Not bothering about prophecies, for now

I vividly remember it was the winter of 2007. The global markets were in a state of total disarray. The subprime crisis was unfolding in the developed world.

In the US, the financial system was on the verge of collapse. Several banks, insurers, and other financial institutions were reporting massive write-downs on their subprime Collateralized Borrowing and Lending Obligations (CBLO). The cost of protecting debt (Credit Default Swaps) was rising sharply. The US administration and Federal Reserve were mostly in denial, at least in their public posturing; even though the Fed had started to cut the benchmark fund rates from September 2007.

Signs of a sovereign debt crisis had started emerging in peripheral Europe. In countries like Portugal, Iceland, Greece, and Spain (popularly called PIGS) treasury default swaps had spiked to indicate imminent default.

The financial markets in the developed world had started correcting sharply. Both equity and bond prices had fallen. The emerging markets were however doing relatively better. The investment strategists at the large global banks were coining terms like BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and Frontier Markets (including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bahrain, etc.) to distract investors from the crisis in the developed markets and peripheral Europe. Many of these markets like India and Pakistan had become the best-performing global markets in the October 2007-January 2008 period. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka had also done extremely well.

Despite the financial system in the developed markets collapsing and talks of bail-out gaining currency, a section of the market started forecasting hyperinflation, matched only by the inflation preceding the great depression in the 1930s. The resource-rich Latin America was becoming the hot investment theme. Numerous Latin America and Natural Resource funds were launched to collect billions of dollars in fresh investment worldwide.

This was the time when a renowned commodity guru, Jim Roger forecasted an unprecedented commodity super-cycle. I had an opportunity to meet him in person in the spring of 2008 when he was speaking at the prelaunch event of the Natural Resource Fund by an Indian fund house in Mumbai. In a brief 15-minute interaction, I found his knowledge of economics, global finance, and strategic affairs quite ordinary. He appeared to be a smart trader who would sense opportunity in commodities markets and rotate his positions swiftly.

Nevertheless, all the assumptions of global experts and gurus were demolished in the next 12 months. BRIC and Frontier markets performed the worst. Commodity markets went into a long (almost a decade) bearish phase. Investors who relied on these experts lost money, despite the financial stability returning to most troubled countries. Smarter investors who ignored these experts and invested in Greek and Italian bonds at 60c to a dollar raked in the mullah.

I find that the global markets are in the same position as they were in 2007-2008. Experts in their wisdom are making a variety of forecasts.

For example, numerous experts are forecasting the trajectory of Fed rates in 2024 and 2025; even though there is no empirical evidence of any correlation between Fed decisions and experts’ forecasts.

One renowned global strategist has reportedly forecasted a 25% correction in Indian equities if the incumbent regime loses power in the 2024 general elections. Disregarding the fact that there is no empirical evidence of any correlation between political regime and stock market performance in India.

Similarly, there are forecasts of Bitcoin topping US$1,00,000/per coin; gold outperforming financial assets; and Japanese equities doing better than Europe and the US.

There is an intense debate over the US economy skirting (no recession), slithering (soft landing) or collapsing (hard landing) into a recession. The debate on the end game for mountains of debt developed markets have accumulated over the past 15 years, more particularly in the past three years is also intense.

For a tiny investor like me, the situation is very tough. After reading zillions of pages of research, I discovered almost no one (analysts, economists, strategists, government officials, central bankers, et. al.) has any clue about how the situation is evolving. Everyone seems to be arguing from their biases and experiences; and praying to god that their prophesies come true so that they can tell the world “I told ya so”.

The Fed chairman is no exception to this. As you would hear from him tonight, he has literally no control over prices, growth, geopolitical situation, and markets. Regardless, there is an entire industry that will try to establish a correlation between what the Fed says and what happens in the market thereafter.

I have therefore decided to read research reports only for some useful data points and indications towards future trends. I shall avoid the forecasts, conclusions and recommendations, till I find strong evidence of clarity emerging.