‘Climate Change’, ‘Clean Energy’, ‘Renewable Energy’ and ‘Sustainability’ have been the primary topics of discussions in most global summits, symposiums, bilateral and multilateral talks & agreements, political discourses, academic projects and even election campaigns for over a decade now.
“The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015, also lays significant emphasis on “Affordable and Clean Energy”, “Sustainable Cities and Communities”, and “Climate Action”. Most countries have made significant progress in increasing the share of renewable/clean energy in their respective energy mix. Reportedly, in 2022 alone 268 GW of new solar energy capacity will be added worldwide. As per various estimates, globally, solar installations are expected to cross 300 GW in 2023. IEA expects global solar PV capacity to rise by nearly 1500 GW in the 2022-27 period, surpassing natural gas by 2026 and coal by 2027. (see here)
As per the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, the worldwide sales of electric cars exceeded 10 million in 2022 and over 2.3million electric cars were sold in the first quarter of 2023. Agency expects “to see 14 million in sales by the end of 2023, representing a 35% year-on-year increase”. As per the latest projections of IEA, “the global outlook for the share of electric car sales based on existing policies and firm objectives has increased to 35% in 2030, up from less than 25% in the previous outlook. This implies a displacement of oil demand from the road transport sector by 5mbpd by 2030.
There are however some strong arguments against assuming a direct correlation between generation of renewable energy & use of electric vehicles and cut in emission of greenhouse gases; even though it is not denied that efforts to increase the share of renewable energy in total energy mix and greater adoption of electric vehicles may be material drivers of emission control.
The most popular argument is that running electric vehicles on energy produced by power plants using fossil fuels as feedstocks may not be the ideal solution for climate change.
However, a more logical line of argument is from a section of experts, which includes Vaclav Smil et. al. In a 2022 article in the Time Magazine, Smil opined that notwithstanding greater adoption of electric vehicles, solar energy etc., it would be impossible for the modern society to survive without man made materials, especially cement, steel, plastics and ammonia. Smil referred to these four materials as “the four pillars of modern civilization”.
To feed the global population, especially the fastest rising and most poor African population, ammonia synthesis is essential. In the words of Smil – “without the synthesis of ammonia, we could not ensure the very survival of billions of people alive today and yet to be born.” Imagining a modern life without plastic is also impossible. Building of modern infrastructure, sustainable cities with clean water, sanitation transportation would require ever rising quantities of steel and cement. For context, “the world now consumes in one year more cement than it did during the entire first half of the 20th century” and “an average car contains about 900 kilograms of steel”.
The decaying infrastructure in the developed countries needs urgent attention. For example, as Smil highlights, “in the US all sectors where concrete dominates, including dams, roads, and aviation get a D grade in nationwide engineering assessments”. Obviously, it would need to be renovated/reconstructed. Of course, the need to expand cities, transportation, sewerage, water supplies, telecommunication and power infrastructure remains unsatiated in the developing and underdeveloped economies.
For the aging global population, “plastics are now most indispensable in health care in general and in hospitals in particular. Life now begins (in maternity wards) and ends (in intensive care units) surrounded by plastic items made above all from different kinds of PVC: flexible tubes (for feeding patients, delivering oxygen, and monitoring blood pressure), catheters, intravenous containers, blood bags, sterile packaging, trays and basins, bedpans and bed rails, thermal blankets.”
Production of these four pillars of modern society shall not be possible without fossil fuels, in the foreseeable future. “global production of these four indispensable materials claims about 17 percent of the world's annul energy supply, and it generates about 25 percent of all CO2 emissions originating in the combustion of fossil fuels.
In conclusion, while the importance of emission control cannot be emphasized more, it is the sustainable lifestyle that may be the prerequisite for any workable climate change plan. Technology will definitely help to progress, but Gandhi would guide the path to progress.
