Do it yourself

Thought for the day “Nothing cannot exist forever.” —Stephen Hawkins (English, 1942 - ) Word for the day Maslin (n) A mixture of different grains, flours, or meals, especially rye mixed with wheat. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Secular India …Umm…duh! Stays put or take the beta bait? - III In view of the feedback received in past couple of days, I find it pertinent to clarify at the outset that the current discussion is purely from a trading strategy view point. I do not mind repeating for the N th time that there is little material evidence to suggest that a secular bull market may materialize in next 2-3 quarters. It is just that there is a natural instinct (the more appropriate word would be ‘itch’) to get attracted by the prospect of some quick and easy money. Despite having learned the hard way over past three decades that there is nothing called “easy and quick money” in equities, allurement is irresistible. This discu...

Thought for the day “Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside. In up markets, volatility tends to gradually decline.” —Phillip Roth (American, 1933 - ) Word for the day Cuittle (v) To wheedle, cajole, or coax. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Baru has told what 1.26bn Indians and most foreigners always suspected/believed. So what is this all fuss about? Stay put to take the beta bait? - II Yesterday, we highlighted ( see here ) that a large outperformance by midcap over the large cap stocks usually occurs in the final phase of a market rally. This phase could last anywhere between 12-24months and is highlighted by stronger momentum as measured by higher volatility, positive better market breadth, deeper participation and rising volumes. The divergence that has been taking shape since past 3months has the characteristics of a large beta rally in the making -...

Thought for the day “I see that the fashion wears out more apparel than the man.” —William Shakespeare (English, 1564-1616) Word for the day Prelusive (adj) Introductory (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day What are key issues is 2014 election? ·          Narendra Modi’s marital status ·          Manmohan Singh’s reticence ·          Azam Khan’s defiance ·          Arvind Kejriwal’s humiliation ·          Rahul Gandhi’s ineffectiveness ·          All of the above ·          None of the above Jump out of steady boat to take the beta bait or stay put? Overwhelming outperformance of high beta midcap and small cap stocks in past couple of months has made m...

Thought for the day “I am so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying.” —Oscar Wilde (Irish, 1854-1900 ) Word for the day Slake (v) To allay (thirst, desire, wrath, etc.) by satisfying. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Sensex is 23K, Narendra Modi is married, Priyanka is politically active, and AK is Gandhian. Has India changed enough or do we want more? The good part of it I strongly endorse the traditional belief that “whatever happens, happens for our good only”. An analysis of the social, political, and economic events of past five years in light of this belief provides reasons for optimism; raises hope; stimulates positive thinking; and slakes much of the pessimism over current state of the nation. The canvass of the country in past five years has been marked by public revelation of multiple instances of irregularities in allocation of natural resources to private entities (c...

Thought for the day “ The distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion. ” — Albert Einstein (German, 1879-1955 ) Word for the day Ad infinitum (adv) To infinity; endlessly; without limit. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Mamta Banerjee is certainly more Aam, Anarchist, Honest, Transparent, Experienced, & Gritty than Arvind Kejriwal. Does TMC has a better claim over the territory which AAP is aggressively trying to encroach upon?   Two short stories Power of ‘the 49’ A dear friend, one of few smart equity analysts I know, also happens to be an ardent fan of RBI governor Raghuram Rajan. While I do not share much of his adulation for the governor, I was left completely speechless when he argued last week “notwithstanding your deep skepticism over long term efficacy of “Americanized policy ways” of the governor, Rajan will continue to enjoy support of ‘the 49%’ for his cha...

Thought for the day “All modern American literature comes from one book by Mark Twain called Huckleberry Finn.” — Ernest Hemingway (American, 1899-1961) Word for the day Bedash (v) To dash or spatter (something) all over; To demolish or ruin; obliterate. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day When the US started quantitative easing, I said right away it will not end before we have QE-99. Usually, when government introduces a programme, they don't end it, and my sense is though they have implemented some tapering, the moment US stock markets drop 10 per cent-20 per cent, they will actually increase active bond purchases. ( Marc Faber )   Market betting on continuity, not reforms “Tere Vaade par jiye hum toh ye jaan jhooth jana; Ke khusi se mar naa jaaate gar aitbar hota.” (Mirza Ghalib) (Make no mistake that I believe in your promises. If I did the thrill would have killed me.) BJP finally released its much awaited manifesto on Monday...

Thought for the day “ Let us raise a standard to which the wise and honest can repair; the rest is in the hands of God.” -George Washington (American, 1732-1799) Word for the day Ambivert (n) One whose personality type is intermediate between extrovert and introvert. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day If not in politics what these people should be doing? ·          Rahul Gandhi ·          Digvijay Singh ·          Lallu Yadav ·          Sharad Pawar Affordable is profitable I met with couple of private equity managers last evening. The idea was to share the learning from my Discover India Trips and gain some understanding of the investment climate in the country from their experience. What I learned was quite useful, and I deem it fit to share with the r...

Thought for the day “Whoever battles with monsters had better see that it does not turn him into a monster. And if you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.” - Friedrich Nietzsche (German, 1844-1900) Word for the day Punnet (n) A small container or basket for strawberries or other fruit. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Who started the 1962 war? How that is relevant today? Except perhaps making Gandhi family more defensive in their electoral pursuit. Banarsi Ladoo – eat it or keep it My seemingly uber bullish view on Indian equities and simultaneous words extreme caution have evoked strong reaction from many readers. The best reaction reads: “This morning you presented me the most delicious Banarsi Ladoo wrapped in my medical test report showing a blood glucose reading of over 400mg/dl. I do not know should I thank you for the Ladoo or letting me know that I cannot eat it. Thank you anyways....