Thought for the day
“Today was good. Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one.”
-
Dr. Seuss (American, 1904-1991)
Word for the day
Transfigure (v)
To change in outward form or appearance; transform.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
Will FIFA cup 2014 travel to Europe this summer?
Blame it on Rio
I had a chance meeting with a small group of Rio bound Delhi
realtors yesterday. The discussion expectedly was not quite enlightening or
intellectually stimulating. Nonetheless, I found a few points worth
chronicling.
Firstly, none of the group members had any interest in the game
of football. They are visiting Brazil for indulging in cheap booze, legal
betting and abundant sex!
Secondly, they are disappointed in Modi Sarkar. In past three
weeks since the new government took over, they have not seen any improvement in
business. Buyer enquiries continue to be scant and often just exploratory in
nature. On the other hand potential sellers have decided to wait for markets to
improve. The inventory in market has reduced. Therefore now they have much less
scope to keep themselves engaged.
Thirdly, the liquidity condition in the informal market has
tightened further in past few weeks for some inexplicable reasons. This group
suspects that perhaps fearing stricter surveillance many “cash lenders” have
slowed down their activities. Other doubts were that (a) there are huge
defaults in election betting and (b) the losing non-BJP candidates are refusing
to pay up the money borrowed for election related expenses. Usually, as per one
inebriated group member, they would have paid up by way of an administrative
favor.
The revelation to me in this whole one hour conversation was as
follows:
(a)
There may be many participants in the equity
markets who have entered post election just for making few fast bucks. These
are not serious investors or even traders. Historically, these lottery seekers
have exited market with material losses and disappointment. A deeper correction
might be needed to drive these non-serious players out.
(b)
The business recovery might take little longer
than presently anticipated. The “bitter pill” that Narendra Modi is frequently
alluding to may actually cause lot of pain and dismay in certain segments of
business community.
(c)
Electoral reforms as envisaged in various
speeches of BJP leaders, even if partially implemented, may dynamically alter
the contours of business-politician relationship. Businesses surviving and
thriving purely on the basis of administrative and political patronage could
face serious existential threat under that circumstance.
(d)
Tourism is a “big” development idea in the Modi
government scheme of things. We have heard about promotion of thematic tourism,
pilgrimage and cultural tourism.
I am not sure how BJP’s conventional ethos would be able to
co-opt the Rio, Macau, Vegas and Bangkok type tourism their public promotion
schemes.
Education tourism (parents visiting their wards studying abroad)
and immigrant tourism (family members visiting the people living and working
abroad) is a big drain on RBI’s dollar chest. The government may need to work
on (a) how to bring student back for internship during their vacations and (b)
how to bring young Indian living abroad to spend their vacations in India with
their family members.
No comments:
Post a Comment