Do it yourself

 The latest macro data indicates that the Indian economy may be standing at an inflection point. It may have survived a major accident in the form of Covid19 pandemic; luckily scraping through with couple of broken bones and some bruises. The economy is recuperating well and is perhaps ready for discharge from the hospital. Of course, for next few quarters the economy may still need to use the crutches of government spending, before it could walk on its own. The amount of bill for the recovery from pandemic would mostly be known in next six months. We would also know how the cost of pandemic would be shared between various stakeholders, i.e., government, citizens and businesses. Post pandemic, the challenges before the government are multifold; and so are the opportunities. A successful resolution of these challenges could trigger a virtuous cycle of growth and catapult the economy to the higher orbit. A failure may not be an option, as it could cause a disaster of unfathomable...

  A random walk through the settlement statistic of NSE for past two decade and half decades provided some interesting insights into the market evolution over past two decades. It is interesting to note the things that have changed and the things that have not. Regardless, it is comforting to note that Indian markets are maturing well and the systemic risk appears to have subsided materially. The best part was to observe that our markets have become more democratic with deeper and wider participation. (All data is sourced from www.nseindia.com) Indian market maturing well The latest bull market has shown that the Indian investors and traders are maturing very well. The tendency to recklessly over trade that was witnessed during dotcom bubble, and to some lesser extent during credit bubble of 2007-08, seems to have been reigned well now. To give it some perspective, at the peak of the dotcom bubble, the average daily turnover of NSE was close to 0.8% of the total market capi...

 If we consider the sector wise performance since April 2020, there exists huge disparity between various sectors. While Metals and IT have remained massive outperformers; the consumer (FMCG & media) and PSU Banks have been lagging far behind. Auto, Services, Pharma, and Infrastructure have performed mostly in line with the benchmark Nifty. Pharma and Infrastructure performance is little surprising as both the sectors had major catalysts in Covid19 and massive government spending on infra building to stimulate the sagging economy. But what is most surprising is the lack of investors’ interest in PSU banks. Notwithstanding, numerous research upgrades of SBI; government beginning the process of disinvestment in couple of PSBs; improved profitability shown by all the PSBs in FY21; and a market heavyweight buying material stake into Canara Bank; and many private sector lenders faring much worse than their Public sector peers - PSU Banks have failed to impress the traders and in...

 Historic performance of a banker In the summer of 2007, at the peak of sub-prime bubble, a top executive at a global bank presented to the Board that the bank has expanded its footprints to 11 new frontier markets and materially augmented the operations in the 13 emerging markets by enhancing the workforce by 19% in the past one year, a record in the 90year history of the bank. The board applauded the presentation and approved the 100% hike in the annual bonus for the top executive. In the spring of 2009, the same manager made another enthusiastic presentation to the management. He said, “the management has been able to cut the cost by a whopping 28% to meet the challenges of global financial crisis. We have optimized our operations by exiting the non-profitable operations in 17 frontier market and 2 merging markets, and materially curtailing the operations in 9 emerging markets, to achieve 20% cut in the total workforce in the past one year; a record in the 92years history of...

 If a geologist tells you, “the Himalayan Glaciers are melting fast and there will be no water in the Ganges in year 2050”; what would be your instant reaction? Will you— ·          Rush to store water in buckets? ·          Begin to explore places which are not dependent on the Himalayan Rivers for their water needs, for relocation in next few years? ·          Commit yourself to the environment conservation by adopting 3R (Reduce, Reuse and Recycle) as part of your life so that the green house emission is reduced, global warming is reversed and the geologists are proven wrong? ·          Dismiss the information provided by the Geologist as fait accompli and get on with your routine life? I may say with confidence that various people will react differently to this information, but none will rush to store water in...

Once there was a tyrant feudal lord. He would oppress his subjects using all the means within his power. He would often torture them; force them serve to his cause; plunder their assets; abuse their women and children; violate their traditions and culture and exploit their lands to his benefit. Once he learnt that one of the traders in his village posses large amount of gold and precious stones. He immediately summoned the trader to his palace and ordered him to surrender all his wealth to his Lordship. The trader refused to obey the orders arguing that the wealth is the reward of the hard work done by him and his ancestors, and only his children have the right to own it. The Lord got furious and ordered his muscleman to beat the trader black & blue and lock him in the basement. The musclemen would beat the trader everyday but he would not tell them where his treasure is hidden. To make sure that the trader does not die before disclosing the location of his treasure, the Lord's...