The latest festival season has started on a rather buoyant note, in Indian cities. As per initial reports luxury cars, smartphones, luxury watches, jewelry, home appliances, apparel, etc. are witnessing good consumer demand in most cities. Several high-end cars reportedly have a waiting period of one month to twelve months. Several stores have reported shortages of expensive smartphones and large-sized televisions.
On the other side, rural markets are reporting a noticeable slowdown in demand. Most companies catering to the rural sector, like farm chemicals, farm equipment, consumer staples, building materials, etc., have commented in their presentations about the slower rural demand.
The Reserve Bank of India, several commercial banks, and other lenders have highlighted rising stress in personal loans, credit card outstandings, and micro-lending. Two wheelers and entry-level cars are also not quite reporting encouraging numbers. There are reports about common households downtrading in staples, personal care, home care, and textile spending.
These trends are, in fact, not recent. Many reports and commentaries have highlighted the acceleration in the “K” shaped trend in economic growth in the past decade or so, especially after the demonetization. Moreover, these trends are not India-specific either. It is well documented that several emerging economies and some large economies like the US, are also witnessing a sharp rise in income and wealth inequalities.
In my view, whatever the statistics might suggest, what we are doing is definitely not progress. Several businesses doing well; their stock prices rising; and more and more middle-class households trying to capture a small piece of the growth of these businesses is inarguably a good omen for the country. But in no way it can camouflage the broader picture, i.e., the risk of India failing to become a middle-class country as the growth becomes even more unsustainable.
Without elaborating further, this morning I want to share three experiences I had over the last week. These experiences highlight that we may be treading on the wrong path of economic progress; the administrative machinery recognizes the problems but is mostly clueless/incompetent in suggesting a course correction; and the people are fast losing their empathy and sensitivities towards fellow citizens and becoming ominously self-focused.
1. I was sitting in a friend’s office, interacting with a few field executives in his company. Fifteen minutes into the discussions, a young field executive (39yrs of age) indicated some breathlessness and asked for a glass of water. However, before someone could bring water he fell from his chair and collapsed. He was immediately taken to a near by private hospital, where the doctors on emergency duty refused to examine him, declaring him dead on arrival. This apparently healthy man has two young daughters (8yr and 11yrs old) and a non-working wife. He was earning a salary of fifty thousand, but had almost no savings. His life is also not insured.
This instance is not rare. There have been several such instances of young people dying suddenly. It raises serious questions on the health consciousness of our society – poor life style, preventive care and emergency help; social security of the workers in unorganized and SME sector; insensitiveness and incompetence of the hospital staff, etc.
2. A friend (56yrs) felt unease in the chest while working in his office in NOIDA. He rushed to a reputed hospital in South Delhi, where he was examined and advised a procedure involving the insertion of two stents in his heart arteries, immediately. The problem was that there was no room available in the hospital. The entire hospital was fully occupied. He was operated, on and, kept in the ICU for three days. On checking I discovered that most of the NCR hospitals are currently operating at near full capacity. Respiratory complications, dengue, and waterborne diseases like typhoid, and heart and kidney diseases are afflicting young and old alike.
So, it is not only diabetes and cancer that is a matter of concern for the Indian population. The heart, lungs, liver, and kidneys - all vital organs are getting weak. Overall immunity and stamina of a common Indian youth may not be optimal. As a country, we may idolize Virat Kohli, but only a handful of us can claim to be striving for a fitness regime like him.
3. Having traveled to various hospitals in NCR for two days, when the average AQI level was more than 500, I am feeling severe itching in my eyes and my throat is almost choked. Obviously, millions like me are suffering like this. The government has shut down schools, and imposed restrictions on driving vehicles and construction activities. Productivity is taking a massive hit. I am told that conditions in Mumbai are also not much better.
I strongly believe that the statistics we claim to be indicating progress are mostly meaningless. It is not progress. It is simply regression.
