Wishing all readers a blissful Durga Ashtami and an
illuminating Dusshera!
असतो मा सदगमय॥ तमसो मा ज्योतिर्गमय॥ मृत्योर्मामृतम् गमय॥
(Let's move from falsehood to truth; from darkness to
light and from decay to salvation)
Some food for thought
A wind has blown the rain
away
and blown the sky away
and all the leaves away,
and the trees stand.
and all the leaves away,
and the trees stand.
I think,
I too, have known autumn too long.
I too, have known autumn too long.
—E. E. Cummings (American
Poet, 1894-1962)
Word for the day
Patzer (n)
A casual, amateurish chess player
First random thought this morning
An overwhelming large proportion of politicians and their
supporters in India appear mostly unemployed or at best employed in disguise. Many
of them have voluntarily taken up the job of "Certifying Authority".
They are issuing certificates about anything and everything. For
example—
Certificate of nationalism credentials: BJP
leaders and supporters certifies all those as "nationalist" who
support RSS, BJP, VHP et. al. Whereas Congress leaders and supporters is
however more selective. they feel that since INC was the only agency that
negotiated modalities of independence with the British Empire, only descendents
of pre independence INC leaders could be
certified as Nationalists.
Certificate of Religion: People on BJP side make a
distinction between Hindu and Non-Hindu, Ramzade and otherwise; etc. A Congress
leader has gone a step further and made distinction between "Good
Hindus" and "Other Hindus"
Certificate of Indianness: BJP and its Supporters feel that only
those who publicly chant Bharat Mata ki Jai and sing Vande Matram can be
certified as Indians. Congress would however be happy to certify anyone who is
likely to vote for Rahul Gandhi as PM.
Chart of the day
Notes from my Diary
The members of International Monetary and Financial Committee
(IMFC), comprising of finance ministers and central bankers of the members of
IMF and World Bank, almost made it clear the expansion of global economy seen
in past five years is facing strong headwinds. There may be some pockets of
growth, but an overall pickup in global growth is not seen in next few years.
The final communiqué issued last weekend, post the Bali meet of
IMFC, categorically stated that the risks to the global growth are now
"increasingly skewed to the downside amid heightened trade tensions and
ongoing geopolitical concerns, with tighter financial conditions particularly
affecting many emerging market and developing countries. Policy uncertainty,
historically high debt levels, rising financial vulnerabilities, and limited
policy space could further undermine confidence and growth prospects."
The following five commitments made in the final communiqué are
noteworthy, in my view:
"Central banks, in line with their mandates and mindful of
financial stability risks, should maintain monetary accommodation where
inflation is below target, and withdraw it in a gradual, well-communicated, and
data dependent manner where inflation is close to or above target."
"We recognize that excessive volatility or disorderly
movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and
financial stability. We will refrain from competitive devaluations and will not
target our exchange rates for competitive purposes."
"We will strive to address challenges from demographic
shifts and enhance inclusion to widely share the gains from technological
advancement and economic integration. We will work together to reduce excessive
global imbalances in a way that supports sustainable global growth."
To me these three pledges of IMFC members clearly highlight that
the concerns over US-China trade war are rising may overwhelm the policy stance
across the world in short term.
Back home, RBI released its latest Consumer Confidence Survey
results last week.
The Survey highlights that the genesis of the dichotomy in
Indian markets. The Indian consumers are significantly less confident about the
current conditions, but still remain overly optimistic in their future
expectations.
The September quarter results of FMCG major Hindustan Unilever
truly reflect this condition.
The results could be said to termed as "Good" per se. But
if compared with the market expectations, these were below par. The stock price
did also correct some to factor in the disappointment. But since the future
expectations are still running high, the derating of stocks is still far away.
In light of what IMFC fears, and what I expect from 2019, I find
the following economic forecast of Capital Economics, more reasonable to base
my strategy upon.
From today onward, I shall be travelling to MP and Chhattisgarh
for 5days. I will share my assessment of the socio-political situation there
next week.
