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All coal is not diamond

Thought for the day "He never chooses an opinion; he just wears whatever happens to be in style." -           Leo Tolstoy (Russian, 1828-1910) Word for the day Aggrandize (v) To widen in scope; increase in size or intensity; enlarge; extend. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none As things stand today morning, it's between Lalu and Modi in Bihar. Supporting cast includes Nitish and Paswan. Rahul plays a cameo. All coal is not diamond I can understand the political viewpoint in running Air India, BSNL/MTNL, BHEL, Coal India and scores of mid and small sized PSU banks. What I fail to see is the rationale behind an investor buying the stocks of these companies. There is enough empirical evidence to show that the private competition has eroded market share and profitability of public enterprises. HMT, MTNL, Air India, SAIL, BHEL etc are good examples ...

Demographic dividend or EMI

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Thought for the day " If you want to be happy, be. " -           Leo Tolstoy (Russian, 1828-1910) Word for the day Gainsay (v) To deny, dispute, or contradict. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Will the government stop at Maggi? Or should it? Demographic dividend or EMI Millions of reams have been used to write and publish about the demographic characteristics of India. Many stories, themes and strategies have been built around the young demographic profile of 1.25bn Indians. Almost all these stories and strategies recognize the young Indian as a great opportunity - "Demographic dividend" for the Indian economy. Of course few of them have words of caution also. Failure to channelize this vast reservoir of energy into productive streams may not only dissipate the demographic dividend but also prove to be counterproductive in terms of widespread civil ...

In search of opportunities

Thought for the day " It is only by not paying one's bills that one can hope to live in the memory of the commercial classes. " -           Oscar Wilde (Irish, 1854-1900) Word for the day Middling (adj) Mediocre; ordinary; commonplace; pedestrian. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Corruption of mind, ideas and preferences is equally detrimental to the progress of a society as the corruption in money and material matters. First random thought this morning Till Tuesday morning the financial experts were almost unanimous on the likely rate cut by RBI. Governor Rajan did not surprise the markets. However, a couple of days after the policy announcement the street is vertically divided on the future course of action. Forecasts now vary from 75bps cut to no cut. The governor has certainly brought back the element of surprise in the policy making. This un-does whatever Gove...

Believe what you know

Thought for the day "There is a luxury in self-reproach. When we blame ourselves we feel no one else has a right to blame us." -           Oscar Wilde (Irish, 1854-1900) Word for the day Oxter (n) The armpit (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none What is the ratio of people who have lost money in Unitech shares vs. the people who have made money in Unitech shares in past 20yrs? If it is more than 100:1, does regulator need to take any step? First random thought this morning The prospects of third consecutive crop damage this kharif season (after poor monsoon last year and Rabi crop damage by hailstorms and excessive winter rains) does not augur well for the economy in general. The challenge before the government is that the PSU banks' balance sheets are already crippled by massive corporate delinquencies. Exploiting these undercapitalized and stressed lenders ...

Stressed, uninspiring and apathetic

Thought for the day "I sometimes think that God in creating man somewhat overestimated his ability." -           Oscar Wilde (Irish, 1854-1900) Word for the day Jiggery-pokery (n) Trickery, hocus-pocus; fraud; humbug, manipulation. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none No European summer breaks for Congress leaders this year. What about a month of "introspection hiatus"?  Stressed, uninspiring and apathetic Governor Rajan obliged the government and markets by a rather reluctant 25bps repo rate cut. However, in doing so he might have caused some harm to the market confidence rather than helping it out. The latest RBI policy statement and subsequent press briefing by the Governor Rajan had five disturbing features. (a)         Recently on many occasions, the RBI has admitted to the elevated and still rising level...

To cut or not to cut is not the question

Thought for the day " The only thing to do with good advice is to pass it on. It is never of any use to oneself. " -           Oscar Wilde (Irish, 1854-1900) Word for the day Agog (adj) Highly excited by eagerness, curiosity, anticipation, etc. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Reports suggest that the government is considering Exit Exam for MBBS doctors. What problem does this exam seek to solve? Can't Munna Bhai pass this exam also by proxy? Do we have Munna Bhais only in Medical profession?   To cut or not to cut is not the question   The GDP date for 4QFY15 has further queered the pitch for Gov. Rajan. The government authorities are claiming that the data shows that the economic recovery is taking off and rate cut at this point in time will provide the necessary escape velocity. The finance minister himself has publically coaxe...

Investors should think beyond 2015

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Thought for the day "I am so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying." -           Oscar Wilde (Irish, 1854-1900) Word for the day Polymathy (adj) Learning in many fields; encyclopedic knowledge. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Congress party is losing the plot at unbelievably fast pace! Investors should think beyond 2015 The events like summer Char Dham yatra in Uttrakhand hills and Kumbh Mela etc., provide a good opportunity to meet people from across the country and assess the general mood. My team traveled to the holy shrines of Sri Kedarnath and Sri Badrinath in Garhwal Himalayas last week and had the opportunity to interact with over 500 people from 13 states. The key points that emerged from these interactions could be summarized as follows: (a)    The general mood of the people could be described best as despondent. (b...