Do it yourself

In January 2021, the 22 nd biannual Financial Stability Report (FSR) of RBI had raised many red flags over the Indian financial markets. The report, inter alia , highlighted the uneven economic recovery, accentuated credit risk of firms and households, and divergence between economic activity and asset prices. Commenting on the findings of FSR, the RBI governor had then cautioned investors and financial institutions that “The disconnect between certain segments of financial markets and the real economy has been accentuating in recent times, both globally and in India” and “ Stretched valuations of financial assets pose risks to financial stability. Banks and financial intermediaries need to be cognisant of these risks and spillovers in an interconnected financial system. ” Incidentally, the benchmark Nifty has gained ~24% and total market capitalization of NSE has increased ~38% since release of last FSR in January 2021. The economics team of RBI, in the latest monthly bulletin of R...

  The “Young India” may soon begin to age. As the era of demographic dividend wanes, many new business and investment opportunities may arise. It may be the right time for investors to anticipate these opportunities and begin taking positions. Presently, India is home to the largest number of youth. With close to half of her 1.4bn people below 24yrs of age, India is like a vast reservoir of youthful energy. However, this distinction might not last for long. India is expected to become a middle aged country in next 15years and an old country by 2050 - since with the faster economic development over past three decades, India has managed a consistent decline in crude birth rate (CBR), total fertility rate (TFR) & infant mortality rate (IMR); and improved healthcare facilities, better access & improved affordability have also resulted in a consistent rise in life expectancy of an average Indian to about 70yrs. As per a 2019 report of the Technical Group on Population Projec...

One of the economic positives of Covid-19 pandemic is material rise in digital payments and e-commerce. The steep rise in adoption of digital payments by household consumers and merchants in past one year should have arguably led to lower currency in circulation. However, the recent data released by RBI indicates that the cash in circulation is highest in 6 decades relative to GDP. In absolute terms also, the cash is materially higher than the pre demonetization levels. It may be argued that holding more cash during the times of distress (e.g., Pandemic) is natural instinct; and this trend has been seen globally. Nonetheless, in the Indian context, the issue needs deeper examination by the policy makers. Digital payments rising exponentially The initial public offer (IPO) by One 97 Communication Limited, the owner of India’s largest payment brand PayTM, celebrates the exponential growth in digital payment in past few years. As per NASSCOM, digital payments in India have grown ~10x ...

Recently, the President of US, Joe Biden, laid out a framework for nearly US$1.75trn in social sector funding. The plan, inter alia, proposes a spending of $400 billion to help provide subsidized childcare for more than 6 million children and tuition-free preschool for 3- and 4-year-olds, along with $555 billion for clean energy initiatives, including $320 billion in tax credits, to help Americans pay for environment friendly home improvements and corporation’s transition to clean-energy manufacturing, over the next 10 years. The President has proposed to fund this spending through a 15% corporate minimum tax on large corporations, tax on stock buybacks and a surcharge on the top 0.02% of high earners. However, the proposal to tax the superrich (700 odd billionaires) on their unrealized gains on assets could not be pushed for lack of necessary support. Nonetheless, the proposal has reignited an intense debate, as the opinions are vertically divided on the legality and morality of ...

Household now largest borrowers As per the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India, the share of personal loans in total outstanding bank credit in India has grown to 27%. For the first time, the share of personal credit in the total bank credit is higher than the credit to the industry.  In past 12 months, the share of personal credit has increased by 2%, from 25% in September 2020 to 27% in September 2021; whereas the share of industrial credit has declined by 1% from 27% to 26% over the same period. The share of credit to agriculture sector has remained mostly stagnant at around 12%. The trend could be explained, inter alia , through the following three key factors: (a)    Rising institutionalization of the personal credit due to accelerating financial inclusion and digitalization of financial transactions. (b)    Decline in share of NBFCs in the personal credit, due to a variety of reasons. (c)     Deleveraging of balance she...

 The new year of the Goddess of Wealth (Mahalakshami) has started on a rather somber note for the Indian equities. After a very strong year since Diwali of 2020, the markets appear tired and uncertain. The tailwinds of easy money and lower borrowing cost, which were among the factors that supported strong market performance since Diwali of 2020, appear weakening; whereas the headwinds of inflation, tighter money, and slowing growth appear gaining strength. The valuation comfort that aided investors’ sentiments last year, is no longer available. The opportunity provided by the panic reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic has been mostly exploited by investors. Most of the low hanging fruits have already been plucked. The risk reward ratio is no longer favorable at the broader levels at least. The Covid-19 pandemic itself, and the response to the pandemic created numerous opportunities in past one and a half year. The market readily identified these opportunities, and investors posi...

Stagflation is an economic environment with rapidly rising prices, a weak labor market, and low GDP growth. The recent corporate commentary throws light on some important economic trends. These trends, which might have been developing for few years, are becoming more established on ground now. The most discussed trend since demonetization (November 2016) and GST (July 2017) has been the transfer of market share from smaller unorganized businesses to the large organized businesses. Import substitution (Make in India) has been another trend that has gained significant currency in past 4-5 years. This has manifested most prominently in the capacity building in chemical and renewable energy space. These trends have obviously helped the larger publically traded companies to grow bigger and more profitable. The buoyancy in stock market, a representation of these larger companies, is aptly reflecting these trends. One trend that has escaped the popular narrative and closer scrutiny is s...