Vijay Kumar Gaba

Shade 1

Subhash Pandey (45yrs commerce graduate) was working as an account assistant at a small shoe factory in Kanpur when the nationwide lockdown was imposed in March 2020. He lives in a rented house, and has two daughters aged 12yr and 9yr. Jyoti, his wife (39yrs, political science graduate) undertakes tailoring assignments from a local boutique to help in meeting household expenses. Post lockdown, Subhash lost his job, and tailoring assignments for Jyoti have also reduced. The expenses on education of the daughters have risen; and kitchen expenses have also gone up due to food inflation. Subhash now works as a delivery agent for online retailers and food delivery services. He gets Rs7-10 per delivery he makes. He needs to make at least 80-100 deliveries per day to earn (net of fuel expenses) what he was earning before lockdown. Jyoti is now working 8hrs (against the earlier 4-5hr) doing miscellaneous jobs (tailoring, pickle making, packaging etc.) to earn the same amount. Their savings have mostly evaporated.

Shade 2

Rajiv Saxena, earned his Bachelor of Arts degree from CCS University (Merrut, UP) in 2020. He unsuccessfully searched for a job in Merrut for one year. He came to Delhi in 2021 and worked as a “gig worker” for six months. The money he earned was insufficient to meet his rent and food expenses. He decided to return home on Diwali and felt depressed. His father, a retired Army man, drew from his savings and converted the street facing room of their two room house into a small dailies shop, and constructed an additional room on the roof. Rajiv now sells eggs, bread, milk and toffees to the people living in his street. He competes with 2 more similar shops and 9 online suppliers. In the past two months he has earned Rs700 (before paying the electricity bill for his shop). The shop keeps him busy for 2-3hrs in a day. He spends the rest of his time watching “stuff” on his phone. His mother is worrying about his marriage already.

Shade 3

Om Pal Yadav (46yr, matriculate) is a marginal farmer in Shahjahanpur district of UP. He owns 10 bigha land (~1.5acre) and does sustenance farming, i.e., grows wheat, pulses, millets for self-consumption. His wife 42yrs and two sons (22yrs and 19yrs) help him in farming. In his spare time Om Pal works as gardener in some houses in Bareilly, 55kms away from his village. His son also undertakes MNREGA jobs in his village. The wages pay for their non-food expenses. They have no savings; a semi pucca house and no private transport. They are expecting to get a motorcycle in dowry when the elder son gets married later this year. Last year, their total family earnings were Rs1,88,000 (including the market value of their farm produce). If all three male members had worked in industry or construction, the minimum wage they would have earned is 2.5x their present earnings.

Shade 4

Vivek Gupta (38yrs IIT, IIM), worked with a multinational investment bank for 7yrs, before he decided to take the plunge and join a B2B startup as partner in 2016. His wife Ritika (37yr MBA), also a banker, fully supported him. His father, a retired civil servant, was initially against the idea but supported him nonetheless. After 5yrs, the startup has burned more than US$7.5mn in cash and has reached the end of the road. Vivek is broke – financially, psychologically and emotionally. Ritika is not able to take it anymore. She wanted to start a family, but it was getting too late. She has filed for divorce. Vivek also lost his father to Covid in 2020. There are some debts to repay. His friends are trying to find him a job, but things are really tough. The best offer so far is 75% lower than what he drew as his last salary in 2016.

Shade 5

Aditi Shekhar, (29yrs, CA, CS, Coimbatore) was happy being married to Rajashekhar who managed his own ready to eat snacks factory. The business is doing well. After their marriage in 2017, she attended the family business for a few months. The option of her working for someone else was never discussed. However, after the birth of their son in 2019, she has become a fulltime housewife. The decision of her non-working was not discussed within the family. It was simply assumed that she does not need to work now as her domestic responsibilities have increased. Unsurprisingly, the state of affairs does not seem to be bothering Aditi even a bit. She is happy managing the kitchen and raising the kid. Of course she is not alone; there are millions of professionally qualified women who have accorded higher priority to household responsibilities over pursuing a professional career. Not all of them may have chosen house over office voluntarily. Many of them may be unhappy, frustrated and feeling wasted.

Unemployment is one of the most pressing problems that the Indian economy is facing. As per latest data published by Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), “India's unemployment rate reached a four-month high of 7.91% in December as compared to 7% and 7.75 per cent in November and October 2021”.

As per CMIE, the urban unemployment rate is now 9.30% while rural employment is 7.28%. Both urban and rural unemployment saw significant rise from 8.21% and 6.44%, respectively, in the previous month.

The government spokespersons have vehemently rejected these figures arguing that the government schemes have resulted in better self-employment opportunities; farmers’ income has increased materially and public sector hiring is improving. The massive infrastructure building thrust of the government is creating a significant number of new jobs. The production linked incentive schemes, incentives to startups etc. are creating new job opportunities in the private sector also. Often the EPFO data is cited to showcase improving employment conditions in the country.

During my recent visits to UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand I did not find much evidence that would support the government contentions. Moreover, the debate on unemployment is ignoring the serious problem of unemployability, underemployment, and disguised unemployment that are rising even faster than the “unemployment”, as defined by the official agencies. The lower woman participation rate must be a serious policy concern; but we are yet to see a concerted policy action on this.

Some more thoughts on this tomorrow.