Do it yourself

Continuing from yesterday (see Preparing for chaos -2 ) As I said earlier, the world will be a materially different place in five year from now. However, notwithstanding the technological advances and development of advanced forecasting techniques, it may not be accurately predict the contours of the global order in 2025. The learnings from great depression may only inform us that changes will be dramatic. However, these may not guide us about the nature and direction of the changes, because the present circumstances are very different from 1930s. Given that I am a tiny investor, and my concerns are mostly limited to the local Indian assets, I would like to only assess (a)    Where India stands in this melee? (b)    What changes are required in my investment strategy to mitigate the impact of transformative changes that may take place in next 5 years? I hear lot about a Industrial revolution in India. The government has spoken about many ideas like "Make ...

Continuing from yesterday ( see here ) The Indian economy suffers from a variety of deficits. The most talked about deficit, i.e., fiscal deficit in fact is the least worrisome amongst all the deficits, in my view. I believe that some of the most worrisome deficits include: 1.          Growth capital deficit 2.          Advanced technology deficit 3.          Skill deficit 4.          Trust deficit 5.          Compliance deficit 6.          Governance deficit 7.          Productivity deficit 8.          Social infrastructure deficit 9.          Employment opportunity de...

Continuing from yesterday ( see here ) As I highlighted yesterday, "Self Reliance" may be mostly a political slogan at this point in time; as not many people in the government, legislature and administration appear to be adequately clear about the concept itself. It would be a great idea if the government comes out with a white paper on the issue. In my view it is important to assimilate the following considerations, if we truly want to evolve into a 'Self Reliant" economy. First of all, we need to accept that "self reliance" is primarily a philosophical concept. Its economic implications are mostly incidental. The flow of "self reliance" therefore begins from the core of society, i.e., the individual, and moves outward toward the community and the State. For a State to be self reliant, all its constituents, i.e., individuals, communities, traditions, customs, culture, etc need to commit unconditionally to the objective of s...

In an interview with the Manchester Guardian in 1965, the then foreign minister of Pakistan Zulfikar Ali Bhutto famously said, “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own. We have no alternative.” The world has seen how Pakistan has built the nuclear bomb and what cost its citizens have paid for the toy that will perhaps never be unboxed. It may be argued that the nuclear arsenal build by Pakistan and India has created a strong enough deterrence for any war between the two countries. Regardless, we had a war in Kargil (1999) and significant rise in the violence in the Kashmir Valley and along the line of control (LoC) since both countries declared themselves to be the nuclear powers in 1998. India has struck twice deep into PoK and changed the status quo materially in J&K in past 5 years. Many soldiers and civilian die every year on the both sides of LoC; and Pakistan economy is surviving on the IMF support. Bhut...

The government has announced a spate of policy measures to put the economy back on the growth path. The measures and intent to encourage manufacturing in the country is however the most publicized and discussed about policy initiative. It is a clear departure from the extant policy of global cooperation and using bilateral and multilateral trade agreements to benefit from the resources and manufacturing prowess of partner countries , So far, we have not seen a comprehensive policy framework for the policy initiative. The basic principle of management would guide that to execute such a major policy intuitive, which may have significant impact on the lives of 140cr people, the planners must first lay down a detailed conceptual framework, which defines in very unambiguous terms, at least the following: (a)    The need for such policy initiative; especially the circumstances that have necessaitated the significant change in the policy direction and intent; ...