" Honesty is for
the most part less profitable than dishonesty"
—Plato (Greek, 427-347BC)
Word
for the day
Humbuggery (n)
Pretense; sham
Malice
towards none
I am no big fan of either
Saif or Kareena.
The young Taimur has so far
done nothing to draw my notice.
First random
thought this morning
All of you must have seen
students who are not confident of what they have learned in the past many
months, and want to revise the entire syllabus just minutes before entering the
examination hall. I have even heard some parents complaining that their ward
could not do well in exams because he/she woke up late on the exam day and
could not revise the notes just before the exams.
The CMs and other senior
government functionaries of the five states where polls are likely to be held
in next few months these states are behaving just like these students. In just
two months, they want to make their respective states look developed, people
friendly, business friendly, safe, best place to live for minority communities
& the backwards, and much more.
Driven by hope, lacking in optimism
Despite a setback in 4Q2016, the
year has been largely satisfactory for Indian investors.
While the benchmark indices are
almost unchanged for the year, diversified equity portfolios have yielded 6 to
10% return for the calendar year. The return in hybrid funds has been better in
9-11% range as the fall in bond yields led to outperformance of bond funds
which yielded 12-15%.
In other asset classes, global
commodities have done really well with crude gaining over 50%, and industrial
metals and coal gaining from 15-70% during the year. Despite sharp fall in last
couple of months, precious metals are also higher by 7-11% yoy.
Real estate has seen a mixed trend
this year. While the housing prices have remain mostly subdued, the commercial
and retail assets have seen a revival in many markets.
Standing at the doorsteps of the new
year 2017, however, the investors are a worried lot. The optimism seen since
March of 2016 is nowhere to be seen.
The fear of unknown is inarguably
the dominant sentiment. The impact if changes in US and European politics on
global economics and markets is not known yet. But most forecasts are hinting
at acceleration in popularity of nationalist agenda against the globalization.
A careful reading of the past few
statements of many large central bankers highlights their frustration with the
current "new normal" and "whatever it takes" stance, that
has been the hallmark of their policy since 2009. US federal reserve has made a
beginning to normalize the unconventional zero rate policy. ECB and BoJ too
seem to be willing, circumstances permitting. 2017 will be keenly watched for
any "disorderly normalization" of the extant policy stance of many
central bankers.
So far, most positive statements
from market experts, appear based more on hope rather than optimism. The slight
tremor in the voice and worries hidden between forehead wrinkles though
evidently belies the conviction.
I do unconditionally believe in
what Andy said to Red in Shawshank Redemption (1994) "Remember, Red, hope
is a good thing, maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies". I
personally therefore do not mind driving into 2017 with a tank-full of hope.
Though I would keep the seatbelt tightly fastened, speed well within limits,
and be mostly driving in slow lane.
Next week, I will be sharing my
views on investment strategy for 2017 and beyond with the readers.
Would be glad to receive
suggestions as to what specific points I should be dealing in my strategy write
up. Thanks!
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