Do it yourself

The people in their late twenties have already stood witness to three massive economic/market crises (dotcom burst, subprime burst and Covid-19 pandemic) that (i) were not caused by a war or natural disaster; (ii) did not cause human suffering which was anywhere closer to the crises witnessed during 19^th and 20^th centuries; and (iii) were brought under control through monetary and fiscal stimuli within a short period of time.

In the past twenty-five years, the governments across the world have increasingly become more socialist. While serving the interests of crony capitalists, they have made sure to provide basic necessities of life to the common people – not only in their jurisdiction but much beyond it. The central bankers across the world have remained accommodative – keeping the markets sufficiently liquid, and cost of capital low to fuel consumption, support higher asset prices and ensure availability of adequate risk capital to fund tech innovation.

This generation has mostly lived in low inflation, low interest rates, constantly improving productivity due to tech innovation, accelerating speed of everything, improving longevity, globalized economies, contained geopolitical conflicts, and an environment promoting individualism against the spirit of society. Accordingly, this generation carries a strong faith in the central bankers, governments, technology, medicine, and mobility. Personal savings, family, austerity, tolerance, sacrifice, social ethos, patriotism are only a few of the concepts this generation may not be sufficiently versed with.

A famous Chinese curse goes, “May you find what you wish for”. The Gen Alpha, perhaps is affected by this curse. Riding the broomstick of unhindered aspirations, they feel entitled to get freedom, liberty, comfort and convenience, despite being mostly selfish in their approach towards society in general. They take peace and society support for granted. The very freedoms and comforts this generation seek might become their undoing, as they may not be adequately prepared for tougher times.

The events of the past few years are suggesting that things may change rather dramatically for this generation in the coming decade.

·         The governments are increasingly acquiring parochial character. The focus is evidently shifting to retraining fiscal profligacies. Frugal governments mean the younger people might have toll hard to make a living for themselves. This will happen when the technological developments would have eliminated most of the jobs requiring unskilled or semi-skilled workers.

·         The central bankers, as evident from the recent Fed commentary, have developed the fear of the endgame of this unmindful monetary expansion. Cheap and abundant money may not be available to fund redundant fancy tech innovations.

·         The efforts of the government to define the narrower contours of personal freedom and liberties are also conspicuous from the US to India. Conforming to social norms may become essential for survival, if this continues like this.

·         Excessive use of chemicals and changes in lifestyles have severely affected the procreation capabilities of both men and women, adversely affecting the demographics. “Not having family” may soon become a disease rather than an option.

·         Climate change may make food and water scarce for more than half of the world.

·         Ultra nationalism may trigger a war, for which not many youths would be prepared. This could lead to several times more lethal digital, chemical and even nuclear attacks. The misery that would follow is unfathomable. Of course it is the worst-case possibility, not a baseline assumption.

I am certainly not suggesting an end of the road for Gen Alpha. I am just expressing my sadness for the fact that my children may have to learn a few life lessons rather painfully.

I am confident about the capability of the young generation to quickly adapt to the changing environment. Gen Z and Alpha have grown up with smartphones, not stability—they’re naturally used to disruption. They might lack the thrift or stoicism of boomers, but they’ve got agility and a native grasp of systems (tech, social, political) that could see them through. I am sure the pain would forge something new, not just break them.

I would be keenly watching the developments in the areas of food and water; particularly, how the food production shifts from the farms to factories.