Wednesday, March 30, 2022

BRIC may become the world’s growth engine again

I am pleasantly surprised to see an overwhelming response to my random thoughts on geopolitics, economy, businesses and markets shared through yesterday’s post (see Market’s tryst with reality). Even more surprising is the fact that all respondents are in agreement with my thoughts. This has happened for the first time since I started writing this blog.

Some respondents have taken the discussion further and raised some issues. I find it pertinent to address these issues and offer some more random thoughts in this context.

Some have asked for more examples of arch rivals burying their hatchet and coming together for a common good. There are numerous examples of such deals in corporate history. Some notable ones include BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto; Kraft Heinz, Glaxo Smithkline, Unilever; Pfizer, Allergen, Astra Zeneca and Gilead Sciences; Altria and Phillip Morris; Broadcom and Qualcom; Barclays and ABN Amro; Merril Lynch and Bank of America; Shenhua and China Guodian Corp; AB InBev and SABMiller; Holcim and Lafarge; Bayer and Monsanto; BAT and RTC; AOL and Time Warner; Vodafone and Mannesmann; Exxon and Mobil, etc.

Going beyond these specific instances of corporate alliances, on a broader level I would like to highlight three instances.

1.    The global financial crisis in 2008-09 froze the global markets and threatened the worst ever depression in recorded history of world economics. Sensing the disastrous consequences, all the global rivals came together and pursued a common monetary and fiscal policy, pulling the global economy from the brink of disaster in no time.

2.    In Hindu mythology, after exhausting all their resources, power and vigor in a protracted battle, the forces of good (Sura) and evil (Asura) came together to explore the Ocean (Sagar Manthan) to find new resources, elixir for revitalization. The exploration was a highly successful endeavor, immensely enriching and strengthening the forces of good.

3.    The Covid-19 pandemic locked the entire humanity inside their home. Scientists from all over the world collaborated and multiple vaccines were developed in less than two years. Within two years, most of the world is now open for travel, trade and commerce. Never in human history has a vaccine been developed in such a short span of time.

The point therefore is that when a crisis brings the archrivals together on the same side, the results are mostly brilliant. This brings up a follow up inquisition. The Russia-Ukraine war is reviving the specters of World War and Cold War. This is happening at a time when the global economy is facing headwinds of supply chain disruption; tightening money and dwindling demand. The world is polarizing on geopolitical issues. Non-Cooperation, rather than alignment is a more likely scenario.

I am not sure about this non-cooperation thing. Notwithstanding the weapon and money being supplied to Ukraine by western countries, there is no indication of any willingness to escalate the conflict through direct involvement of more countries. This shows a good understanding of the current tough conditions and strong promise to promote global cooperation.

I believe that this conflict will bring BRIC closure and create a powerful growth engine for the world. The complementing economies and strengths of BRIC countries offer a viable solution to most of the crises the global economy is facing presently. Certainly, the next 5years will break many myths.


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