Thought for the day
“Endorsing an idea doesn't mean you endorse any interpretation of it, or everything done in its name, under any circumstance.” -Unknown
Word for the day
Arraign (v)
To accuse or charge in general; criticize adversely; censure.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
To accuse or charge in general; criticize adversely; censure.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
My Mother India is the supreme deity. She is held on the highest pedestal of unquestionable extreme reverence & devotion by 1.3bn Indians and admired by many foreigners. She is above all respect, insult, criticism, attacks, insinuations, and malaise.
The one demeaned, smeared or insulted easily by mere pictorial depictions, refusal to sing her praise etc. is not my Mother. Is she yours’?
Setting the context for post election market perspective
2014 general
elections in India are being seen as a watershed in the political history of India.
There is near consensus, a rarity, amongst political analysts and commentators
on this issue. The decisive change in the constitution of electorate in favor
of under 25yrs voters; emergence of a larger than life personality (first in
post Indira era) as key contender for the top post; and overwhelming disregard
for established political ideologies in bargain for political power are the key
contours defining the watershed.
With little
ideological support to back, all political parties are scrambling to find
issues. It has never occurred in my memory that less than one month for
elections to begin, there is no clarity on “the key election issue”. As of now
it is “undefined Gujarat model of governance” vs. “bickering over moral and
legal accountability for 2002 riots” with Narendra Modi at center of debate.
Though occasionally
parties try to obfuscate the public discourse with more pertinent issues like
unemployment, inflation, and economic development; but these issues have so far
mostly remained at the fringe in the election strategy. The issue of corruption
that dominated the December assembly elections has been effectively sidelined
by understandably united and concerted efforts of all parties to put “clouded”
leaders back in fray.
It is in this context
that we need to form post election market perspective for an appropriate
investment strategy.
My thesis in this
regard could be summarized as follows:
(a)
Expect no radical change in the economic
policies and program post elections, irrespective of the constitution (BJP led
NDA, Congress led UPA or any other alliance) and form of the government
(majority or minority).
(b)
In past six months execution at policy level has
improved dramatically. The incumbent Congress led UPA government has perhaps
achieved more in past one year than it did in preceding nine years. I believe
this trend is irreversible and will only accelerate post election, irrespective
of the outcome of elections. Burdened by humongous expectations, a Narendra Modi
led government will be obligated to perform much better in the short term.
(c)
A Narendra Modi led government is likely to face
stronger resistance from left leaning sustainability activists. We might
therefore even higher judicial intervention in policy matters relating to
environment, compensation for displacement & rehabilitation, and allocation
of natural resources. The issue of probity may dominate the allocation of
resources and process if licensing, unfavorably and sometimes unreasonably
impacting businesses and people popularly perceived closer to the new
administration. A third front government would be actually best placed in these
terms.
(d)
A continuation of effort seen in past 6months
will be the best case scenario for markets in short term. A more “populist
& Keynesian” (looser monetary & fiscal policy to stimulate economy) or
fiscally tighter (higher taxes, lower government spending) could both be
painful for markets in the short term.
…to continue
tomorrow
Readers can send
their views, comments, criticism to the author at vijaygaba.investrekk@gmail.com
Follow @VIJAYGABA
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