Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Bitter pill alone is not enough


Thought for the day
Hence it comes about that all armed Prophets have been victorious, and all unarmed Prophets have been destroyed.”
-          Niccolo Machiavelli (Italian, 1469-1527)
Word for the day
Drake (n)
A valley with steeply sloping sides
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
Narendra Modi to Shankracharya Swaroopanand Saraswati – “O’ lord thou are supreme amongst all wise, a truly elevated and enlightened soul, please enlighten me ‘what is Dharma’ and ‘who is God’?
 

Bitter pill alone is not enough


Two people who would certainly be delighted by the decisions to hike rail fares, and proposal to hike energy prices are former Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh (MMS) and former Finance Minister P. Chidambaram (PC). Despite their best effort and intentions they could not do this due to pressure from party (read Ms. Sonia Gandhi) and supporting parties and allies (read SP, BSP, DMK, NCP and TMC).

I am sure incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi (NaMo) and Finance Minister Arun Jaitely (AJ) are completely conscious of the fact that not letting the short term political expediency overwhelm economic compulsions has decimated the national level influence of Sonia Gandhi, Mulayam Singh, Mayawati, Karunanidhi, Shard Pawar and Mamata Banerjee; even though these people would still like to believe that it was inefficient handling of economy by MMS and PC that led to their electoral rout.

Having said the obvious, I would like to flag this to the NaMo and AJ that the medicine that can completely cure a serious disease in early stages may be totally ineffective in the late stages of same disease even in materially high dosage. In such circumstances either surgery is a completely different line of treatment is warranted.

The diseases of inflation and fiscal impropriety in case of Indian economy are, in my view, have advanced to a higher stage.

A small fiscal correction through subsidy rationalization and disinvestment in public sector enterprises (PSEs) though critically important may not be sufficient measures.

In my view, besides effectively and immediately containing their spillover effect on consumer inflation these measures must be adequately supplemented by necessary structural corrections. The “bitter pill” given alone may break the proverbial camel’s neck (in a potentially drought year) and kill the still fragile recovery in sentiments.

In particular, I feel, the following must be considered for almost immediate implementation:

(a)   Dismantling of monopoly of public sector enterprise over sale and distribution of energy. Oil marketing, coal mining and sale, natural gas sales and distribution infrastructure businesses should be opened to free competition with adequate constitutional protection (unlike last time when oil marketing was opened to private entities without appropriate assurance as to sustainability of the model).

(b)   The purchasing power of household consumer should be adequately protected and enhanced both through fiscal and monetary means, especially considering that implementation of GST will likely hit him most.
A line, clear and thick, should be drawn between compliant and non-compliant businessmen. Those who are in habit of defaulting should be severely punished. But consider adequately supporting the “good” enterprise to immediately kick start the investment cycle.

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