Some food for thought
"He said it was artificial respiration, but now I find I am
to have his child."
—Anthony Burgess (English Novelist, 1917-1993)
Word for the day
Evenfall (n)
Twilight; dusk; the beginning of evening
First thought this morning
Indian Air Force avenged the Pulwama attack adequately.
Penetrating deep into the Pakistan territory (not just PoK), our fighter planes
destroyed JeM camps. The performance was meticulous, worthy of a force which is
comparable to the best in world. All citizens must be feel proud and safe.
The early reactions to the strikes from various sections are
noteworthy, as these reactions indicate to some important trends.
(a) Pakistan Army
admitted the transgression, but denied any damage. They claimed that
transgressing Indian Air Force planes were forced to shed "payload"
in vacant land and run back. The adventurous attempt therefore has been successfully
repelled.
This official reaction came much before any claim was made by
any Indian official.
Obviously, Pakistan establishment is worried about its
credibility and also preparedness of war, both economically and strategically.
They are hence eager to preempt any adverse public opinion that might force
them to retaliate without any preparedness.
Secondly, regardless of all the rhetoric, Pakistan is certainly
not willing to escalate the matter further. Most voices in Pakistan media
called for peace and dialogues.
(b) Almost every
opposition leaders in India commended IAF for the successful operation, much
before any official statement was made.
It appears that almost all of them were suffering from the guilt
of challenging the authenticity of surgical strikes of September 2016. They
used this opportunity to remove the label of "anti national" pasted
on them by BJP and allied organization. To this extent, it is clear that BJP
has been largely successful in setting the narrative and agenda.
(c) By making this
overt operation, the Indian establishment has also made sure that the situation
does not get escalated any further. The government has effectively calmed all
the feathers that got ruffled post Pulawama attacks.
Chart of the day
Where India stanmds in Sino-US trade war
For past many months, the trade related disputes between two of
the largest global economic powers have kept markets busy.
USA has announces several measures to reduce its trade deficit
with China, including imposition of import duties on imports from China. The
impact of the measures is visible in slowing Chinese growth and declining
global trade. The exports of US to China have also suffered. The collateral is
that the trade surplus of EU, Japan and Australia etc with China has further
increased.
The financial markets have reacted wildly to each sign of truce
and antagonism between the two super powers. Currently markets are running up,
rather hard, fueled by the signs of thaw.
Notwithstanding the market volatility, as a small Indian
investor, who is entirely focused on domestic assets, I find the following
issues pertinent for examination.
(1) Would India
benefit from escalation of trade war between US & China, or complete
normalization of trade relation between US and China; or continuation of
current state of indecision and tentativeness?
(2) If not resolved
soon, would the trade conflict between China and US, remained confined to trade
or escalate further into a geo-political crisis?
(3) If the trade war
escalates, and both the parties harden their positions, will we have a cold war
kind of situation again, polarizing the world again?
All our neighbors (Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka,
Maldives, Mauritius, Myanmar) have shown their inclination to side with China.
Under these circumstances, what would be in the best interest of India? Should
India side with US, because of lot of legacy issues siding with China may not
be an option, or stay non-aligned?
(4) In next few
months, Europe might also see a new equation emerging. Notwithstanding, UK
dithering on Brexit, a realignment of forces in Europe looks more likely. Under
these circumstances, could we see support for China in Europe, especially from
beleaguered economies like Italy and Greece?
(5) Would a full US
China deal reinvigorate the struggling global growth, and bring back inflation
and higher rates?
Given that I am no expert on global financial markets,
international relations, global economics and most other subjects, I would be
contended to rely upon the views of the "experts".
Intuitively, I feel the US China dispute is not about trade,
which is only incidental. The real issue is whether China will be allowed an
entry in elite global club or not.
Therefore, regardless of the outcome of Summit on Friday, the
condition may not normalize, until US begins to consult China before invading a
country like Iraq, the way it does consult with UK and France. At best the deal
on Friday would be temporary relief till a new flash point gets triggered.
I would be examining these issues in some detail over next few
months to assess the impact on my investment strategy.
In the meantime, I shall be delighted to receive comments, views
and opinions of readers on these issues.
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