Do it yourself

The latest Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS ), released three weeks ago by the National Statistical office (NSO), provides some very useful insights into the current employment conditions in the country. The following are some of the key observations from the Survey report. Key definitions The Worker Population Ratio (WPR-U): Percentage of potential workers, i.e., the population aged between 15-60yr of age, in urban areas. The Worker Population Ratio (WPR-R): Percentage of potential workers, i.e., the population aged between 15-60yr of age, in rural areas. Youth WPR-U: Worker Population Ratio for population aged between 15-29yr in urban areas. Youth WPR-R: Worker Population Ratio for population aged between 15-29yr in rural areas. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR-U) is defined as the percentage of population offering or willing to work in urban areas, whether currently employed or unemployed. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR-R) is defined as the perce...

‘Climate Change’, ‘Clean Energy’, ‘Renewable Energy’ and ‘Sustainability’ have been the primary topics of discussions in most global summits, symposiums, bilateral and multilateral talks & agreements, political discourses, academic projects and even election campaigns for over a decade now. “The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015, also lays significant emphasis on “Affordable and Clean Energy”, “Sustainable Cities and Communities”, and “Climate Action”. Most countries have made significant progress in increasing the share of renewable/clean energy in their respective energy mix. Reportedly, in 2022 alone 268 GW of new solar energy capacity will be added worldwide. As per various estimates, globally, solar installations are expected to cross 300 GW in 2023. IEA expects global solar PV capacity to rise by nearly 1500 GW in the 2022-27 period, surpassing natural gas by 2026 and coal by 2027. ( see here ) As per the Internation...

Economic momentum further gained; Inflation and IIP at 4% (Phillips Capital) CPI eased to a 25-month low : CPI for May slowed to 4.25% (PC/Consensus estimate: 4.26%/4.31%) vs. 4.7% in the previous month and 7% a year ago. Sequentially, CPI registered 51bps increase as in the last month. Core CPI stable at 5.2% yoy as in the last month with sequential pace lower at 40bps vs. 60bps in the last month. Food inflation (heavy-weight) up by 62 bps mom vs. 51bps hike in the last month led by higher price for vegetables (3%), condiments (2%) and egg (2%). Fuel prices up by 0.6% mom vs. -0.1% deflation in the last two months. Clothing inflation pace stable at 0.3% mom as in the last month while pan/tobacco and housing price increase pace slowed to 0.2%/0.2%. Services inflation pace eased to 0.3% vs. 0.5% in the last month with highest increase in price for personal care (0.6%), medical care (0.4%), education (0.3%), recreation (0.3%), household requisites (0.3%) and transport & communicati...

  In India, the issue of labor migration has always been on the top of socio-economic and political agenda. The remittances from Indian workers in the foreign countries has been one of the primary sources of our current account financing. The issue of VISA for Indian students and workers (and their families) has remained one of the key contentions in our strategic diplomatic discussion with developed countries. Movies like Do Bigha Zamin (1953, Bimal Roy) have been raising the issue of migrant workers for a long time. Songs like Ae mere pyare watan (Movie Kabuliwala, 1961) Chithi aayi hai (Movie Naam, 1986) have been favorites with all generations. Political parties in the states like Maharashtra, Goa, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka etc. have been consistently raising the issue of migrants straining the local economy. During Covid-19 induced lockdown, the issue of mismanagement of reverse migration had become one of the top controversies; and still continues to haunt the incum...

  “No one was ever lost on a straight road.” Last time I wrote this was about 13 months ago when the Nifty was around 16000. The benchmark has gained over 17% since then. PSU Banks, FMCG, and Automobile sectors, which were not exactly favorites of market participants at that point in time, have been the top performers since then. The favorites of that time, e.g., Metals, Infrastructure, manufacturing, and digital have mostly performed in line with the benchmark or underperformed. I find it appropriate to reiterate and reemphasize it, to motivate me to stay true to my investment strategy and not get distracted by the market noise, buoyant arguments and gravity defying moves in a number of stocks. The conventional wisdom guides that roads are meant for moving forward and trampolines are meant to get momentary high without going anywhere. Usually, the chances of reaching the planned destination are highest if the traveler takes a straight road. The chances are the least if they ri...

All three major global credit rating agencies have assigned the lowest possible investment grade rating to India’s sovereign credit, placing India just one notch above the junk grade. For example, Moody’s Investors Services has assigned Baa3 (stable) rating to India’s sovereign credit, just one notch above the junk rating - C. The Government of India is making a strong pitch to the rating agencies for upgrade of sovereign credit, arguing that India’s economy is the fastest growing major economy in the world, with strong macroeconomic fundamentals. Many government officials, politicians and market participants have challenged the assessment of these ratings agencies often terming it as unfair. On the other hand, Moody’s Investors Services has recently flagged high public debt and risks of fiscal slippages ahead of general elections in 2024 to support their rating stance. Moody’s reportedly said, “As the government balances the commitment to longer-term fiscal sustainability against its ...

  RBI monetary policy statement highlights ·          Status quo on policy rates and monetary policy stance (withdrawal of accommodation). ·          The MPC resolved to continue keeping a close vigil on the evolving inflation and growth outlook. It will take further monetary actions promptly and appropriately as required to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored and to bring down inflation to the target. The MPC also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns with the target, while supporting growth. ·          Domestic economic activity remains resilient in Q1:2023-24 as reflected in high frequency indicators. Purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) for manufacturing and services indicated sustained expansion, with the manufacturing PMI at a 31-month high in May and services PMI at a 13-year high ...