Do it yourself

The Reserve Bank of India has increased the policy repo rate six times in the current financial year (FY23). It has continued to withdraw excess liquidity from the financial system through various means and has mostly maintained a hawkish demeanor, insofar as the policy outlook is concerned. In spite of (i) aggressive rate hikes; (ii) withdrawal of excess liquidity from the system; (iii) sharp correction in global commodity prices (especially energy); (iv) restoration of supply chains that had got damaged during pandemic resulting in severe supply shortage of key raw materials and inputs; (vi) three consecutive normal monsoon seasons yielding bumper crops; and (vi) slow growth – CPI inflation has persisted above the RBI tolerance range of 4 to 6% and credit growth has accelerated and remained strong. Obviously there is a disconnect somewhere. Even one third of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI do not agree with the policy stance of the RBI and have voted against...

Assumptions Have Consequences (John Mauldin) Remember National Lampoon’s Vacation? It was a 1983 comedy film in which suburban dad Clark Griswold (Chevy Chase) takes his family on a cross-country road trip to the fabled Walley World amusement park. Clark made one critical mistake, though. He assumed Walley World would be open and waiting for them. This was to be the family’s reward for a long, stressful journey. His assumption was...incorrect. Many have noted the word’s first three letters hint at how assumption can make an ass out of u and me. Yet we must assume some things or life becomes impossible. Assumptions can be wise or unwise. They can be unduly optimistic or excessively pessimistic. Slightly different assumptions can produce giant changes in predicted outcomes. Assumptions are necessary but we shouldn’t make them lightly, nor forget we are making them. This is important because assumptions abound in our assessments of the economy and markets. They tend to sort of f...

  It was spring of the year 2022. The news flow was worsening every day. The Russia-Ukraine conflict was dominating the global media headlines. NATO-Russia acrimony was at its worst since the cold war era. China committed to a zero Covid policy and implemented strict mobility restrictions, further impacting the global supply chains. Inflation was beginning to spike and most central bankers were ready to embark on an accelerated tightening cycle. Back home, the enthusiasm created by a path breaking budget had not survived even for a whole week. Issues like macroeconomics (growth, inflation, current account, yields, INR), geopolitics (Russia-Ukraine), politics (state elections) and persistent selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) was dominating the market narrative. The trends in corporate earnings also were not helpful to the cause of market participants. By early March 2022, the benchmark indices had fallen substantially from their highest levels recorded till then, between...

In the past one year, inflation has been one of the primary concerns for most countries across the globe. Rising prices of food and energy in particular have materially impacted the lives of common people on all continents. The central bankers of most major economies have hiked policy rates in the past one year to control inflation. In the current year 2023 so far, 13 major central bankers have taken policy action(s) and all of these actions have been hike in policy rates. However, in recent weeks inflation has shown some tendency of cooling down. It is difficult to assess how much of this cooling down is due to tighter monetary conditions; and how much could be attributed to other factors like restoration of supply chains that were broken during the pandemic and warmer winters resulting in lower energy demand in the northern hemisphere, etc. Nonetheless, some central bankers have adjusted the pace of tightening to smaller hikes. Most of them, though remain...

It has been over five year since I visited a local garbage dump in West Delhi. The visit was a revelation in many respects. A casual discussion with the rag pickers exploring the heaps of stinking garbage to collect pieces of paper, plastic and metal, was quite enlightening. Out of seven people diligently scanning the dump, three were children under the age of 14, including one girl, and three were youth in the age bracket of 19-27. On being asked why they chose to do this menial, risky (health wise) and stinking job, when they have relatively decent options like pulling a cycle rickshaw or even driving an e-rickshaw, working at a nearby auto garage, cleaning cars in nearby housing societies etc., the youth politely answered, "We are doing this job for past 12-15yrs. How could we change it now." On prodding further, one of them admitted that many of their peers live on hope that "Someday they will find treasure in the garbage. More years you have put into the job, the gr...

  Deposit Rates Grow Faster than Lending Rates in December 2022 (CARE Ratings) In December 2022, the rate of increase flipped with deposit rates growing faster than lending rates on fresh loans. ·          The weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans of SCBs increased by 02 bps (basis points) from 8.86% in November 2022 to 8.88% in December 2022. ·          The weighted average domestic term deposit rate (WADTDR) on outstanding rupee term deposits of SCBs increased by 16 bps from 5.62% in November 2022 to 5.78% in December 2022. ·          Private Sector Banks (PVB) and Public Sector Banks (PSB) have maintained high spreads between lending and deposit rates, with PVBs seeing higher spreads, as banks raised rates amid RBI’s tightening moves. Rate hikes and subsequent faster resets in lending rates vs. deposit rates have led to NIM expansion...

  The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor declared victory for its policy stance in unambiguous terms while presenting the latest monetary policy statement. He stated, as a result of various policy measures taken by RBI since April 2022 “the real policy rate has been nudged into positive territory; the banking system has moved out of the   Chakravyuh   of excess liquidity; inflation is moderating; and economic growth continues to be resilient”. MPC remains predictive – 25bps hike with stance unchanged The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its meeting held over the past three days decided to hike the policy repo rate by 25bps to 6.75%. The decision was taken by a majority vote with four members voting in favour and two members voting against the hike. The MPC also maintained its monetary policy stance of withdrawal of accommodation with a split vote of 4 to 2. The decision of the MPC and voting pattern is mostly in line with the consens...

Total apathy of common Indians towards intellectual property rights (IPR) of the originators is appalling. Use of pirated software, photocopied books, and spurious books sold on traffic signals and footpaths, unauthorized copies of branded clothes etc. is unapologetically common. Propriety and ethics are not taught in schools. It is common to see parents encouraging their wards to buy the “cheaper” alternative regardless of its legality and authenticity. Many cities have infamous “markets” for pirated software and duplicate merchandise. The disdain shown by a large majority of the population could easily be listed as one of the major inhibitors of faster growth in India. It discourages innovation at the domestic level; motivates the innovators to immigrate to foreign shores and register their innovations there; and adversely impacts the transfer of critical technology by the foreign innovators to their Indian collaborators and entities. If you are living in Delhi NCR region and tra...