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Showing posts with the label Dot plot

Higher for longer

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) unanimously decided to hike the key bank rate by 50bps to 4.25%-4.5% target range, the highest since 2007. From near zero in the beginning of the year, this is perhaps the sharpest rise in rates in one calendar year. In the customary post meeting press conference, the Fed chairman Jerome Powell emphasized on the commitment to rein inflation. He said, “we still have some ways to go” and “I wouldn’t see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” indicating that rates will rise in 2023, though not at the same speed as 2022. The Fed chairman reiterated, “It is our judgment today that we are not at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance yet,” adding “We will stay the course until the job is done.” The Fed Chairman had stated after the November FOMC meeting that the pace of tightening is less significant than the peak and the duration of rates...

FOMC, Dot Plot and Exit Polls

 About a quarter of a century ago, I had just joined a midsized investment banking firm. My team of three people was assigned a mandate for IPO of a real estate company. We worked very hard (of course on our Excel Sheets and without the help of Saint Google) on the mandate and prepared a proposal which suggested that IPO may be priced in the band of Rs12-15. After the initial presentations were made, the team went to the promoter with the promoter of our firm for final presentation. After a detailed slide show was made, our boss told us to excuse them for 10minutes. After 10minutes, our boss came out and instructed, “IPO is in Rs28-30 band, prepare to file the documents for approvals.” This being my first experience, for a moment I was in a position of shock. I found the pricing ridiculous. I even told my senior that this IPO cannot be sold at this price. My senior who had experienced many such situations before just smiled and told me to shut my mouth and get on the job. Eventua...