Vijay Kumar Gaba

Thursday, December 8, 2016

In search of solutions - 5

Thought for the day

"The measure of a man is what he does with power."

—Plato (Greek, 427-347BC)

Word for the day

Campanology (n)

The principles or art of making bells, bell ringing, etc.

Malice towards none

I knew this ultra Hindu Rashtra chauvinist from my college days. He later turned coat and became ultra secular and self-proclaimed Rahul Gandhi enthusiast.

Insiders tell me that for past many weeks he is sitting at back door of BJP office, waiting for permission to enter.

First random thought this morning

A number of experts have already started to rehearse the obituaries of globalization. From their writings I find that seemingly they have nothing against the globalization per se. They just want to be recognized as someone who first saw the end of it. The gratification of telling the common public "I said so" with a mean grim on your face, is so special.

Almost all of these experts see the Italy vote against proposed reforms as the second step towards the end of the project Europe, after Brexit. To them, inauguration of president trump; German, French, Italian elections; and beginning of the Brexit project next week will tick all the boxes pre-requisite for de-globalization of the global economy.

I beg to strongly disagree. I believe, we will just see a change in the format. The euphoria over the success of new format will provide the necessary escape velocity to take the world out of the current stalemate.

In search of solutions - 5

As suggested yesterday (see here), my solution to the political problems being faced by our country is predicated on our ability to build a political structure based on strong communities that live in harmony with nature and each other. Mutual trust, equality and sustainability are naturally at the core of my utopia.

I may now present the broader contours of my utopian socio-political structure. Some may want to draw prima facie similarities with the Communist State. But trust me it has nothing to do with a Leninist, Maoist or even Marxist state. My utopian structure does allow equal opportunity to all, but through "democratic election" and not by "arbitrary nomination". Moreover, commitment to community (communalism), culture (religion & traditions), and reverence to the Mother Nature (sustainability) are the core and non-negotiable elements for me, whereas in a communist state these are mostly redundant.

The primary governance unit — Local Council

(a) The primary unit of the country should be a democratic assembly of people in a town or village (Town or village council).

(b) Each town or village should directly elect a suitable number of representatives on a periodic basis. The winning candidate must win at least 51% of the eligible votes (not just the votes cast).

(c) Every adult citizen domiciled in that town/village for at least 10years, should have an equal opportunity to get elected for a term of 3years. No person shall be elected for more than 3 terms.

(d) Election expense of all candidates who could show support of at least 10% of eligible voters should be funded by the state. Other candidates may be required to fund their own expense. The spending limit may be fixed, say Rs10, per eligible voter in the constituency. All expenses should be paid through the designated State office only.

(e) The performance of each Local Council member should be evaluated on annual basis by an independent agency. A member failing to score the passing grade should be barred from politics for a period of 6yrs.

(f) The chairman of the Local Council should be elected by the members elected by the public, through a transparent secret ballot. The winning candidate must have a minimum of 51% of elected Council members supporting him/her. Each such Chairman should constitute an advisory board of local experts to advise him on governance matters. Members of the advisory board should not be paid any remuneration.

(g) Primary health, education, scientific research, art, culture, law & order are governed exclusively by the Local Council. All local civil disputes must be first resolved through mediation at the Council level only.

(h) All citizens are accorded a right to uniform education and primary health services, to be implemented by the Local Councils. Private, for profit, investment is allowed only in technical education, and specialized health services.

The secondary governance unit — District Council

(a) Town and villages with largely homogeneous demographic characteristics should be grouped in various Districts. Each District should have an independent governing council. All such District Councils should be empowered to impose & collect direct taxes; frame rules for engagement with other District Councils in the country, including exploitation & sharing of natural resources; movement of labor & capital etc.

(b) Local Councils falling within a District should elect from amongst their present and past members, who have served at least 2 complete terms, to the District Council.

(c) The number of members representing each Local Council should be in proportion to the population, area and social indicators of each such Local Council. Areas with stronger social indicators get to elect few extra members. This should promote healthy competition amongst Local Council to improve the social indicators.

(d) The district council should have a fixed term of 6years, with half the members retiring by rotation every 3years. No member should be elected to the District Council more than once.

(e) The performance of each district council member should be evaluated on annual basis by an independent agency. A member failing to score the passing grade should be barred from politics for a minimum period of 10yrs.

(f) The chairman of the District Council should be elected by the representatives elected by Local Councils, through a transparent secret ballot. The winning candidate must secure a minimum of 51% elected representatives members supporting him/her.

(g) Each such Chairman should constitute an advisory board of experts to advise him on governance matters. Members of the advisory board should not be paid any remuneration.

The third tier — National Council

(a) Each District Council should elect members to the National Council, in proportion to population, area and social indicators.

(b) Districts Councils should elect from their best performing past and present members who have served at least one complete term on the District Council.

(c) The Chairman of the National Council should be elected through a transparent secret ballot. The winning candidate must secure a minimum of 51% elected representatives members supporting him/her.

(d) Each such Chairman should constitute an advisory board of experts to advise him on governance matters. Members of the advisory board should not be paid any remuneration.

(e) The National Council shall deal only with common matters of national interests, such as foreign relations, national defense, etc.

Next I shall present outline of an economic model to go with this.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

In search of solutions - 4

Thought for the day

"No one knows whether death, which people fear to be the greatest evil, may be the greatest good."

—Plato (Greek, 427-347BC)

Word for the day

Quondam (adj)

Former;

Onetime, e.g., his quondam partner.

Malice towards none

How death ends animosity, enmity, hatred, rancor, acrimony, everything?

Or does it?

First random thought this morning

After Brexit & Trump now the dreaded Italy 'No' vote also has not impacted the global markets as most experts would have expected.

What could be the reason?

(a) Markets are too complacent, and would eventually explode sometime in 2017.

(b) Experts are completely out of synch with the popular mood on the street.

In search of solutions - 4

“It is Swaraj when we learn to rule ourselves. It is, therefore, in the palm of our hands. But such Swaraj has to be experienced, by each one for himself. One drowning man will never save another.”

“I believe that you want the millions of India to be happy, not that you want the reins of government in your hands. If that be so, we have to consider only one thing: how can the millions obtain self-rule?”

[M. K. Gandhi, Hind Swaraj]

Over the past seven decades, the political structure has taken the shape of a pyramid form, whereas the social structure in the country continues to be in a ladder form.

In a pyramid structure, the space at the top is limited. The people are continuously at struggle with each other. Those who have reached the top fight with each other to stay there. They have also to fight with a multitude of other people who are trying to reach the summit. To survive at the top, you need to push all others down. The concepts such as mutual trust, harmony, cooperation, equality, justice, etc. have little relevance under this structure. The laws of the jungle prevail - the strongest survives and his interest is accepted as justice. This intense and consistent struggle to survive, seldom allows the leaders at the top to bother about the people below.

To the contrary, traditionally the Indian society is structured in ladder form. The ultimate goal is well defined as salvation from this material world. The space at the top is unlimited. There is no competition. Mostly people wish that the person ahead of them moves higher faster so that they could also move up. It's like a queue in the temple. You want the people ahead of you to move forward faster, so that you could also get to worship the deity sooner. No one pulls anyone back. Everyone pushes the others forward.

I have been highlighting since ever that one of the best things India has got in past 150years is Mahatma Gandhi. And the most unfortunate thing to occur since independence from British rule in 1947 is brazen desertion of Mahatma Gandhi by Indian politicians. To my mind hanging his pictures in government offices or currency notes and naming roads after him is even more contemptuous given the blatant irreverence for his principles and ideas.

Mahatma Gandhi understood the Indian society as no other Indian leader in modern India did. Based on his understanding, he suggested the model of Swaraj (self rule). Trust me, the Gandhian idea of Swaraj could have been proposed only by a person like him who had experienced India so intimately.

(It may be pertinent to recall here that in my view Arvind Kejriwal’s idea of Swaraj is at best a perversion of Gandhian concept of Swaraj and deserves to be rejected with due contempt.)

M. P. Mathai explains the Gandhian idea of Swaraj very succinctly as follows:

“Although the word swaraj means self-rule, Gandhi gave it the content of an integral revolution that encompasses all spheres of life. “At the individual level swaraj is vitally connected with the capacity for dispassionate self-assessment, ceaseless self-purification and growing swadeshi or self-reliance".

Politically swaraj is self-government and not good government (for Gandhi, good government is no substitute for self-government) and it means continuous effort to be independent of government control, whether it is foreign government or whether it is national.

In the other words, it is sovereignty of the people based on pure moral authority. Economically, poorna swaraj means full economic freedom for the toiling millions. For Gandhi, swaraj of the people meant the sum total of the swaraj (self-rule) of individuals and so he clarified that for him swaraj meant freedom for the meanest of his countrymen. And in its fullest sense, swaraj is much more than freedom from all restraints, it is self-rule, self-restraint and could be equated with moksha or salvation."

In one of his letters to Leo Tolstoy Gandhi explained Swaraj as follows:

“Independence begins at the bottom. A society must be built in which every village has to be self sustained and capable of managing its own affairs. It will be trained and prepared to perish in the attempt to defend itself against any onslaught from without. This does not exclude dependence on and willing help from neighbors or from the world. It will be a free and voluntary play of mutual forces. In this structure composed of innumerable villages, there will be ever widening, never ascending circles.

Growth will not be a pyramid with the apex sustained by the bottom. But it will be an oceanic circle whose center will be the individual. Therefore the outermost circumference will not wield power to crush the inner circle but will give strength to all within and derive its own strength from it.” (as cited in Wikipedia)

Thus, the individual is the sole basis of Swaraj. Swaraj is unfathomable without dispassionate self-assessment, ceaseless self-purification and growing self-reliance at individual level; and sovereignty of moral authority, as against the political authority.

Swaraj encompasses fiercely competitive free market, moral duty to be free, fearless, truthful, fair, just, self reliant, nationalist, and religious.

This Swaraj, many argue is Utopian in current context. Some argue that it is desirable but we have traveled too far down the road we took post independence from British rule; and it is too late to go back and begin again.

In my view, this defeatist and fatigued attitude is unwarranted. What we need is a zero base discussion on the subject and solutions will emerge that would lead us to the desired goal of making 1.3bn people free, fearless and happy. An incremental approach howsoever sincere might not yield the desired results.

With this in mind I dream of a free, fearless and fair socio-political organization for the country."

During my various visits to the hinterlands of the country, I found strong evidence of numerous democratic assemblies within various communities and localities. From my experience I know for certain that most Indians not only feel comfortable working with the members of their own community, but are usually most productive when operating within the network of their “Own people” or "Community".

This “communalism” is arguably a key strength of Indian society. Therefore, in my view, the social ecology model suggested by author and activist Murray Bookchin which advocates a “stateless, classless, decentralized society consisting of a network of directly democratic citizens' assemblies in individual communities/cities organized in a confederal fashion” appears relevant in our context.

Unfortunately, our politicians and social activists have dissipated the term “communalism” to mean intolerance and hatred towards other religions, especially amongst Hindus and Muslims. This debauchery has introduced many distortions in our socio-political order. In my view this needs to be corrected as pre-condition before we begin working on any course correction.

Religious fundamentalism (which is usually referred to as “communalism” in Indian context), is mostly a political problem in India. A secular political system, as envisaged by Mahatma Gandhi and incorporated in the soul of our Constitution, would automatically weaken these miniscule elements leading to their eventual extinction.

My solution to the India's political problem is thus predicated on our ability to build and nurture strong communities that live in harmony with the nature.

Tomorrow I shall present the broad contours of the political structure that in my view can rid our country of nepotism; conflicts between various interest groups that undermine the national interest; mediocrity at the expense of meritocracy; promote communal harmony, equity, and cater to the aspirations of all the people.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

In search of solutions - 3

Thought for the day

"Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws."

—Plato (Greek, 427-347BC)

Word for the day

Bruit (v)

To voice abroad; rumor. Used chiefly in the passive and often followed by about, e.g., The report was bruited through the village.

Malice towards none

In religious terms - when a person is taken as dead?

First random thought this morning

After UK and US, the popular sentiment in Italy has also rejected the new normal. People there have also voted for returning back to the conventional means. It is to be seen whether German and French voters will also reject the new normal and vote for the return to conventional means of socio-economic subsistence.

I am not sure whether the return to roots could be selective. The pre-globalized world was after all imperialist, polarized and always at war.

The positives could be that most modern day scientific inventions were made in those days. The new world order has perhaps seen slowest growth in the field of pure sciences and literature. The best art, literature and philosophical works were also produced in pre-globalization era.

In search of solutions - 3

Talking about the political problems in the country, I feel at country level the regional socio-economic disparities and cultural differences are well highlighted. These are indeed popular ingredient of any political and cultural marketing campaign in India. However, the awareness about the differences that exist at the state level is relatively poor.

To a person sitting in Mumbai, Bangaluru, Chennai or Hyderabad, the state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) may not mean much more than – Taj Mahal, Varanasi, Lucknow, Kebab, taxi drivers and construction labor. Very few residents of the western and southern states appreciate that UP is as diverse as India itself. Various regions of the state, i.e., Awadh, Brij, Rohillkhand, Bundelkhand, Purvanchal, and Doab, have distinctly identifiable history, food, dialect, customs, deities, and problems.

People from Bundelkhand and Doab regions in particular have been agitating for a different political identity for themselves since long. The regions also differ in terms of caste, community, and religions dynamics. Differences in terms of weather, water and electricity availability, crop patterns, flood-draught cycle, political influence, urbanization, physical infrastructure, income disparities and other social indicators are also rather stark. Same holds true for many other states also.

Unjustifiable socio-economic disparities amongst various states and regions within states, materially different socio-economic status of various castes and communities in different states, has frequently led to demands and agitations for new administrative units (states and districts).

The legislatures have been mostly unsuccessful in developing and adopting a consensus framework for federal structure of the country (Though some attempts like Sarkaria Commission have been made). Certainly there has been a marked improvement in state-center relationship in past 25years, but this could be more due to political compulsions rather than any structural change. This has been the period when regional parties have played critical role in government formation at the center. The strains in center-state relations have reemerged as soon as a single party government got installed at center in 2014.

It would therefore not be unreasonable to say that the post independence political organization of the country designed primarily on lingual basis may no longer be relevant in the current context.

Moreover, the tradition to appoint by nomination rather than purely on the basis of election has killed meritocracy in politics and promoted inequality.

The political problem therefore is to develop a political organization that fully assimilates the aspirations of the people, addresses specific local problems, promotes mutual trust & harmony, bars incompetence and knavery from public office, and insures that the best is selected and prepared to rule for the common good.

For my seemingly Utopian solution to this problem of political organization - see this space on tomorrow.

Friday, December 2, 2016

In search of solutions - 2

Thought for the day

"We still think of a powerful man as a born leader and a powerful woman as an anomaly."

—Margaret Atwood (Canadian, 1939)

Word for the day

Laicism (n)

The secular, control of political and social institutions in a society (distinguished from clericalism).

Malice towards none

Could I be a nationalist and still not support BJP?

First random thought this morning

The life these days is much easier. I am saved from the trouble of taking a host of supposedly personal decision for myself.

The government, judiciary and society (khap) are deciding for me what should (or should not) I eat, drink, wear, sing, listen, watch, study, read, show, do, own, keep, give, drive, etc.

I am eagerly waiting for rules/guidelines that will decide my sleeping & waking time!

In search of solutions - 2

“For indeed any city, however small, is in fact divided into two, one the city of the poor, the other of the rich; these are at war with one another; and in either there are many smaller divisions, and you would be altogether beside the mark if you treated them all as a single State.”

(Book IV, The Republic, Plato)

A few months back, a group of self claimed righteous people started a new political movement. These people had been part of the India against corruption movement of Anna Hazare and its offshoot Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The leaders of the movement mentioned that to them dynastic politics, women safety, corruption in public offices, electoral malpractices, inequality and social injustice are the key problems that India faces today.

I liked their ideas & intent and expressed my desire to join them, provided they tell me how they propose to solve these problems. For last two months I am waiting to hear from them.

I am not signaling anyone out here. I am just highlighting that in an environment where everyone is just talking about problems, we need people to start discussing solutions.

The other point I want to highlight is that most of the problems people are highlighting may just be the symptom of the problem and not the problem in itself. Beware that in finding solutions, we would need to focus on the underlying problems and not merely the manifest symptoms.

For example, in an electoral democracy son of a politicians contesting and winning election should not be a problem. After all it is the people who have elected the son to a public office, just like anyone else. Especially when no one is complaining about poll rigging etc.

The true problem here is the unequal opportunity. And this problem is not limited to politics but to every sphere of the life - education, law, medicine, art, business, religion, etc.

All those complaining about the dynasty in politics fail to provide a solution because they are scared of addressing the underlying problem, which pervades deep into our personal and social lives.

To my mind therefore it is critical to define the underlying problem before any attempt is made to find the possible solutions.

I now begin by stating my understanding of the political problem.

The political problem in India is to develop a political organization that fully assimilates the aspirations of the people, addresses specific local problems, promotes mutual trust & harmony, bars incompetence and knavery from public office, and insures that the best is selected and prepared to rule for the common good.

...to continue on Tuesday

Thursday, December 1, 2016

In search of solutions

Thought for the day

"Little girls are cute and small only to adults. To one another they are not cute. They are life-sized."

—Margaret Atwood (Canadian, 1939)

Word for the day

Quinquennium (n)

A period of five years.

Malice towards none

All rhetoric, no substance - new normal in public discourse.

First random thought this morning

SC wants all cinema goers to listen to the national anthem by standing in honor - Great. A noble thought.

Why not begin all court hearings, schools, offices, theaters, comedy shows, police stations, rail journeys, with the national anthem?

What if a foreigner wants to watch movie in an Indian theater but does not want to stand in honor of our national anthem?

How this diktat is different from "Agar Bharat meni rehna hoga toh Bharat Mata ki Jai kehna hoga".

In search of solutions

As indicated yesterday (see here), these days I find that a large majority of people, especially the people who matter the most, are talking only about the problems.

To make the matter even worse, the public discourse has become mostly rhetorical with little substance in it.

Only a few 'Radicals" have the courage to offer solutions. The elites naturally have problem in assimilating these solution as these do not conform to the conventional knowledge. On the other hand the commoners, distraught and disillusioned as they are, are enthusiastic and willing to experiment with these radical alternatives even if not sure where they will be led to.

In my view, this march towards the unknown with inadequate luggage, is the most worrisome aspect of the present day life. The unpredictability, mistrust that has permeated the system is also adding to the misery.

Empirically, such experiments with radicalism have shown diverse results and as such no pattern is available. For example — Hitler and Stalin failed miserably. Deng Xiaoping and Lee Kuan Yew are widely believed to be remarkable success stories. Castro, Mao, Nixon and Regan are still debatable. Back home, Sanjay Gandhi and V. P. Singh are mostly considered failures, while Atal Bihari Vajpayee and PV Narasimha Rao are celebrated for breaking the status quo.

In past five odd years, I have made multiple attempts to understand the problems that have been ailing the Indian society and therefore the Indian economy. From the experience I gained through wandering across the vast landscapes and meeting thousands of common people in hinterlands, I can claim to have earned some understanding of the problems, I mean rhetoric apart. I have in fact been sharing my understanding with the readers.

Moreover, since I enjoy the advantage of not being a formal student of economics, statistics, finance, politics or sociology - I can certainly take liberty to assess the problems from a common sense viewpoint and devise solutions that do not necessarily conform to the established conventions.

Since I have written on these issues frequently and consistently, my old readers may find the presentation that follows in next few days, repetitive. However, I still find this exercise worth doing as it reinforces my commitment and faith in the great India story.

In next few days I shall discuss the social, political, and economic problems afflicting my country. I would also take the liberty to offer some solutions that I believe could solve many of these problems.

Remember, this is to initiate a larger debate on the desirable social, political and economic order for the country. I have been accumulating thoughts on this for past five years. The readers may pick whatever they like, debate it, improve it and introduce back in the stream. It is important to clarify that I do not claim any proprietary rights over these thoughts. I claim to have liberally and unabashedly plagiarized the thoughts of various common and eminent people; published wisdom; and my own experiences.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

In support of "The Radicals"

Thought for the day

"Some people mistakenly think nature is very nice and benevolent and never betrays"

—Margaret Atwood (Canadian, 1939)

Word for the day

Toggery (n)

Clothes; garments; togs.

A clothing shop.

Malice towards none

BJP and SAD should contest forthcoming Punjab elections separately.

If need be, they could come together post election, like BJP and SS did in Maharashtra.

First random thought this morning

I am unable to find an appropriate expression to describe the present state of affair of the Congress Party.

It's got to be more than a tragicomedy, when the usually sober people like Dr. Manmohan Singh and P. Chidambaram start talking like the usually indecorous people like Digvijay Singh and Rahul Gandhi.

In support of "The Radicals"

Try and imagine a situation where a post graduate class of literature is given a question paper of quantum physics to solve within stipulated three hours with no outside help.

It would be fair to assume that most students will leave the answer sheets blank leave the examination hall, distraught.

Some may try to test their ingenuity and offer literary solutions to the complicated problems, still hoping to score zilch.

A few would however contend that being students of literature, they are naturally the only genius around. These few would offer detailed literary explanations which may not make any sense to the conventional students of physics or literature; and still insist that the solutions offered by them are the best. Hoping to pass with distinction, they might also take this opportunity to ridicule the students of physics and celebrate their superiority. This small group is popularly referred to as "The Radicals".

I am inclined to view the present day global economy as the examination hall described above. Almost none of the participants (economists, bankers, administrators, politicians, regulators, traders, borrowers, lenders, consumers, producers, et. al.) seems to have any clue.

Absolutely clueless most may be about solutions, they can apparently read the problems. And that is precisely what they are doing day and night - reading the problem; sometime in hush-hush sounds; sometimes raising the decibel to the maximum; sometimes in the secret chambers and sometimes in front of the mammoth crowds; sometimes with audacity and sometimes with jitters in their spine.

The Radicals are the one who are offering solutions. Totally unassimilated, these solutions naturally do not appeal to the conventional mindset.

These solutions are therefore mostly liable to be rejected as hazardous, for these seek to rattle the status quo.

These are also condemned to the derision of the conformist and purist, as they approach the problem from a completely unexpected tangent.

Admittedly, these solutions may very well fail to solve any of the problems, global economy is facing today; or even exacerbate the problems. Although this cannot be known today. As Shakespeare would tell us “There are many events in the womb of time which will be delivered.”

What matters today is to make an effort, howsoever radical or unassimilated it may seem. That is what is needed to administer a sense of calm on the stressed nerves of the common people, who are finding the current conditions unfairly severe to them.

On my part, therefore, I fully appreciate what the Radicals like Trump and Modi are doing or may try to do. I would like to wait what the time delivers.

In next few days, I would like to share my thoughts on the problems India is facing and today, and what could be the solutions to these problems.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

I am done and over with

Thought for the day

" For years I wanted to be older, and now I am."

—Margaret Atwood (Canadian, 1939)

Word for the day

Soliloquize (v)

talk to oneself.

Malice towards none

Attended a marriage last night.

I am sure a lot of cash is being hoarded by the families who have marriage in family.

All this money will flock the markets as marriage season ends in December.

First random thought this morning

BJP, RSS et. al. want to impose their idea of good governance on the country, considering it to be inarguably the best alternative. Some may find it against the basic tenets of parliamentary democracy. But I have no problem with this. If it is good for the country, it is good. Regardless of everything and anything.

My problem is that they want to experiment with their ideas at my expense.

BJP & RSS canteens are neither Swach (clean) nor cashless. BJP and RSS have not issued any whip or request to its members and elected representatives to not to deal in cash any further; donate 2hrs a week for cleaning of public places; not to attend or arrange lavish marriages or birthday parties; I visited 7 Patanjli stores in Delhi yesterday. None accepts payment otherwise than cash.

I am done and over with

In past three weeks millions of reams of papers; millions of terabytes of data space; over a billions man-hours of productive time; about 100hrs of parliament time; and thousands of hours of administrative & banking time has been spent (some may want to call it "wasted") discussing, debating, protesting, managing and suffering the government's move to abolish old high denomination currency notes and replace these with new currency.

I have also spent at least 70hours, studying, analyzing, explaining, arguing, criticizing, defending and writing about the measure in past three weeks. I feel it's high time that I get past this whole issue and focus on the road ahead. I would therefore like to close the discussion with the following summary of my final understanding, view and opinion on the issue. I totally concede that there is huge scope for disagreement. But I am in no mood to take this discussion any further. All comments are totally unwelcome.

· I firmly believe that the latest exercise of the government and RBI does not qualify to be demonetization in any measure. It's simply replacement of currency notes. I am reasonably confident that by the times cows come home, Banks and RBI would have received more old currency notes than the RBI balance sheet showed as outstanding at 8:30PM on 8 November 2016. Other things remaining the same, the note printing press can rest for next 2-3yrs, after working overtime for two months.

· The exercise may lead to direct transfer of some INR50-70K crore to the lower strata in the socio-economic pyramid of the country. This combined with the additional cash flows to the middle of pyramid through 7th Pay commission and OROP payouts, and better Kharif realizations for farmers, there are sufficient reason to believe that the consumption slowdown due to disruptions since 9 November, may get fully neutralized by 1QFY18. No surprises if the consumption surprises on higher side as the propensity to consume is much higher in the "receiver" lower half of the pyramid as compared to the "transferor" upper half of the socio-economic pyramid. The positive sentiment amongst the common public shall also aid consumption. The GDP of FY17 may be lower by 30-40bps but with upside risk. FY18 likely +8%.

· Political rhetoric apart, the time spent in ATM/Bank Qs does not matter much in terms of productivity loss. Most people standing there are either employed in disguise or underemployed.

· This exercise will prepare a solid ground for smooth implementation of GST in FY18 or FY19. Most small businesses will get tech savvy and less resistant to "white" payments.

· The plastic money may grow at least by 50% in next 2-3 years, leading to higher velocity of money (sustainable higher liquidity) and lower cost for banks. Lending rates could fall on sustainable basis, adding materially to economic growth.

· This exercise and reactions thereafter have introduced significant unpredictability in the system. This shall logically lead to break in status quo and coax higher compliance. Property and gold businesses will change structurally and for the good.

You may also like to read the following:

· Cashless in Great Mall of India

· Be careful in what you wish for

· Worrisome & encouraging

· Mistrust & Unpredictability

· Sir, I beg to differ

· Don't underestimate the power of a common man

· Cash is colorless, it takes color of the hand that is holding it

· Cash and Real Estate

· Good times for realty market around the corner