Some food for thought
"I'm not concerned with your liking or disliking me... All
I ask is that you respect me as a human being."
—Jackie Robinson (American Athlete, 1919-1972)
Word for the day
Gibble-gabble (n)
Senseless chatter.
First thought this morning
Last weekend I had an opportunity to attend an engagement "event"
function in New Delhi. The event at a popular five star hotel was managed by a
high end event management company.
For a foggy and chilly Delhi evening, settings of the event were
perfect. In a well heated banquet hall, there was plenty of alcohol and winner
of a TV realty singing show live singing romantic songs from 1960s Bollywood
movies.
The parents of the couple to be engaged were around 50yrs of
age, and so were most "elder" attendees. Over half the attendees were
young people in their 20s or early 30s. They all appeared well educated (MBAs
and/or Engineers). In that sense the event reflected metropolitan demographic
characteristics of the country.
Despite belonging to traditionally conservative community, a
majority of women attendees were dressed in modern robes; mostly glittering
evening gowns of European style. In that sense traces of Anushka, Pryianka and
Isha were too conspicuous.
Bride to be, in mid 20s was very beautiful and charming girl. An
MBA from a prominent institute in Delhi, she has been working with top global
consulting firms for past 3yrs.
Groom to be was a decent looking guy, with a graduation degree
from Delhi University and some diploma course in management. He works with his
father on family business of import and all India distribution of some
household items.
All in the party was going fine, till 9PM, when suddenly a
famous mainstream Bollywood singer joined the singers on stage and increased
the temperature many notches with his peppy film numbers. Music suddenly became
unbearably loud. Voice boosting instruments, adequate for a rock show in large
stadium, were placed in a small closed hall meant for 250 people. You can just
imagine the consequences. Everyone talked but no could hear.
This was the time something terrible began to happen. The
fathers of the prospective couple started to meet the attendees. Girl's father
was carrying two large bags, one containing envelopes (around 150) containing
currency notes and the other containing jewelry boxes (around 75) containing
gold coins. The boy's father would take him to his relative one by one, and he
would mechanically pull out an envelope and hand it over each such relative. In
some cases (about 75), he would handover an envelope and a jewelry box. All
this happened very mechanically. The girl's father maintained a poker face
throughout the whole exercise. The boy's father did not consider it even
appropriate to introduce the recipients of envelope and/or box to the girl's
father. All those young MBAs and Engineers mechanically accepted the envelope
without any hesitation and did not even bother thanking the giver.
My young daughters, who had never witnessed anything like this
earlier, asked me "what is this happening?" Feeling loss of words, I
could just say, this is the fine you pay in India for giving birth to a girl
child. Both of them immediately vowed that they would never marry! With pungent
sour taste in out mouth, we could not wait for the food to be served and came
home.
Though it was not something new to me, but the brutality with
which it was executed by the young, well educated metropolitan families
certainly shook my confidence in future of India. I have also decided, for the
first time in my life, to meet some of the people who have killed their
daughters in the womb and listen to their side of story.
Missing the Big Picture
The "interim budget" for FY20, presented by the
acting finance minister last Friday, has already been analyzed threadbare by
financial analysts, economists, tax consultants, management consultants, investment
advisors, political parties, and studio experts. While the comments of
political leaders are mostly on the expected party lines, most others have seen
the budget as stimulus for (a) falling private consumption and (b) struggling
housing sector.
Despite, emphatic defense by the acting finance minister, very
few have bought the authenticity of the budget statistics, insofar as (i)
fiscal and revenue deficit; (ii) public expenditure; (iii) disinvestment
receipts and (iv) payment of subsidies and refunds is concerned.
The fact that the government announced steep upward revision in
the denominator (GDP) for FY17 and FY18 just a day before the budget and
decided not to present the annual Economic Survey that contains detailed
statistics on national accounts and other sector, naturally raises some
suspicion.
Remember that the market watches the key statistics like budget
deficit only as in relative terms as percentage of GDP. Raising the GDP
estimates sharply by 110bps (FY17) and 50bps (FY18) adds more than Rs2trn to
the denominator. The numerators like Fiscal Deficit, obviously look moderate
after this exercise.
But that is not the point, as this is not unprecedented. The
past governments have used this often to their advantage.
The point is that the market analysts have mostly focused on the
tax concessions to marginal tax payers and incentives to rich for buying
"additional" residential properties; whereas economists and bankers
have either commended the fiscal discipline or doubted the sustainability of
it.
Most budget commentaries have been tentative about the
sustainability and impact of the proposal to unconditionally give Rs6000/yr in
cash to small and marginal farmers. The equity analysts have viewed Rs500/month
dole as a major boost to private consumption and have recommended buying agri
input, agri equipment, auto, hair oil, chocolate and toothpaste stocks; whereas
economists and bankers have seen this as fiscal challenge that should prevent
monetary easing in near term.
Almost all analysts and commentators have chosen to totally
ignore the Vision 2030 presented as part of the budget speech; perhaps since no
budgetary allocations have been specifically made towards the 10 point agenda.
To conclude my budget review, I would like to say two things:
(a) The baby steps
taken towards the Universal Basic Income and wider social security through this
budget are transformative. Given the context of elections, these might be hasty
and politically motivated. Nonetheless, these two proposals shall eventually
prove to be watershed in the fiscal policy and social welfare paradigm of the
country. I believe that in next one decade almost all social security and
welfare schemes like MNREGA, Old Age Pension Scheme, & various Subsidized
insurance Schemes etc. shall be subsumed in these proposals as these would
evolve into a truly Universal Basic Income Scheme.
(b) The 10 point
agenda is indeed visionary and must find place in manifestos of most political parties.
If the future governments, regardless of their constitution and form, could
execute this agenda in next 10yrs, we can actually expect to find ourselves
amongst the best in world.
10 point development program for next decade
1. To build physical
as well as social infrastructure for a $10trn economy and to provide ease of
living through next generation infrastructure of roads, railways, ports, urban
transport, gas & electric transmission, inland waterways, quality
educational system.
2. To create a
Digital India reaching every sector of the economy, every corner of the country
and impacting the life of all Indians.
3. To make India a
pollution free nation with green Mother Earth and blue skies. India to drive on
Electric Vehicles, and Renewable becoming a major source of energy supply.
4. To expand rural
industrialization using modern digital technologies to generate massive
employment. This will be built upon the Make in India approach to develop
grass-roots level clusters, structures and mechanisms encompassing the MSMEs,
village industries and start-ups spread in every nook and corner of the
country.
5. To clean rivers,
with safe drinking water to all Indians, sustaining and nourishing life and
efficient use of water in irrigation using micro-irrigation techniques.
6. Besides,
Sagarmala, to develop other inland waterways faster.
7. To become the
launch-pad of satellites for the World and placing an Indian astronaut into
space by 2022.
8. To make India
self-sufficient in food, exporting to the world to meet their food needs and
producing food in the most organic way.
9. To make India
healthy, by providing a distress free health care and a functional and
comprehensive wellness system for all.
10. To make India
Minimum Government Maximum Governance nation.
In case you are still enthusiastic about the boost to private
consumption due to massive tax concessions to middle class of India, you may
consider incorporating the following two tables in your notes:
