It is a common perception among countrymen that the Congress
Party and therefore UPA government is controlled by the Gandhi family, mostly
Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and her son Mr. Rahul Gandhi.
It is also a popular practice for the Congressmen to publically
ascribe all successful endeavor of the government or the Congress Party to the
Gandhi family and all the failures and delinquencies of the government and
Congress Party to others.
The paradox however is that when someone conforms to the said
perception and practice usually no one believes him/her.
For example, when a Congress spokesperson ascribes the loss of
Congress party in last UP election to the local Party unit rather than Rahul
Gandhi – not a soul in the country believes him. The spokesperson fully knows
that no one will likely believe his statement, but still he/she makes it.
Similarly, the government’s media campaign claims credit for
MNREGA, Food Security, Aadhar, RTI, Bharat Nirman, but Congress spokespersons
ascribe all this to Mrs. Gandhi. Often when at a press briefing about cabinet
decisions someone says that the Cabinet took ‘X’ decision, no one takes it at
par. The popular retort is that the decisions are taken at 10 Janpath, the
Cabinet just endorses it. But still the practice goes on.
The unfortunate part is that when a Congress leader does make an
honest statement, like the Criminal Politician Ordinance bashing at the Press
Club in Delhi, no one believes him/her either. (Also see Another Good
Omen)
The point in contention is that when the person making a
statement knows that no one will believes him/her; person listening to such
statement knows what the statement is going to be and that he/she is not going
to believe that – then why the farce is continuing?
In our view, this highlights the natural tendency of people to
be conformist and futility of being contrarian.
In constructing our model portfolio (Also see Looking
beyond 2014 and Constructing
a model portfolio) we struggled with this complexity a lot. We examined
many contrarian views and ideas and also examined the success of these views
and ideas in anteriority. We discovered that there have been many isolated
cases of large gains being made through contrarian ideas/view. But most
contrarian investors who did not convert to conformism usually perished. Most successful
legendary investors have conformed to the classical investment theory.
We therefore decided not to care about contrarian view/ideas in
construction of a model portfolio that is aimed primarily for household
investors and not professional fund managers.
This makes our strategy boring and predictable. But then we are
not in the business of entertainment. The wealth creation is a serious business
and so should be the process.
Thought for the day
“Extreme positions are not succeeded by moderate ones, but by contrary extreme positions.”
Word of the day
Tittup (v)
To move, especially to walk, in an exaggerated prancing or bouncing way, as a spirited horse.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Shri Nārada Uvāca
What does Yellen as Fed Chief mean—
(a) More QE
(b) No tapering anytime soon
(c) No change in policy stance, i.e., measured tapering during 2014
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