Do it yourself

Thought for the day “Don't be afraid of missing opportunities. Behind every failure is an opportunity somebody wishes they had missed.” -Lily Tomlin (American, 1939 - ) Word for the day Dandy (n) A man who is excessively concerned about his clothes and appearance; a fop. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day If RaGa, NaMo and AK are all challengers – who is the defender in these election? Make hay while sun shine but get back home ahead of cows I had stated earlier that we are witnessing a good trading opportunity in Indian equities. The opportunity is presented by a multitude of factors. The primary being (a) likely reversal of rate cycle in US that may lead to large scale rotation of money out of US bonds and into risk assets including EM equities; (b) maintenance and likely enhancement of monetary stimulus by central banks in Japan, EU and China; (c) cyclical up move in some Indian macro indicators against...

Thought for the day “Effective leadership is not about making speeches or being liked; leadership is defined by results not attributes.” -Peter Drucker (American, 1909-2005) Word for the day Vigilant (adj) Keenly watchful to detect danger; wary. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Heard Meera Sanyal and Medha Patekar – AAP candidates from Mumbai. Both appear standing at opposite ends of the economic policy spectrum. In search of new leadership - II As suggested in my clarification yesterday, I believe that we are still some distance from the new bull market. Nonetheless, it is a good idea to prepare the ground and sow the seed well in advance. I have expressed my opinion in many earlier posts also, that the bull market in Indian equities will commence mostly due to domestic reasons. The global factors, primarily liquidity and soft commodity prices may provide some extra impetus. Therefore, the positioning has to b...

Thought for the day “I always avoid prophesying beforehand, because it is a much better policy to prophesy after the event has already taken place.” -Winston Churchill (English, 1874-1965) Word for the day Fussbudget (n) A fussy or needlessly fault-finding person. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day China slowing, Russia stagnant and Brazil downgraded. Only “I” of the BRIC seems to be doing well at the moment! Stop press! I believe markets are in neutral territory at present. The bear market has ended, but bull market is still some distance away. The current up move is likely to strengthen further. But it is merely a trading opportunity, not to be mistaken for a secular bull market. Apparently my past couple of posts have caused some confusion amongst readers as to what is my present stance on Indian equities. Some readers have pointed that I have been generally bearish on Indian equities but some recent posts have exu...

Thought for the day “A man who wants to lead the orchestra must turn his back on the crowd.” --Max Lucado (American, 1955 - ) Word for the day Philately (n) The collecting of stamps and other postal matter as a hobby or an investment (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Are political parties waiting for Supreme Court to fix age of retirement for politicians? In search of new leadership Usually all new bull markets begin with new leadership with leaders of previous bull markets taking a back seat. For example, late 1980’s bull market was led by commodities like cement, steel and energy. Then commodities had a bad decade in 1990s. Late 1990’s bull market was driven by new economy businesses like IT, media and communication. For next many years most of these businesses did not do well. Last bull market (2003-2007) was driven by credit and investment theme. Large projects (power, roads, ports, real estate development etc.) their f...

Thought for the day “A line has to be drawn somewhere between what is essential and what is peripheral.” -Sargent Shriver (American, 1915 -) Word for the day Totem (n) A natural object or an animate being, as an animal or bird, assumed as the emblem of a clan, family, or group. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day So many bureaucrats, police and army officers joining electoral politics! Is it good or bad? Many of these (or perhaps all) are disgruntled and might have their own agenda. For example, imagine MoS (defence) V. K. Singh vs. Army Chief or MoS (Home) R. K. Singh vs. CBI Chief! What if Modi juggernaut stops short of 7RCR? As things stand today, the following scenarios could materialize on 17-18 th May when counting for votes is completed: (a)    An NDA (pre-poll alliance) majority government led by Narendra Modi. If BJP gets 210 seats on its own. (b)    A new front majority gov...

Thought for the day “The most perfect political community is one in which the middle class is in control, and outnumbers both of the other classes.” -Aristotle (Greek, 384-322BC) Word for the day S usurrant (adj) Softly murmuring; whispering (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Does Crimea offer any lessons for Kashmir or vice versa? Can Modi make a China out of India? The limited implications of general elections in terms of industry performance would be better visibility of order flow for capital goods from 2015, improvement in working capital cycle. Improvement in capacity utilization level would depend on the correction in inventory level, pick up in consumption demand and higher government plan expenditure.   During InvesTrekk team’s latest intensive tour of 73 constituencies in UP, Bihar, Uttrakhand, MP and Delhi, we did notice a sublime support for BJP PMship nominee Narendra Modi ( see here for more details ). Th...

Thought for the day “In order to carry a positive action we must develop here a positive vision.” -Dalai Lama (Tibetan, 1935-) Word for the day Venerable (adj) Commanding respect because of great age or impressive dignity; worthy of veneration or reverence, as because of high office or noble character: (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day What if B. S. Yeddyurappa and Pawan Bansal win top leaders of AAP lose the elections? Would that mean victory of evil over good or just that the current movement against corruption is misdirected? Markets still in twilight zone I firmly believe that Indian equities completed a four and half year (July 2007 to December 2011) bear market in mid 2011. The bear market was mostly led by slowing trend growth due to declining investment and consumption demand, steady deterioration in macro indicators like inflation, fiscal and current account deficit, exchange rate, rise in cost of capital and ...

Thought for the day “ Endorsing an idea doesn't mean you endorse any interpretation of it, or everything done in its name, under any circumstance. ” - Unknown Word for the day Arraign (v) To accuse or charge in general; criticize adversely; censure. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day My Mother India is the supreme deity. She is held on the highest pedestal of unquestionable extreme reverence & devotion by 1.3bn Indians and admired by many foreigners. She is above all respect, insult, criticism, attacks, insinuations, and malaise. The one demeaned, smeared or insulted easily by mere pictorial depictions, refusal to sing her praise etc. is not my Mother. Is she yours’? Setting the context for post election market perspective 2014 general elections in India are being seen as a watershed in the political history of India. There is near consensus, a rarity, amongst political analysts and commentators on this issue. The decisive change in the const...