Do it yourself

Continuing from yesterday ( Two short stories, and a big one ) As a common Indian household, I face three key issues in my daily life. From my discussions with several other common people, and observations during my travels across the country, I understand that I may not be alone in facing these issues. In fact, a large number of common households may be facing similar issues. These issues are – 1.     A conspicuous lack of the “service orientation” in our public servants. A large proportion of public servants usually act like entitled feudal lords and treat the common people as their underprivileged subjects. Even where a public servant is not extracting a fee (bribe) for his/her services, he/she ensures that the recipient of service feels deeply obliged to get, which was his/her right in the first place. The elected representatives put on hoarding (many times at public expense) to thank themselves for basic services done by civic authorities (like cleaning a choked...

Fruit salad and helmets It was summer of 1992. The weathermen had announced the arrival of monsoon, a few days ago; though it had not rained even once. Weather was hot and humid – just the way mosquitoes, houseflies, fungi, and a variety of bacteria & viruses love it. People, especially children, were suffering from infections. The city administration was daily issuing half/full page newspaper advertisements cautioning people against disease outbreak, and guiding them to maintain personal hygiene, stay hydrated and avoid consuming street food, especially cut fruits. Several billboards and posters were also put up across the city. My office was located on Indraprastha Marg, one of the busiest streets in the city, just opposite an imposing building housing the Delhi Police headquarter (DPHQ). Around 100 meters away from DPHQ, there was a major bus stop (ITO). Several fruit chat vendors would sell cut fruits & vegetables like watermelon, pineapple, cucumber, coconut, etc. Th...

One of the biggest hurdles to doing business in India today is not infrastructure, taxation, or talent—it is policy unpredictability. The Economic Survey 2019 reminded us that India’s own thinkers since ancient times tied prosperity to rule of law ( Dandaniti ) and protection against arbitrary rule ( Matsyanyaya ). In modern terms, this means clear rules, consistent enforcement, and contract sanctity. Investors, entrepreneurs, and global partners all look for this. Yet, over the past decade, India has repeatedly seen sudden policy shocks. These not only create losses for businesses and investors but also erode long-term trust between government and enterprise. Case Studies of Policy Uncertainty Maggi Ban (2015) FSSAI imposed a sudden nationwide ban on Nestlé’s Maggi noodles citing excessive lead/MSG. Months later, the Bombay High Court lifted the ban after independent tests cleared the product. ·          Nestlé lost sales and investor...

The US administration has imposed a 25% penal tariff on the goods imported from India, with few exceptions. The reason cited for this penal action is continued import of crude oil from Russia by the Indian refiners, despite the US administration insistence that sales proceeds from such oil sales are being used to finance the Russian war on Ukraine. These tariffs are over and above the MFN tariffs prevalent prior to 7th August 2025, and 25% reciprocal imposed with effect from 07th August. Considering the exemption for several items that are critical for the US supply chains, e.g., mobile phones, certain metal items, pharma, semiconductors, energy etc., the effective tariff rates on Indian exports to the US are estimated to be ~33%. India has termed this penal action “unfair, unjustified, unreasonable”. The public stance of the Indian government is that buying Russian oil is critical for our energy security, and it is our prerogative to decide from where to buy.  Considering the curr...

Politicians have always been famous for manipulating the truth or lying by telling the truth. For example, consider this. A journalist asked a minister, “Have you provided employment to the youth as per your election promise?” The minister answered, “we have given employment letters to 70000 youth last week”. Here the minister is telling the truth (70000 employment letters given), without answering the question. He did not even clarify whether these 70000 youth have actually been given jobs or just been promised a job in the future. In this way, the minister lied by telling a plain truth- manipulated it to suit his convenience. A similar pattern often plays out in economic statistics, where data may be technically correct but presented in a way that conveys a misleadingly optimistic picture. The blockbuster GDP data for 1QFY26, released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) last Friday, prima facie appears an example of manipulated truth . According to NSO, the Indian economy ...

  The Reserve Bank of India adopted its current monetary policy framework in August 2016, under the governorship of Dr. Raghuram Rajan. This marked a major shift in the monetary policy formulation process in India. In the pre-independence era, the function of monetary policy was mainly to maintain the sterling parity, with the exchange rate being the nominal anchor of monetary policy. Liquidity was regulated through open market operations (OMOs), bank rate and cash reserve ratio (CRR). After independence, India adopted the planning model of development, loosely based on the USSR model. The role of RBI monetary policy in this model was mostly to regulate credit availability, employing OMOs, set bank rate and reserve requirement in congruence with the planning objectives and development needs of the country. The monetary policy framework witnessed a major shift between from mid 1980s to late 1990s. In 1985, on the recommendation of the (Dr. Sukhamoy) Chakravarty Committee, a new mone...

  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his final keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 22, 2025, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The speech focused on the U.S. economic outlook and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy framework review, addressing the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. In his speech, Powell noted the U.S. economy’s resilience despite challenges from President Donald Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target (PCE index at 2.6% in June 2025), driven partly by tariff-related price increases, while the labor market shows signs of weakening, with July’s job growth at 73,000, well below expectations, and downward revisions of 258,000 jobs for May and June. Monetary Policy Outlook: Powell signaled openness to interest rate c uts at the September 16-17, 2025, FOMC meeting, admitting that monetary policy is in restrictive territory, and the base...

2025 is proving to be an interesting year for traders in the Indian stocks. The traders have faced multiple challenges in the past eight months; and had some good opportunities to make extraordinary profit. More notably— What made traders’ life tough ·          The external environment has been volatile. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East had escalated materially. The war between Russia and Ukraine continued and developed a new trade/tariff angle for the Indian economy. India engaged with Pakistan in a small but intense war that could have serious long-term repercussions for regional geopolitics. These events caused sharp volatility in the market, causing exacerbated margin calls and losses to the traders. ·          The US imposed reciprocal (25%) and penal (25%) tariffs on imports of merchandise from India, making Indian exports to the US significantly uncompetitive in comparison to the tradit...

In July 2025, India’s consumer price inflation (CPI) hit an eight year low of 1.55% (yoy). Several factors contributed to the fall in inflation, including, a favorable base effect, lower fuel inflation, and decline in beverages and food prices. Since the inflation is much below the RBI tolerance range of 4% to 6%, it has excited the market participants about another rate cut at the RBI’s October 2025 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The prospect of lower Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates from November 2025, which could keep inflation subdued further, has added fuel to the speculations. However, notwithstanding what RBI does at its next meeting, we need to answer a fundamental question - Is this low inflation—or even disinflation—a desirable thing for a growing economy like India? Positive side of low inflation Boost to Consumer Spending:  Lower prices for essentials like vegetables and pulses mean more disposable income, which could spur consumption in a country where priv...