Do it yourself

Thought for the day "To succeed in life, you need two things: ignorance and confidence." -           Mark Twain (American, 1835-1910) Word for the day Rubricate (adj) To mark or color with red. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day By VHP definition all Pakistani and Bangladeshi Muslims are converted Hindus. Then why Bangladeshi Muslims are illegal in India? 2015: Market outlook...the battle continues On December 16, 2013 when I sat to write my outlook for the year 2014 , the conditions were mostly reverse of what we have on our hand today. In the eternal war between the forces of Fear and Greed, the forces of fear then had exhausted most of their ammunition, e.g., EU disintegration, Grexit, PIGS default, hyper-inflation resulting from the Mints printing money incessantly, Iran reneging, Currency war erupting and endangering emerging economies, hard landing of C...

Thought for the day "Apparently there is nothing that cannot happen today." -           Mark Twain (American, 1835-1910) Word for the day B eatific (adj) Giving joy, blessing or making exceedingly happy (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Could VHP set the clock back insofar as economic deterioration of India since 19th century is concerned? 2015: Earnings picture still hazy, valuations not crazy "In economics things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could." Rudiger Dornbusch The dictum of Rudi Dornbusch has proved itself time and again. It is true for the present state of Indian economy and therefore corporate earnings also. The current consensus estimates for FY16 and FY17 corporate earnings are running at 17-18%. Most of these estimates appear to be discounting a sharper economic reco...

Thought for the day "You can't depend on your eyes when your imagination is out of focus." -           Mark Twain (American, 1835-1910) Word for the day Larrikin (adj) Disorderly; Rowdy. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Should the Representation of the People Act , be amended to add the following ground for automatic disqualification of elected representatives: "If he/she stands or speaks in the house without explicit permission of the presiding officer." 2015: Global narrative is scary In past three months the global narrative has turned really scary. I am sure, Santa this year will have a really tough time, for the number of prayers are going to be much larger, louder and desperate. I find myself thoroughly incapable in expressing the fear in my own words, as I do not feel it with the same intensity, sitting at a distance. I am therefore reproducing so...

Thought for the day "Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence." -           John Adams (American, 1735-1826) Word for the day Chutzpa (n) Unmitigated effrontery or impudence; gall. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day By blocking business in Rajya Sabha, is Congress vindicating BJP's behavior during 2004-2014? 2015: Rural income - no material improvement seen Almost two third of the Indian consumers derive their livelihood directly from the rural economy, including farming, horticulture, animal husbandry, cottage industry, forestry, etc. The rural economy directly supports a large number of industrial enterprise, like crop protection, farm equipment, transportation, food processing, etc.; besides providing material indirect support to industries like ...

Thought for the day "As much as I converse with sages and heroes, they have very little of my love and admiration. I long for rural and domestic scene, for the warbling of birds and the prattling of my children." -           John Adams (American, 1735-1826) Word for the day Bespoke (adj) Made to individual order; custom-made. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Will someone tell HRD Minister that "It is definitely not about your idea of "what is right for Indian kids". 2015: Household savings - lower inflation offers little respite In my view change in domestic savings pattern in past one decade is cause of concern for Indian macroeconomic fundamentals. Traditionally, domestic savings, especially household savings, have been a stable and sustainable source of funding for both private as well public investments. Though liberalization of capital controls has op...

Thought for the day "The happiness of society is the end of government." -           John Adams (American, 1735-1826) Word for the day F ait accompli (n) An accomplished and presumably irreversible deed or fact. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day The wheel turns full cycle. "The Parrot" to make its master sing 2015: Investment cycle not seen reviving in 1H2015 at least Reviving the stalled investment cycle is the key to the myriad of problems Indian economy is facing at this point in time, in my view. Simple, as it may sound; this is the toughest challenge before the government, RBI and the business community. In my view, the investment cycle in India is stalled not just due to normal economic cyclicality. It is congregation of a number of socio-economic and political factors. Mostly ignoring sustainability concerns, poor demand assessment, political improprie...

Thought for the day "While all other sciences have advanced, that of government is at a standstill - little better understood, little better practiced now than three or four thousand years ago." -           John Adams (American, 1735-1826) Word for the day Q uerulous (Adj) Apt to find fault; habitually complaining. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Why listenership of "Man Ki Baat" is dwindling with each episode? Is PM not talking what we want to hear? 2015: 10 things to watch In my view, regardless of the jitteriness of the markets during last week, it is worthwhile to discuss a strategy for next year or may be two. The exercise may look little less interesting at this point in time; still it is worth undertaking in order to suitably calibrate (a) asset allocation (b) return expectations and (c) sectoral preferences. In my view, the following 10 key fa...