Bihar assembly elections concluded last week with the incumbent NDA government registering an astounding victory, belying all expectations of anti-incumbency; a strong show by the opposition alliance (MGB); and a surprise by JSP (Jan Suraaj Party), floated by election strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor. Almost every exit poll and ground report got Bihar 2025 spectacularly wrong. The NDA’s landslide was not a wave — it was an annihilation.
In my view, the result was a foregone conclusion for anyone who looked beyond Twitter trends and Tejashwi’s viral reels. Numerous independent forecasters, reporters and experts, who claimed to have spent weeks “on the ground”, completely failed to assess the likely outcome of the elections.
The opposition alliance completely lacked seriousness, strategy and resources; notwithstanding the social media noise. The new challenger JSP lacked resources and credibility (was mostly seen as a BJP agent put up to cut into opposition votes). They were no match for the massive deployment of M7 (Meticulous planning, Men, Machine, Media, Money, Mandir and Modi) Force by the incumbent NDA. Besides, they managed the most relevant M2 (Muslim and Mahila) extremely well through tactically supporting AIMIM and offering cash to women, just ahead of elections. More than 100 MPs of BJP spent weeks campaigning in the hinterland. Several of the Chief Ministers of BJP ruled states held dozens of rallies across the state. NDA had appointed multiple booth agents several weeks in advance.
The opposition leaders, Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav mostly resorted to gimmicks; and “hoped” for anti-incumbency to work in their favor. They could neither adequately highlight the failures of the incumbent Chief Minister (almost 20 years), nor present a coherent and credible agenda for development.
After this headline comment, I would like to share some of my impressions about Bihar, made during a short visit to the state.
· The socio-economic milieu of Bihar is uncannily similar to the broader picture of India. For example, most educated youth are eager to migrate out of the state - NCR, Bengaluru and Mumbai being the most coveted destinations, just like the educated youth from “developed” states look to immigrate overseas. Most rich people have invested in real estate and businesses outside the state, just like rich people from Delhi and Mumbai buying real estate in UAE, Portugal, and UK etc. Most aspire to send their children to study in schools and colleges outside the state, just like people in other states aspire a “foreign degree” for their wards.
· Migrated Biharis, who are well settled in other states make references to the rich culture, heritage and resource pool of Bihar, in the same manner as NRIs settled overseas, with no intent to return, invest or otherwise contribute to their cherished homeland.
· Election in Bihar is a distinct, stand-alone spectacle event, totally disconnected from the regular life of the local populace. Most treat it like a once in five-year village fair, where artists from outside come and perform. They get a chance to feast and enjoy dance performances. In the end they vote for the best orchestra performance, and return to their routine life.
· A disturbing chunk of Bihar’s wildly popular Bhojpuri music, cinema and ‘orchestra’ programmes revolves around double-meaning lyrics, voyeuristic camera angles and incest-themed humor that would be cancelled in many other states. A noticeable section of Bihar’s youth—especially in semi-urban and rural pockets—consume a worrying volume of low-quality, hyper-sexualized Bhojpuri content, which shapes attitudes and aspirations in ways that deserve deeper study. In most village orchestra performances (election rallies, puja pandals, marriages etc.) that I witnessed, and in several popular Bhojpuri music videos I watched, this was a common theme. This section of youth may be susceptible to get trapped in a PIT (addiction to Porn, Incest and Tobacco).
· Liquor ban has helped several households. Particularly, women in these households are grateful to the administration for saving their families. However, implementation of the prohibition policy is definitely not commendable. The cases of spurious liquor, smuggling from neighboring states, and corruption in enforcement are not uncommon.
· The biggest paradox of Bihar is that it has one of the most aware populations (socially, culturally, politically, and economically); but only a few seem to be exercising their rights. You may find farmers who can quote Amartya Sen on entitlement failure but will not protest when their PMAY house is delayed by five years and a ₹50,000 bribe is demanded. They have accepted corruption, non-performance, apathy, and indifference of administration as a fait accompli. Rhetoric during the festival of elections apart, it is hard to find people raising voice for their rights.
· Rural housing and rural roads have been the best performing government schemes in Bihar, though it is not uncommon to hear complaints of corruption in these two programs also. Collapsing bridges, stolen roads, schools, primary health centers, etc. in Bihar are all part of the social media folklore.
Overall, my impression is that Bihar today is India’s most politically sophisticated state trapped in an economically prehistoric age. Until private capital sees profit, until a real entrepreneurial class emerges from within (not just Delhi-returned IAS officers’ sons), and until Biharis start punishing non-performance instead of rewarding freebies and identity, progress might remain incremental, corrupt, and cruelly slow.
