Do it yourself

Assumptions Have Consequences (John Mauldin) Remember National Lampoon’s Vacation? It was a 1983 comedy film in which suburban dad Clark Griswold (Chevy Chase) takes his family on a cross-country road trip to the fabled Walley World amusement park. Clark made one critical mistake, though. He assumed Walley World would be open and waiting for them. This was to be the family’s reward for a long, stressful journey. His assumption was...incorrect. Many have noted the word’s first three letters hint at how assumption can make an ass out of u and me. Yet we must assume some things or life becomes impossible. Assumptions can be wise or unwise. They can be unduly optimistic or excessively pessimistic. Slightly different assumptions can produce giant changes in predicted outcomes. Assumptions are necessary but we shouldn’t make them lightly, nor forget we are making them. This is important because assumptions abound in our assessments of the economy and markets. They tend to sort of f...

As promised yesterday, my technical view of Indian equities is as follows. The readers need to note that I am just an armature student of stocks markets and not a professional technical or fundamental analyst. The following view is based on the combination of technical studies I often used for determining my entry and exit points. This analysis is also one of the parameter in review of my asset allocation strategy; though it does not carry any significant weight in this exercise. General Overall I believe that the up move that started from the panic bottom of 7610 (Nifty closing) recorded on 23 March 2020, could continue for few more weeks. In this up move, broader markets have materially outperformed the benchmark indices. In this up move The Nifty Small Cap 100 index has gained ~75%, while Nifty 50 (+52%) and Nifty Midcap 100 (+57%) have lagged. The market breadth has accordingly been significantly positive. As the up move enters its last phase in next 2-4 weeks, the trend ma...