Thought for the day
"I'd like to live as a poor man with lots of money."
-
Pablo Picasso (Spanish, 1881-1973)
Word for the day
Grubstake (n)
Money or other assistance furnished at a time of need or of
starting an enterprise.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
You would not know if you were dead. Only others would know.
It's same for stupidity.
Shenanigans of a redeemer
The recent prints on trade
data read with domestic core
inflation, indirect
tax collection numbers, employment
data and result
expectations for the quarter ending March 2015 present a clear picture of
the state of affairs at this given point in time.
·
The external demand environment is tough and not
likely to improve in near term.
·
The domestic manufacturing may have bottomed,
but the pickup is still a few miles away.
·
One certain factor in lower core inflation is
lack of pricing power.
·
Execution delays continue to reflect poorly on
the employment growth.
The incumbent government shall complete its first year in office
in four weeks. The report cards presented by various ministers, especially by
the Finance Minister in recent speech
at Peterson Institute for International Economics, claims to have achieve
wonders. I would like to leave the assessment on this to discerning readers.
In past few days, five events have particularly dominated media
headlines.
·
PM Modi's yet another "successful"
foreign visit. The longest one this time.
·
Congress VP Rahul Gandhi's return from 57day
introspection sabbatical.
·
Sania Mirza and Saina Nehwal achieving which no
other Indian woman has done so far, viz., No. 1 global ranking in their
respective sports.
·
TCS deciding to distribute some of its cash pile
to its employees and RIL regaining India's top profit maker position.
·
J&K plunging back into unrest after
relatively peaceful decade.
Making PM part of the problem
PM Modi has made friends with many important global leaders like
Japanese PM, Australian PM, British PM, Canadian PM and American President.
One wonders whether it is a reflection of the charisma and
congenial personality of the prime minister or something else.
The trivia is that if PM were so charismatic, congenial and
friendly, why would he fail in making friends with opposition leaders like
Rahul Gandhi, Mulayam Singh, Lalu Yadav, Mamta Baneerjee, Naveen Patnaik,
Nitish Kumar etc.
The argument of untouchability of BJP is weak. Bharat Ratan Atal
Bihari Vajpayee was also a BJP Prime Minister and he was admired and befriended
by all opposition leaders.
We need to examine whether these global leaders are smitten by
the persona of PM Modi or merely by the irresistible lure of Indian markets in
a time when recession is knocking furiously on their respective doors.
In the case of latter, the bonhomie displayed by these leaders
calls for greater caution rather than celebration.
It's not the opposition, but the friends on his side of the
divide
I have been highlighting since past many months that the
incumbent government suffers from all the limitations which constrained the
preceding regimes. The majority in Lok Sabha is just an illusory comfort.
If only number of Lok Sabha MPs could bring about the socio-economic
metamorphosis we all are longing for (at least in our public discourse), Rajiv
Gandhi could have done it long ago.
The only differentiating factor is that the government is led by
an experienced politician who is committed, has shown understanding of the
problems, has some vision of the solutions and track record of delivery.
Unfortunately, in the course of his election campaign he has
raised expectations of the people beyond manageable levels and frequent state
elections are not letting him moderate these expectations.
The critics of the prime ministers nonetheless need to
appreciate that he is a Valuable Resource of this country. It is for us to
decide how best we want to make use of him. We could pull his legs and laugh.
Or we could suggest him solutions for the myriad of problems faced by this
country and cooperate in implementation these solutions.
This does not require giving a missed call at 1800 266 2020 or
attending RSS shakha or subscribing to the frivolity of VHP etc.
The prime minister himself is making all the right noises. He
wants people to walk with him on the path to progress. Unfortunately, even his
horsemen would not let him do this.
To appreciate what am I saying, just read 100 latest tweets of
various minister in his government. They just eulogize the PM, putting on the
highest pedestal far away from the people and thus make him the part of the
problem rather than becoming themselves part of a solution.
Give him some time and support
One of the most reputable industrialists in the country, Ratan
Tata recently, advised his peers not to get "disillusioned and
dissatisfied with the new government so fast".
"He (PM Narendra Modi) is still in the early stages of
defining what he hopes to deliver a new India. The implementation hasn't really
taken form this year," Tata said recently in a program.
Coming from a seasoned persons like Ratan Tata, this exhort is
significant in many ways. To me it highlights five things:
(a) The business
community in the country is restless and beginning to feel disillusioned and
dissatisfied by the performance of incumbent government. At an earlier instance
HDFC chairman Deepak Parekh had also expressed similar sentiments.
(b) The government is
still some distance away from defining the framework for delivering on the
promises made during pre-elections and post election period.
(c) The government
has certainly fallen short on execution in the past eleven months.
(d) Notwithstanding
the popular narrative and rhetoric, wise amongst the herd understand that it is
not easy to realize the dream of new India, but it is within the realm of
reality nonetheless.
(e) No single person,
party or government could deliver the New India. It has to be a popular movement.
Cynicism, opportunism, partisanship aside, the country as a whole would need to
support the movement.
The best
example is the effort invested by two young women Temsutula Imsong and
Darshika Shah's in cleaning of famous Prabhu Ghat in Kashi. It is for us drive
inspiration from these two young women and contribute to building new India or
wait for the Modi government to fail just to enjoy a few moments of sadistic
pleasure.
Rahul Gandhi has an opportunity
In my view, the space for a sustainable national opposition to
NDA is still vacant and the Congress Party is the most preferred and natural
choice to fill the void.
Rahul Gandhi has taken a good two month break from active
politics. Despite his uninspiring speech at Sunday Kissan Rally, I believe he
has the opportunity to make a new beginning. People will forget and forgive all
his previous failing if he could reinvent himself and his party.
It will be unfortunate if he squanders this opportunity.
Inspiration vs. reverence
While helping them prepare for their GK class test, I asked my
daughters (10 & 12 year old) who inspires them most. Both of them answered
in a blink - "Sania and Saina". One could clearly see the twinkles in
their eyes.
"What do you think of Narendra Modi?", I asked.
"Ain't he also inspiring?" Son of a tea vendor becoming prime
minister - "Doesn't he remind you of Cinderella story?"
Stared at my face - as if they were searching for the answer I
am expecting - both paused for few minutes and softly uttered "Not
really". The indifference in their response conspicuous and bit
concerting.
The children who just a year ago had shouted 'Abki Baar Modi
Sakar" for more than two months, debated with their friends, even
requested me to vote for a Shiv Sena candidate notorious for criminal
antecedents - are not inspired by his leadership.
There has to be something wrong. My pursuit to find the truth pushed
me to dial a few acquaintances.
The outcome was not surprising. The truth is that people
believed Modi to be a redeemer (Taranhaar). He is expected to redeem all
the problems faced by the populace. That's his duty.
Prince Gautama followed the path of salvation and became Budha.
But no king would wish his son to become Budha.
Corporate performance meets the muted expectations
The result picked up steam last week. TCS met the muted street
expectations. Highlighted the challenges in external demand environment.
Managed the currency fluctuations well and sustained the pricing. The surprise
was the decision to reward employees by generous bonus. We are yet to ascertain
whether TCS is finding it hard to stop talent from flowing to more lucrative
e-commerce and other IT start-up businesses.
RIL became the largest profit earner in the country once again.
The numbers were though not very inspiring. Petrochemical business which was
expected to turn corner from the current year is still suffering from low
demand and lower margins. Telecom business execution is lagging behind.
Heaven burning again
Both the Modi and Mufti governments have mishandled the
situation in the Valley. The people returning after holidaying in Srinagar
suggest that the situation there is likely to worsen from here.
An Army brigadier candidly told me - both the governments are
not too keen to find a solution. A simpler thing could have been to construct a
gated colony of 1000-1500 houses in Srinagar and allot these dwellings to
Kashmiri Pundits through a draw of lots, instead of shenanigans of announcing
that a "separate township" will be created (with no plan whatsoever
on the board).
Some interesting charts
US disinflation may be real
US groceries prices fell 0.5% last month, the
largest decline in nearly six years.
Demography explains EU low growth more than anything else
Figures released by the European Union’s statistics agency Thursday show
the 28-member bloc is running low on children, a trend that is set to
continue. People aged less than 15 years accounted for 18.6% of the population
in 1994, but just 15.6% in 2014. Eurostat estimates the rate of decline will
slow in the coming decades, but just 15% of the population will be children in
2050.
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