Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Indian Equities: outlier and susceptible to overreaction



Some food for thought
"It is questionable if all the mechanical inventions yet made have lightened the day's toil of any human being."
—John Stuart Mill (English Philosopher, 1806-1873)
Word for the day
Scaturient (adj)
Gushing; overflowing.
 
First thought this morning
I was quite bewildered, looking at the admission statistics in various colleges of Delhi University in recent years. For a course like B.Com (Hons) or BA (Economics) which require virtually no additional infrastructure besides a classroom, the 12th standard cut off percentage varies from 82% to 97%. For colleges which charge almost 5x fee from the minimum, and are located in North campus of the University (at great distance from East, West and South parts of the city), craze is much highest.
Some colleges affiliated to the university have been established by private trusts and managed by the trustees, while other colleges/departments have been established by the Delhi or Central government and managed by the managing committees appointed by the government. The fee to be charged from students for a particular course varies from college to college. However, in general fee for undergraduate courses range from Rs5500 to Rs30000 per annum.
All teachers in the university are likely paid the same salaries. In case of colleges established by private trusts, about 90% of the total expenses are borne by the government and the rest is met through the charges from student. Most colleges have similar facilities for students in terms of sports infrastructure, science labs, libraries etc.
Regardless, all colleges/departments in the university follow the same curriculum and governed by the same rules and regulations of UGC and Delhi University. But still some colleges consistently attract high scoring students. Naturally these are the colleges which attract better recruiters also. And this vicious cycle continues year after year, widening the divide between students and therefore society. I think this academic apartheid needs to end.
The only point of differentiation between colleges, besides perception, I could think of is quality of teachers. In my view, it is high time to review the entire admission and academic processes in Delhi University, and all other Universities where similar situation exist. The following suggestions may be considered. These may sound radical to many. Nonetheless, I believe these are implementable if desired.
(a)   The admission process must be fully centralized. All students should be required to apply to a central office, without naming any college. An algorithm may be developed that should allocate college to each qualifying student based mostly on proximity to his residence, choice of course.
(b)   All the available teachers in the university should also be similarly required to apply to the central pool every year, and the algorithm should randomly assign teachers to various colleges.
(c)    The businesses willing to hire students from the university should also approach to the central pool, which shall use the algorithm to assign a group of students to the recruiters (based on their specification excluding the name of college) to choose from.
(d)   All future recruitments of teachers should be made by a central authority with no involvement of colleges. The colleges may though make request for faculty with specific qualifications.
(e)    Universities across the country should be encouraged to sign a faculty exchange program, whereby teachers can gain experience of working in different states to gain a wider perspective.
Indian Equities: outlier and susceptible to overreaction
Indian equity markets have welcomed the outcome of exit polls for recently concluded general elections. Benchmark indices have scaled new peaks. Broader markets have also recouped some of the losses in past couple days.
Indian equities have yielded best returns amongst major global markets.
However, as per preliminary analysis done by Business Standard, "Corporate India looks set to disappoint investors for the second quarter in a row, defying D-Street prediction of strong earnings growth during the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2018-19 (FY19). The combined net profit of 564 companies (excluding financials and energy), which have declared their results for the January-March 2019 quarter, is down 10.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY), their worst showing in at least 12 quarters.
The combined net sales of this universe was up 9 per cent YoY in Q4FY19, growing at the slowest pace in six quarters, hinting at a demand slowdown in the economy." (Business Standard)
Accordingly, on the valuation map, India now appears an outlier and susceptible to overreaction in case of an adverse event.
 
 

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