Alternatives becoming less attractive

Thought for the day

” Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment.”

-          Buddha (563-483BC)

Word for the day

Ardor (n)

Great warmth of feeling; fervor; passion

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

All those who watched Salman Khan starrer "Kick" on weekend are still finding it painful to sit!

The movie is a part of Bhai and Nadiadwala's campaign against "sedentary lifestyle".

No pun intended.

Alternatives becoming less attractive

One of the primary conditions for a sustainable bull market in equities is relative lower expected return from alternatives like gold, fixed income, USD and oil etc.

In past six months return on Indian equities has materially outperformed gold, crude oil and USD. Considering that energy prices have remained mostly stable during recent war like situations in Ukraine and Palestine, and substantial rise in Non-OPEC oil supply in past couple of years, the general outlook of energy prices are not really bullish.

In view of the stability returning to global financial markets and US successfully unwinding its bond buying program, manly global brokerages like Goldman Sachs, SocGen etc. have extremely bearish outlook on gold prices.

The USD is becoming increasingly undervalued against most currencies. It is at a 40 years low on a real broad trade-weighted basis, it is not expected to appreciate in any big measures given that the Fed is suppressing real government bond yields through quantitative easing. Therefore, the USD will have to be more undervalued on a PPP basis to be in equilibrium. 

Domestically, With the new benchmark yield on the 10-year government securities coming in at 8.40% per annum, compared to the prevailing yield on the existing 10-year at 8.69%, fund managers and bond dealers expect the rate of interest to come down in the next few months. Since several lenders benchmark their lending rates to the 10-year gilt yield, changes in this benchmark rate leads to tweaking in lending rates in the market.

Equities therefore offer relatively better return profile at the moment!

Greed overwhelming fear

Thought for the day

”It seems, in fact, as though the second half of a man's life is made up of nothing, but the habits he has accumulated during the first half.”

-          Fyodor Dostoevsky (Russian, 1821-1881)

Word for the day

Farceur (n)

A joker; A wag

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

Will the caged parrot make his  master Sing?

Greed overwhelming fear

One of the critical condition for a sustainable bull market is the exuberance and optimism of investors and traders. Greed of investors and traders as defined by his eagerness to take higher risk for some extra return usually leads to PE rerating of the market. A greedy investor or trader ventures out of his comfort zone and explores newer opportunities. P&L, especially projected topline of P&L,  becomes the dominant evaluation matrix against the balance sheet in fearful days.

I identify this market condition from sharp performance of smallcap and midcap stocks versus benchmark indices.

From this angle, we are currently deep into a bull market. Though by strict technical parameters, NIFTY is very close to overbought zone and is more likely to correct in near term. The risk reward from 1-3months perspective is negative at 5-1 (downside 500points for an upside of 100points). The small and midcaps could correct even sharply. However from 3-5years perspective the risk reward is extremely favorable at 1-8 (500pts downside and 4000points upside).

Broader markets substantially outperformed post May election results

 

 

Sensex PE getting rerated

 

 

Low volatility - higher prices

Thought for the day

” There is no subject so old that something new cannot be said about it.”

-          Fyodor Dostoevsky (Russian, 1821-1881)

Word for the day

Laden (adj)

Burdened; loaded down.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

Could the Maharashtra Sadan event have material impact on Maharashtra state legislative elections scheduled later this year?

Low volatility - higher prices

For a bull market to occur many pre-conditions need to be satisfied. Some of these conditions could be listed as follows:

(a)   Lower volatility;

(b)   Greed overcoming fear;

(c)   Lower expected return from alternatives like gold and bonds;

(d)   Sustained improvement in corporate fundamentals, especially earnings growth led by pricing power (better margins not because of cost control) higher RoE (higher creditworthiness) and RoA (better capacity unitlization), and ability to raise funds at favorable terms;

(e)   Stable macro environment

(f)    Stable political environment

(g)   easy liquidity conditions.

Lower volatility - Positive

Implied volatility as measured by India VIX has shown a strong inverse correlation with Nifty in past 6years. The current rise in equity prices is accompanied by substantially lower implied volatility. This suggest that the recent rise in equity prices is sustainable and has more strength to move further up.

 

Put money on the table

Thought for the day

” Deprived of meaningful work, men and women lose their reason for existence; they go stark, raving mad.”

-          Fyodor Dostoevsky (Russian, 1821-1881)

Word for the day

Facsimile (n)

An exact copy, as of a book, painting, or manuscript.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

Is it right time for the Congress Party to transform into a federation of regional parties (Each state with its own Congress) versus a unified central command?. 

Put money on the table

Investment strategy, like any other, requires clear definition of goals and timeline for achieving those goals. The goals need to be defined considering the likely challenges on the way to achieving such goals. Defining goals which are subject to even foreseeable eventualities would make strategy a sub-standard piece of mere academic interest.

For example, an investment strategy which defines its goal as "to achieve 50% return over next three years subject to geo-political concern in middle east, recurrence of financial crisis in peripheral Europe, slow down in Chinese economy, spurt in global commodity prices, and failure of government in managing consumer inflation and therefore persistent high interest rates, etc." has little meaning

In my view, none of these eventualities would qualify as an black swan event notwithstanding the severity of their occurrence. In fact, as I write this morning, I find that all these absolutely are within the realm of possibilities and may occur during next three years.

An effective investment strategy needs to account for all these and define the goals accordingly.

Insofar as my investment strategy is concerned - it may be explained in two sentences.

(a)   Indian equities are in an uptrend that will last longer than any previous bull market. So I put my money on table.

(b)   Over next five years my portfolio should give returns 10% higher than the nominal GDP growth recorded during that period.

This strategy accounts for all likely eventualities, including

(i)    Rate hike by US Federal Reserve in winter of 2015,

(ii)   Fresh cold war between US and Russia intensifying further with decibel rising to all time high level before 2016 presidential elections.

(iii)   Frequent skirmishes in Middle East, and Pak-Afghanistan region as local forces compete with each other to capture the space vacated by US/NATO forces.

(iv)  China and Germany escalating effort to enhance their area of influence over global economy and strategic affairs. Remember the first world war broke out exactly 100years ago on 28th July 1914.

(v)   Inflation and rates persisting around current level for another year at least before showing a marginal tendency to come down.

(vI)  INR weakening gradually from current level and therefore the imported inflation continuing to bother policy makers and consumers alike.

To reiterate, in my view, Indian equity market is now meeting most conditions required for a sustainable bull market. I shall deal with some of these in next few days.

Money debasement is norm, tighter policy exception

Thought for the day

”It is not possible to eat me without insisting that I sing praises of my devourer?”

-          Fyodor Dostoevsky (Russian, 1821-1881)

Word for the day

Moniker (n)

A person's name, especially a nickname or alias.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

How Jaitley's "Growth for poverty" is different from Nehru's "unbalanced growth" model?

 

Money debasement is norm, tighter policy exception

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” - Milton Friedman

In classical economic theory inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. Seasonal factors or sudden supply shocks affect prices to a limited extent. Such instances of price rise are invariably temporary and self correcting.

In recent times, however we have seen multiple challenges to this classic economic theory of money and price equilibrium. Since 2008 most central banks, especially those in developed countries, have generally followed supper expansionary monetary policies.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) in particular have targeted higher inflation with unprecedented expansionary monetary policies. The effort so have yielded only marginal result. The inflation trajectory continues to remain much below the desired level both in Euro Area and Japan.

(Source: Ice Cap, shows money printed since 2008)

In Indian context, while money growth has remained high for two decades (M3 grew at 17.2% during 1991-2009), we have seen a distinct downtrend in recent years. Currently M3 growth stands close to 13%. In past few year, RBI has monetized just under one fourth of the fiscal deficit.

The price levels have remained stubborn despite tighter money policy. While the price rise could be partly explained by supply side bottleneck, seasonal factors, and global supply shocks due to geo-political concerns, the general rise in price levels over past one decade still needs explanation.

Consistent debasement of money has been a popular tool of successive governments in India. There appear to be no change in this policy paradigm, despite seemingly tighter policy followed in last couple of years. The stickiness of inflation needs to be seen in this context also.

Hope is a good thing...

Thought for the day

”The formula 'Two and two make five' is not without its attractions.”

-          Fyodor Dostoevsky (Russian, 1821-1881)

Word for the day

Mot juste (n)

The exact, appropriate word.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

Heard on Raisina Hills - "The real budget will be presented from the ramparts of Red Fort on 15th August. Arun Jaitley just fulfilled the accountant's job. Arundhati Roy is not wrong in calling Modi a totalitarian. But she has belittled herself by calling Mahatma 'Casteist'."

Be ready for market rally on 18th August!

Hope is a good thing...

The economic and political commentary last year emphasized a lot on positive impact of above average monsoon on the Indian economy, especially food inflation. Most had hoped that bumper crop would help bring down the persistent food inflation that would eventually lead to much needed monetary easing.

This was however not the case.

 In my view, to make agriculture a viable business and control food inflation on sustainable basis one or more of the three things need to happen, viz., (a) Substantial rise in productivity; (b) Substantial rise in price of agriculture produce; and/or (c) fall in price of agriculture land.

As of this morning, rise in general price level appears the foremost concern for the politician and common people alike.

There is a broader consensus that to restart the jammed investment cycle interest rates need to come down. Most also agree that it would not be possible to bring rate structure down on sustainable basis if general price levels do not show a definite down trend.

So far, we have heard some seriously concerned voices emanating from New Delhi. These do sound credible. However, we are yet to see a workable plan to bring prices down on sustainable basis. Various ministers and bureaucrats appear tentative in their thoughts and rely too much on hope that things will fall in place automatically - "global correction in commodity and energy prices", "further progress in monsoon", "curbs on hoarding will augment supply" etc.

A deeper study of the economics of Indian agriculture, would suggest that food inflation will only accelerate in next many years, even if things start changing at fast pace from today.

Currency debasement is the easiest and hence most popular tool to camouflage the fiscal profligacy of the government of day.

In next couple of days I shall to examine the structure of retail inflation in the country and suggest likely solution in my view.

I find In past one decade, the rise in the price of agriculture produce has lagged the rise in land prices significantly. Consequently, the yield on agriculture land has collapsed in most areas.

Land priced at Rs5-10lac an acre yields less than Rs75000/year for a medium and large farmer. For a small and marginal farmer the yield is Rs25000 to Rs50000 per acre/year, excluding the cost of self labor. If we adjust the yield for one crop loss every three year, lease rent and 24-30% interest that small and marginal farmer pays, agriculture is completely unviable business.

If we factor in rising labor cost and lower subsidy in input prices (fertilizer, electricity, diesel and water) the viability gap will likely only increase going forward.

A large majority of farmers in India are landless. Many of these farmers take land on lease. The rent varies from Rs5000/acre to 50% of produce. A lost crop puts such farmers in a debt trap that may take up to 5years to get out.

The next generation of landless farmer is therefore least likely to prefer agriculture over construction or industrial labor. Availability of agriculture labor is likely to shrink even further from the current alarming levels.

Given the low returns, the current generation of medium and large farmers is also not much interested in taking farming as occupation. Most would want to sell the land or convert it into non-agriculture land. Given the uneconomical holding size, low yields, unavailability of formal credit, and lack of interest in large farmers, mechanization of agriculture is not happening at desired pace.

...to continue tomorrow