The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report confirms what has been feared for the past few years – Indian population is peaking and Indians are getting older much ahead of the original estimates.
The birth rate (number of new births in a year per 1000 population) has been declining consistently for the past many years, and the trend has accelerated post Covid (2021). The death rate (number of deaths per year for every 1000 population) has slowed down. In fact, the urban death rate has climbed after Covid. The infant mortality rate (number of new born children dying within a year, per 1000 live births) has improved materially in the past one decade, but still remains much below the global standards. Sex ratio also stays adverse for all larger states/UTs.
India's total fertility rate (average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime), or TFR, slipped from 2.1 in 2019 to 1.9 in 2023, below the replacement level (ratio required to keep the population level stable) of 2.1. The decline is sharper in cities, where fertility has fallen to just 1.5, compared with 2.1 in villages in 2023.
Declining birth rate, stagnating death rate, high infant mortality and TFR below replacement ratio, and persistent adverse sex ratio, implies that (i) India’s population would begin to decline much before earlier estimated 2050-2055; (ii) the average population age would begin to rise in the next one decade; and consequently (iii) the much talked about demographic dividend might begin to wane the next few years.
Key highlights of the report are as follows:
· The Birth Rate (BR) at the National level during 2023 was 18.4, a decline of 1.6 points over 2018. The BR in urban areas declined by 1.8 points while in rural areas decline was less at 1.3 points. Among the bigger States/UTs, the maximum BR has been reported in Bihar (25.8) and the minimum in Tamil Nadu (12.0).
· The Death Rate (DR) for the Country was 6.4 in 2023. Among the bigger States/UTs, the maximum DR has been reported for Chhattisgarh (8.3) and the minimum for Delhi (4.5).
· The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) for India was 25 in 2023, down from 32 in 2018. The corresponding decline in rural IMR has been to the tune of 8 points (36 in 2018 to 28 in 2023) against a decline of 5 points in urban IMR (23 in 2018 to 18 in 2023). This implies that one in every 36 infants in rural areas and one in every 56 infants in urban areas still die within one year of the birth.
Among the bigger States/UTs, the maximum IMR was observed in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh (37) and the minimum in Kerala (5). For comparison, China has an IMR of 5, Germany 3, Bangladesh 24, Cambodia 20, Congo 28, Iraq 21, and Pakistan 50. The global average for IMR is 27.
· Sex ratio (Female per 1000 male) in the country stood at 917 in 2023. Amongst the larger states, Chhattisgarh and Kerala have reported the highest Sex Ratio at Birth at 974 and 971 respectively, while Uttarakhand has the lowest (868). Sex Ratio at Birth for Rural and Urban areas was 914 and 925 respectively.
· The life expectancy at birth for India has been estimated at 70.3 years for the period 2019-23, an increase of 0.4 years from 2018-22. The life expectancy at birth varies from 64.6 in Chhattisgarh to 75.1 in Kerala. The life expectancy at birth is 69.1 years in rural areas and 73.1 years in urban areas for 2019-23. The life expectancy has increased by 0.5 years for rural and by 0.2 years in urban areas as compared to 2018-22
· The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for the Country stood at 1.9 in 2023. Bihar reported the highest TFR at 2.8, while Delhi recorded the lowest at 1.2. States like Tamil Nadu (1.3), West Bengal (1.3), Kerala (1.5), Punjab (1.5), Himachal Pradesh (1.6), Maharashtra (1.4), Andhra Pradesh (1.5), Jammu & Kashmir (1.5), Karnataka (1.5), Telangana (1.5), Odisha (1.7), Uttarakhand (1.7), Gujarat (1.8), Haryana (1.9), Assam (2.0) recorded TFR below replacement rate of 2.1.
At present, a rural woman (having a TFR of 2.1) at the National level would have about one child more than an urban woman (having a TFR of 1.5), on average.
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