any economic value is determined by the forces of demand and supply. Often in the short term a state of inequilibrium does exist leading to volatility in prices. However, the equilibrium is usually restored by operation of a variety of factors. There is no denial that economics is youngest amongst the scientific discipline and pure scientist hesitate in admi...

Kal ho na ho!

Thought for the day "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. " -           Napoleon Bonaparte (French, 1769-1821) Word for the day Cant (n) To talk hypocritically. To speak in the whining or singsong tone of a beggar; beg. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Declare "Bhagvat Gita" as a National Book! What does it mean- (a) Honor Gita and Lord Krishna; and/or (b) Give recognition to Gita; and/or (c) Honor India and Indians? I feel it is a blasphemous idea! Kal ho na ho! The Chandershekhar government in 1991 originated the idea of disinvestment in public sector enterprises (PSE) with the stated objective to “broad based the equity, improve management and enhance the availability of resources for these enterprises”. In April 1993 the Rangrajan Committee that was set up to make recommendation on the issue of disinvestment, made some rad...

Selling sweets at village fair

Thought for the day "The best way to keep one's word is not to give it." -           Napoleon Bonaparte (French, 1769-1821) Word for the day Genuflect (v) To be servilely respectful or obedient; to grovel. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Given the behavior of our parliamentarians, do we seriously need to reconsider the Constitution of India? Selling sweets at village fair The beginning of the disinvestment process by the new government could at best be described as farce. It reminds me of an old bedtime story, my grandfather used to narrate. In a village, there lived a widow with her two sons. Both the sons were lazy and hated studying or working. Once when the annual fair of village was going on, the mother prepared some sweets and told her sons to go and sell those sweets in the fair and earn some money. She also gave one rupee each to both the boys for bu...

The game of cat of mouse continues

Thought for the day "Wisdom is oftentimes nearer when we stoop than when we soar." -           William Wordsworth (English, 1770-1850) Word for the day Contrite (Adj) Deeply affected with grief and regret for having done wrong; penitent; (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Which party needs to worry most about coming together of splinters of erstwhile Janta Dal - BJP or Congress? The game of cat of mouse continues After reading the 3rd report of the Tax Administration Reform Commission, I am reminded of the tale of Cat and Rats, that I have shared with readers once earlier also. “Once the king rodent called a general assembly of all rats to ponder over the rising feline threat. Everybody was too concerned and bothered about the menace. After a long deliberation, it was unanimously agreed to appoint a strategic consultant to advise on the matter. The consultant s...

Despite the brave talk...

Thought for the day " Pictures deface walls more often than they decorate them. -           William Wordsworth (English, 1770-1850) Word for the day Renascent (Adj) Springing or rising again into being; showing renewed vigor. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day If Naveen Tyagi and Niranjan Jyoti are "Hindu", then I am not! Are you? Despite the brave talk... I had an opportunity to meet a group of learned financial market participants last evening. With benchmark indices close to all time high levels; 10yr yields sliding below 8% after long; gold and silver prices in down trend and copper prices slithering towards cycle lows - the sense of discomfort in the room was palpable. From the discussion, I could gather the five major trends that are bothering the discerning minds at this point in time. (1)    The global environment that seemed stable and impro...

Subsidy reforms: Need a micro approach

Thought for the day "In modern business it is not the crook who is to be feared most, it is the honest man who doesn't know what he is doing. " -           William Wordsworth (English, 1770-1850) Word for the day Nosophobia (n) An abnormal fear of disease. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Heard on street: the top leadership of Congress is in drought mode post Lok Sabha election. Preservation and thrift is the order of the day at Akbar Road and Janpath! Subsidy reforms: Need a micro approach One of the major problem with the centralized planning process has been the misguided and misdirected social welfare planning and subsidization programs. It is critical to evaluate this aspect, along with more popular foreign investment and PSU disinvestment policies, to make a realistic assessment of need for reforms in social spending of the government as in past decade ...