Do it yourself

The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report confirms what has been feared for the past few years – Indian population is peaking and Indians are getting older much ahead of the original estimates. The birth rate (number of new births in a year per 1000 population) has been declining consistently for the past many years, and the trend has accelerated post Covid (2021). The death rate (number of deaths per year for every 1000 population) has slowed down. In fact, the urban death rate has climbed after Covid. The infant mortality rate (number of new born children dying within a year, per 1000 live births) has improved materially in the past one decade, but still remains much below the global standards. Sex ratio also stays adverse for all larger states/UTs. India's total fertility rate (average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime), or TFR, slipped from 2.1 in 2019 to 1.9 in 2023, below the replacement level (ratio required to keep the population lev...

Last week I highlighted a few larger global trends that are not getting their due attention in the popular market narratives  ( see Gorillas in the Room ) . Today, I want to draw the attention of the market participants towards a major India specific trend that shall have far reaching implications for the Indian economy and therefore Indian markets. “Favourable demographics” has been inarguably one of the major themes of the Indian economy and markets for the past two decades. The latest round of National Family Health Survey (5th Round - 2019-21) highlights that this theme might soon run out of currency and demographic dividend (income) might get replaced by demographic interest (expense). India to become older sooner than previously expected The total fertility rate (TFR) for India is already below the replacement threshold. TFR indicates the average number of children a woman is likely to bear during the age between 15 to 49 years. As per the global standards a TFR of 2.1 ...