Wednesday, July 4, 2018

What are you scared off?

A portion of the railway foot over bridge in Mumbai collapsed in Mumbai. Last year also a bridge had fallen in Mumbai.
It is totally unfortunate to note that the concept of preventive maintenance to the civil structures is still not very popular in India. At the core of this apathy is perhaps our total disregard for the value of human life and right to people to live with dignity.
Thought for the day
"Fools may our scorn, not envy, raise. For envy is a kind of praise."
—John Gay (American, 1685-1732)
Word for the day
Kakaesque (adj)
Marked by a senseless, disorienting, often menacing complexity:
Malice towards none
Delhi government wants to teach happiness to school children!!

What are you scared off?

A chance conversation with a reputable fund manager and a small group of businessmen was quite perplexing. They discussed the political scenario at length. In the view of the said fund manager, PM Modi getting reelected to the office in 2019 is a key risk to the Indian financial markets, especially equities. The businessmen mostly nodded in agreement.
When I asked, "is there any substantive evidence to establish that full majority governments have performed better than the minority governments or coalitions with numerous parties having divergent agenda?", no satisfactory answer came through.
I realized that this thought is in fact be bothering many market participants. In recent months some prominent global fund managers, brokerages, and business advisory firms have also highlighted PM Modi not getting reelected would be a key risk to Indian equities.
To my knowledge, no one has so far specified any substantive reasons for this fear and concerns. I am afraid to say this, but unfortunately, this view is mostly driven by deep prejudices, ignorance and arbitrariness.
For example consider this—
Resolution of Satyam Computer has so far been one of the best examples of efficient government intervention in resolving the cases of corporate fraud and misgovernance. The intervention was swift, effective and acceptable to most stakeholders.
Do you remember who steered the Satyam resolution from government side?
Prem Chand Gupta, a minister from Lalu Yadav's RJD quota in UPA-1.
In the memories of the current generation name of APJ Abdul Kalam is etched in indelible ink. He inspired the young and old alike. It would not be an exaggeration, if I say that APJ is in the same league as Mahatma Gandhi, insofar as commanding the reverence of common people is concerned.
Do you remember who was one of the key instruments in APJ's election as the President of India?
Mulayam Singh Yadav, who broke ranks with the united opposition (People's front) in supporting NDA's nominee APJ Abdul Kalam.
On my recent visit to UP, I enquired from people about the law and order situation in the state. Almost everyone agreed that law and order situation in UP was much better during the Mayawati's tenure as CM.
Sharad Yadav, Omar Abdullah, Mamta Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Ram Vilas Pawan, et. al. handled key ministries during AB Vajpayee led NDA's regime and there are no exceptional complaints of inefficiencies and corruption!
 I. K. Gujral who ran a government with handful of MPs, is still respected as honest and good PM. Whereas there are few who remember Rajiv Gandhi (who had brute majority of 414 MPs) as a great PM!
What I am trying to say is that with her 1.3bn children Mother India is far stronger than a few politicians.
Enterprise of the millions of Indians forms core of the Indian economy. Few good politicians can perhaps enhance their capabilities and output a little. Many bad politicians can perhaps slow them down a bit. But no party, individual or group of individuals could stop them.
The worries over who is and who is not prime minister in my view are mostly unwarranted.
If market does correct materially only due to this reason, I would take it as a massive opportunity to avail maximum possible leverage and buy Indian equities.

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