Today in a significant development the Sharad Yadav and
Nitish Kumar led Janta Dal (United) decided to part ways with NDA.
The immediate consequences of this decision include:
(a)
Exit of BJP from the NDA government in Bihar.
Bihar will now have a solo JDU government. Though technically JDU is 4MLAs
short of simple majority mark in the state assembly, there is no apparent
threat to the government as some Independent and Congress MLAs would be happy
to extend support to the government.
(b)
The Congress led UPA II government at the center
can breathe easy for the time being as it gets another potential “outside
supporter” in JDU, should SP or BSP threaten to withdraw their support. Implying
that the elections though look imminent would happen only in 2014.
Though JDU is limited to Bihar only, this move may have
larger national implications in future. For example:
(1)
As things stand today there could be greater
understanding between various non-aligned regional parties like JDU, TMC, BJD,
DMK, SP/BSP, TRS, TDP etc. Providing a larger ready block to Congress and
BJP post poll, but with a larger negotiating power.
(2)
Our ground assessment suggests that JDU may not
be able to maintain its tally of 19 MPs without BJP support. Whereas BJP should
be able keep its 10-12 MPs from Bihar. This may see the so far covert Sharad
Yadav – Nitish Kumar conflict coming to the fore and leading to new equation in
the state before next assembly elections. It is not improbable that Sharad
Yadav supporters try to work out a split in JDU legislative party and form a
government with BJP, which is just 30 short of half way mark, after 2014
parliament elections.
(3)
BJP now has no option but to come together and
put its entire weight behind Narendra Modi. With Shiv Sena still split and BJP
faring badly in Punjab assembly(to the discomfort of SAD), BJP has only AIDMK
as a large potent pre-poll ally. This implies that failure to reach 175+ mark
on its own would cut Narendra Modi to much smaller size and emergence of Rahul
Gandhi as undisputed National leader.
(4)
The key battle for the government will therefore
be fought in UP. Expect a violent fierce battle there as all four (SP,
BSP, Congress, BJP) try to get maximum out of 80 seats at stake. In this
context Amit Shah, Narendra Modi, Uma Bharti, Kalyan Singh and Varun Gandhi (a
potent mix of Hindutva, backward, OBC, Youth, development) become critical. BJP
will go all out to polarize non-Muslim votes.
(5)
MP, Rajasthan, Delhi and Chhattisgarh election
later this year will make things more clear. A 4/4 BJP win will accelerate the
polarization process. Whereas a split of honors with Congress will accelerate
the infighting within BJP.
In our view, as things stand today, Congress is marginally
better placed to maneuver a majority in next general elections. A 4/4 verdict
in assemble election will definitely tilt the scale in BJP favor. In both the
cases expect a stable, lasting and better looking government in May 2014.
The third front will have to wait at least for another 5yrs,
may be 50yrs.
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